This is a story about oil and the Israel lobby. At present, the amount of oil in the Middle East seems virtually unlimited. Only one country, Bahrain, has for all practical purposes used up its oil. Fortunately, Bahrain realized well in advance that it would run out of petroleum resources, so that small country began making allowances years ago. Today Bahrain is a major service center specializing in banking, and just about everything else except petroleum.
There may be other Middle Eastern countries that eventually will run out of oil. So far only Bahrain has had to make the jump from oil to other services. All the other major petroleum producers have oil coming out of their ears.
This includes, in addition to the large oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, medium-sized producers like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. Even marginal oil producers like Oman, Syria and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula are at least self-sufficient in petroleum.
There is one major exception in the Middle East, however and that is Israel. Whatever else it may have, the Jewish state has not yet been able to discover oil. Once Israel hoped to seize, by conquest, the Sinai Peninsula. However, Egypt soon set out to reconquer Sinai, and for a time Israel itself was endangered.
US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger intervened in the 1973 war, furnishing Israel an almost unlimited supply of US tanks and aircraft. This war showed Israel that it could not overextend its limited resources.
Nevertheless, the Israelis still have big ambitions. They want to keep parts of Lebanon and Syria and push the non-Jewish occupants of the West Bank into Jordan. Sooner or later, the United States will realize that Israel’s interests are not America’s interests.
This is a major reason why Israel is hoping to break Iraq into three separate political entities. Not only can these small geographical areas then be used to create dissension that will serve Israel’s purposes, but they can produce the petroleum that Israel so desperately needs. Opportunities for mischief are endless. Israel would be able to divide and conquer as needed. For example, there are petroleum reserves right where the Kurds and the Sunni Arab lands meet.
Half a world away, in Washington, DC, there are similar dangers. Deep rivalries, for example, are present within the George W. Bush administration. The “Arabists” who are regional experts, want to keep Iraq undivided. They believe that the last thing the United States needs is three more quarreling political entities.
The Arabists have sought to forge an alliance of Kurds in the north, the Sunni Arabs in the middle, the Shiite Arabs in the south. They want to find a leader who can work cooperatively with others and hold Iraq together.
The Israel lobby, however, wants something entirely different. Looking after the interests of its patron state, it wants to divide Iraq into three separate entities, the first in Kurdistan, another in the central Sunni areas and the third in the Shiite south.
Secretary of State Colin Powell and the Arabists want a strong central government in Baghdad. Powell has been looking for someone to hold Iraq together just as desperately as Kurdish and Shiite elements are trying to produce separatist sentiments. Those allied with the separatists include Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, a long-time powerhouse in the Israel lobby, and Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith.
In late spring Colin Powell and the State Department Arabists planned to hold a conference on Iraq. It was organized by Edward Walker, director of the Middle East Institute and a former assistant secretary of state, and his deputy at MEI, former Ambassador David Mack. It quickly became clear that the point of the discussion was to keep at bay Perle and his fellow Israel-first cabalists.
Perceiving Powell’s intention, Perle, Wolfowitz and Feith began raising all sorts of objections. Where there was supposed to be one person from each group of Iraqi dissidents, Perle and his supporters insisted on introducing more people into the group. After acrimonious discussions, Mack eventually cancelled the meeting.
President Bush, meanwhile, has continued to pursue his “war on terrorism.” Unfortunately for Wolfowitz, Feith and Perle, however, the “war party” is falling apart.
First, Saudi Arabia has said there would be no war on Iraq until the Arab-Israeli conflict is settled. To make that perfectly clear, Saudi Arabia has vetoed any use of American bases in the Middle East (or the Kingdom) for any such war. Strangely, the “war party” seemed to believe that if Saudi Arabia were not available other nearby allies like Qatar or the UAE would step in. It is unlikely, however, that one Arab League state would go against the will of all the others and permit the use of a military base on their soil to fight a war against Iraq. Although there will be all sorts of attempts to find a weakness in the Arab League, that clearly is not going to happen.
Nor will Iran declare war on Iraq. Despite their history of deadly hostilities, Iran and Iraq will stand together in this instance at least until the Arab-Israeli problem is settled.
Turkey, meanwhile despite tempting promises of help from Israel and Washington’s war party does not want to create a separatist Kurdish state on its borders. That would be the ultimate Turkish nightmare.
So the war party would have to arrange to send US aircraft carriers without any land-bases anywhere nearby. Such a scenario is beyond the capability even of the Israel lobby.
Israel, therefore, has a problem that cannot be solved without first dealing with the Arab Israeli dispute. Even more important than oil to the chosen state, however, is its desperate need to find another excuse to continue its war against the Palestinians. This at the same time the Arab League, led by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, has made an offer that no sensible American could refuse. He has agreed that if Israel returns to its 1967 borders, the Arab League states will recognize Israel and guarantee its security.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, however, has entirely different plans. For that matter, other Israeli governments whether Likud or Labor have always had the same secret plans. That is why Saudi Arabia and its allies have made it impossible to further delay a Middle East settlement.
All that is necessary now is to explain not only to the US government but also to the American people why we should quit while we’re ahead. This is the best opportunity for Middle East peace in history. Or, as a salesman would say, “Act now before it’s too late.”
— Richard Curtiss is executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs magazine (www.wrmea.com)
