It is difficult to make out what is going on in Malaysia. On Saturday, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad stunned the country with a shock announcement at the end of the annual congress of the ruling United Malays National Organization that he was resigning. But within an hour, the resignation was withdrawn, much to the relief of both Malaysians and foreign investors. Apparently, leading party officials had persuaded him to stay on.
It is impossible to know whether this was a political tactic to bring order to a party showing increased signs of fractiousness, a stage-managed event to capitalize on his own and the party’s revived popularity or a genuine decision to quit while on the crest of a political wave. But none of these explanations quite ring true. With any one of them, he would have discussed his departure with party colleagues beforehand, not drop a bombshell in their laps. Alternatively, it could have been an on-the-spot decision sparked by exasperation at the squabbling within UMNO. Political party conferences are trying events at the best of times for politicians, and that must be doubly so for one, who, at 76, does not have the energy reserves he once did. In any event, he had already put it on record that he would bow out as prime minister before the next election — in 2004.
The Malaysian press may be on to something in saying that this was the first step in a hand over to his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. They may equally be right in their prediction that the transfer will be done before the end of the year and that elections will brought forward to that date to take advantage of UMNO’s revived popularity and the decline in that of the opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS). But again, there is something not quite right here. A shock resignation and then its withdrawal is not the normal way to go about handing over power. Moreover, it is unlikely that Mahathir would have deliberately engineered a crisis, particularly the one that took place on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange yesterday as a result of the uncertainty that he had created. As Asia’s longest-serving leader, with 21 years at Malaysia’s helm, he knows full well the interplay between politics and economics and the dramatic impact that a shock resignation would have on the country. One thing he cannot be accused of is irresponsibility when it comes to Malaysia’s well-being. That is all the more reason to conclude that this was an impulse decision, taken almost on the spur of the moment, and then rapidly repented.
The attraction of retirement has grown for him in recent years. Even before he announced in January last year that he would stand down before the next election, he had hinted on many occasions that he was thinking of going. But so far, he had never quite made it. He seems torn between a desire to retire and a belief, shared by many others as well (and not only senior UMNO party officials), that Malaysia still needs him.
Whether his evident desire to go finally gets the better of him this time, we can only wait and see. But with the opposition in trouble, this is the best opportunity he has had to step down without worries, knowing that his chosen successor can win comfortably and then have time to establish himself in office.
