French verdict

Author: 
Arab News Editorial 18 June 2002
Publication Date: 
Tue, 2002-06-18 03:00

There was never any doubt that when the French electorate went to the ballot boxes on Sunday, they would complete a right-wing triumph. From the moment that the Socialists were trounced in the first round of the presidential elections, it was plain that President Chirac and his supporters were the choice of the majority of French. The scale of the victory is nonetheless amazing. What the contest shows most firmly is that France has, for the moment, turned it back on socialism.

This has potentially enormous ramifications. With two-thirds of the National Assembly at his disposal, Chirac is in a position of greater power than any previous president of France’s Fifth Republic, including both Charles de Gaulle and Francois Mitterrand. He has five years of full control: enough time to make major changes to the country. The question is whether he will make those changes. Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin says there will be reform. But will it be deep reform? His list includes rising crime, the justice system and taxes. France is going to be tougher on crime, tougher on immigrants, tougher on those who buck the system, and it is going to cut taxes in what is one of the most highest-taxed nations in the world. But taxes cannot be reduced without cutting services. France operates one of the most interventionist economies in the world. Social welfare, a world-class military, arts and culture programs that are the envy of its neighbors: the state pays handsomely for it all. A reduction in taxes is bound to result in cuts in every sector of France’s society. Chirac wanted to strip away France’s deeply entrenched and Socialist-inspired welfare mentality long before he became prime minister in the last great tidal shift to the right, the 1993 parliamentary elections, when it ended up controlling more than four-fifths of the National Assembly and the Socialists seemed in danger of extinction. But his plans were blocked by the Socialist President Mitterrand. Only now does he have the chance. This time, though, he has something else going against him, and it may cause him to do less than embrace the most profound reform that will be needed if France is to truly change.

The problem is that the international economy, and with it France’s, is far from healthy and appears set to get worse. It may be decided that this is not the time to administer a very bitter pill for France to swallow. Privatizations and cuts in subsidies would inevitably result in jobs lost. Cuts in taxes would mean social welfare cuts. There would be political consequences: protests and probably street riots. That could be risked if the benefits could be assured and the economic forecasts were good — if it could be guaranteed that France would emerge from reform a leaner, tougher and healthier economy, in which new businesses would create new jobs. But there is no guarantee. The US is having a tough enough time of it, and last week’s crash on the international stock markets will have provided a timely warning of stormy seas ahead.

On the other hand, Chirac and Raffarin may decide that France has no alternative to major reform, hoping that by the time it has taken effect, the world economy will be in better form. They have difficult decisions to make — and have to make them now.

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