While the Middle East has begun to despair of peace in the foreseeable future, some other peoples involved in long-running conflicts are beginning to hope that war could be ending for them. Angola is one example. After 27 years of civil war it looks that peace is coming there. The memorandum of understanding just signed between the Angolan Army and UNITA rebels would seem to indicate that it is. However there is much that can still go wrong and peace must not be thought inevitable.
The late leader of the Angolan rebel movement, Jonas Savimbi, was once the darling the West. However, after the end of the Cold War, the Western material support rapidly dried up. He was persuaded by his Western sponsors to take part in elections at which UNITA candidates did not win the majority he hoped for. After an uneasy period in the capital Luanda, Savimbi and his top henchmen returned to the bush. Not very long after that, the uneasy truce that had preceded the elections broke down and the civil war, which has now cost more than half-a-million lives, was on again in earnest.
Savimbi had come to prominence during the bitter 14-year struggle against Portuguese occupation. However, the idealism with which he began his rebellion clearly evaporated during his long period as its leader. As his power base shrank, he became ever more autocratic. He was able to maintain his rebellion only because his people controlled a large part of Angola’s diamond production.
It is this very real jewel in the crown of UNITA rebellion that may yet sabotage these latest moves toward peace. Not all top UNITA leaders have publicly backed the memorandum. Significantly, Paulo Lukamba “Gato”, the man long seen as Savimbi’s successor, absented himself from the signing.
The problem with rebel movements is that, over time, the original cause becomes forgotten in the day-to-day business of military maneuverings. For Gato and UNITA hard-liners like him, the rebellion has become a way of life. The fixed obligations of a political existence in Luanda probably do not appeal. He and those like him only know how to work rebellion, how to cream off money from illegal diamond exports and how to achieve what they want through the use of fear and brutality.
The future now rests with Gen. Abreu Muengo Ucuatchitembo “Kamorteiro”, UNITA’s commander in chief, who signed this week’s memorandum with his opposite number in the Angolan army. If Gato really is likely to raise a fresh flag of rebellion with supporters taken from the main UNITA forces, then Kamorteiro needs to move fast. He must risk a serious split within his movement, by acting swiftly against Gato and those who reject peace. They must be placed in a position where they cannot sabotage the long-overdue end to this now useless conflict.
There is much wrong with the Luanda administration of President Eduardo dos Santos, whose Marxist predecessors ran the country into the economic ground. Nevertheless, the way to bring about change and to realize the immense economic potential of this mineral-rich country is by working within the political system, not outside it.
