The fate of the Saudi initiative for Middle East peace does not rest in Arab hands: all major Arab governments accept it. Its chances lie, rather, with the Americans and the Israelis. If the former push it and the latter see it as the only way of breaking the cycle of violence and allowing them to live in peace and security, then it may succeed.
Encouragingly, there is circumstantial evidence that both these necessary keys to the plan’s success have been brought into play. One piece of evidence is the change in Washington’s language. President Bush last week publicly called on the Israelis to make compromises — a marked departure from previous White House statements which entirely blamed the Palestinians for the present situation. Then there is Washington’s decision to send negotiator Anthony Zinni back to the region: until now the White House had gone along with Ariel Sharon’s demand for seven-day moratorium, saying that until such a precondition was met, there was no point in sending him back. Now it says that the violence is such that he has to go back. Lastly there is Sharon’s change of tune — his twin announcement lifting the blockade on Chairman Yasser Arafat and that he no longer insists on seven days of non-violence as a precondition to talks. It is difficult to believe that he would make such volte-face without American pressure.
But that cannot alone account for it. Israeli public opinion almost certainly is an equal factor in the equation. His popularity has plummeted as ordinary Israelis blame him for stirring up the violence. At the moment, it is too early to talk about his coalition unraveling: yesterday’s defection by ultraright-wing MPs in protest at change on the seven-day policy and Arafat’s blockade is not going to bring him down. But he cannot afford such a public mood swing. He knows that others in the coalition — most obviously the Labour party — will pull out if he is seen to be damaged.
No one should have any delusions about Sharon despite his apparent softening. This is a man who, for years, has been implacably opposed to a Palestinian state and whose principle policy since becoming prime minister has been to prevent one from ever becoming reality. He is, moreover, someone who, as long as ago as the massacres in Sabra and Shatilla, has firmly believed that he can terrorize the Palestinians into submission. The fact that such a policy cannot work has not registered with him, nor is it ever likely to do so. If he now appears to talk in softer tones, it is not because he has changed his mind, it is because he wants to play for time.
Sharon is almost certain to try and play for time — pretending to talk about peace but in reality doing nothing. We have all seen it before — as have the Palestinians. They will not tolerate any further false dawns. The violence will continue until there is an unambiguous proposal on the table. The question now, therefore, is whether Washington will go along with Sharon’s tactics. Or will it have the nerve to force the pace?
Its credibility in the Arab and Islamic worlds is already dangerously stretched. Unfortunately, all the signs are that the White House now pays no attention to what anyone outside the US thinks.
