The world reached a crossroads in April. The decisions made by the US administration of George W. Bush, the European Union, the Arab League states, the United Nations and Israel will change the dynamics of the Middle East in far-reaching ways.
The most dramatic action concerns Israel. With Secretary of State Colin Powell’s scheduled arrival on April 11, the Jewish state has a difficult decision to make. Under duress, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon began to withdraw his forces from two towns. Bush has told Sharon, however, that his forces must withdraw from all Palestinian towns it has occupied on the West Bank. There is no doubt that Sharon now is watching very carefully to see what Bush will do.
Will Bush insist that Sharon leave immediately, or will the American president back down? At stake is Bush’s prestige and his steady determination that Sharon carry out his orders. It seems likely, however, that Sharon will defy Bush and proceed with what his generals say may be at least eight more weeks of occupation and destruction. Thus, it seems, the Israelis and the United States may have reached an impasse.
Until this confrontation loomed, Sharon’s policies appeared to be going the way he planned. The “Butcher of Beirut” knew that as long as he continued his hard-line strategy, he would not have to worry about being outflanked from the right. Sharon, who lives for the moment, planned to continue his bulldozer course and leave the complications that ensued to be dealt with in the future.
Bush, however, has to worry about tomorrow as well as today, and Sharon’s plans do not coincide with Bush’s. Bush either will have to adapt to Sharon’s plans or insist on having his way. It will be up to Colin Powell to find a face-saving formula for Sharon, or the confrontation will begin.
Like his predecessors, Bush wanted to postpone any major crisis until his second term. It now appears, however, that this crisis won’t wait.
If Bush backs down and is perceived as giving Sharon the green light, the entire world will realize that the Israeli lobby is making US foreign policy. The president also is concerned with his friends on the Christian right who are part of the Bush coalition. While Sharon is interested solely in remaining in power, Bush must decide which course of action is most important to him and useful for his electoral prospects. On the one side, the Christian right will remain appeased along with the Israelis. On the other side, however, if Bush backs down, he will unleash an amazing number of unintended consequences.
The European Union might begin a boycott, with negative consequences to everyone. This would also force Britain to choose between staying in line with the other EU countries or trying to go it alone with Bush.
The Arab League, meanwhile, has made a fateful decision of its own. Crown Prince Abdullah, having shepherded the entire Arab League into the most reasonable solution for the Arab-Israeli dispute, now must devise actions to fit the League’s words.
An eventual boycott may be inevitable. Iraq already has instigated its own oil boycott, and other Arab states may be forced to follow Baghdad’s lead. If that does not suffice, another possibility would be for Gulf governments to close down the air bases used by the US. This would, in effect, show that the US no longer can find any friends in the Middle East, at least among Arab League countries.
Meanwhile, the situation in the West Bank has gone from painful to catastrophic. Since September 2000, at least 1,419 Palestinians and 412 Israelis have been killed. The Israeli Army has detained some 2,000 people and released 700. This represents an intolerable humanitarian crisis.
Contradictions abound. For example, Adam Shapiro, a Jewish international aide worker from New York, became trapped overnight in Arafat’s Ramallah headquarters when he helped evacuate some wounded members from the compound. Arafat invited him to share his breakfast of bread, cheese and cucumbers. When journalists picked up the story and published it in the United States, Shapiro’s family in Brooklyn received defamatory hate mail and threats from American Jews. After frightening phone calls promising a “ death”, they fled their home and took refuge in a hotel.
The Sharon-Bush drama is being played out against the Israeli prime minister’s secret agenda. Sharon always has been on the lookout for a chance finally to realize his plan of pushing the Palestinians totally out of the occupied territory. In Black September of 1970, the Israelis offered to “help” Jordan with its Palestinian problem. The Israelis hoped at that time to find an opportunity to “transfer” all the Palestinians out of the West Bank and into Jordan. Unfortunately for Sharon, the chaotic position righted itself before Jordan could be totally destabilized.
Ariel Sharon has never given up hope, however, that another such opening would come along, and this time, he will be ready. In fact, Sharon probably hopes such an opportunity may arise right now, should volunteers from the East Bank begin offering their help to the Palestinians. The moment such circumstances recur, Sharon will transfer the Palestinians once and for all out of Israeli territory.
That is Sharon’s ultimate dream, and he will not rest until he attains it. This is yet another reason why George W. Bush must be particularly careful. It is an extraordinarily dangerous scenario which Bush should take every measure to promptly contain.
It is crucial that Bush make the right choices. The world’s future depends on it.
(Richard H. Curtiss is the executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs magazine)
