Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says

Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
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The Lebanese pound has lost approximately 90 percent of its value during the economic crisis in the country. (AFP)
Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
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Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
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Updated 01 February 2023

Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says

Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
  • In an exclusive interview with Arab News, George Kanaan, CEO of the Arab Bankers Association, said the main cause of the economic collapse was the incompetence of top bankers
  • The Lebanese pound has lost approximately 90 percent of its value during the economic crisis in the country and continues to tumble to record lows

LONDON: The financial crisis in Lebanon could be resolved within five to 10 years if a “well thought out program” is implemented that takes care of small depositors, addresses the needs of medium-sized ones and brings big depositors on board as partners in new banks, according to a finance industry expert in London.

The Lebanese economy has “continued to deteriorate to untenable levels,” according to the International Monetary Fund. Per capita gross domestic product fell by 36.5 percent between 2019 and 2021, and is expected to contract even further this year.

“They could have had a quicker recovery had they started earlier,” said George Kanaan, CEO of the Arab Bankers Association, a nonprofit professional organization in London whose members work in banking and related industries in the Arab world and the UK. “But three years have passed and nothing has happened.”

Kanaan, head of the ABA since 2009, has worked for prominent banks in New York, London and Saudi Arabia since 1975. He said it is not unusual that one or two banks might fail in a country, or perhaps a segment of the industry or a specialty sector, “but for a system to fail entirely is almost unique in history.”

The Lebanese pound has lost approximately 90 percent of its value during the economic crisis in the country and continues to tumble to record lows, reaching above 60,000 pounds to the dollar on Friday.




Lebanese protesters demonstrate against the monetary policies of Lebanon’s Central Bank governor in the capital Beirut on Jan. 25, 2023. (AFP)

“We would like to see joint action by the (big) depositors to work with the banks, the government and the IMF, if they can be brought in, to restructure a system that has failed — and the failure of the system was comprehensive,” Kanaan told Arab News during an exclusive interview.

He said that corruption and a waste of revenues and resources actually played only a small part in the failure, and that the financial system collapsed mainly as a result of the incompetence of its management, particularly at the nation’s central bank, Banque du Liban.

European investigators are investigating alleged state fraud and the actions of Riad Salameh, who has been central bank governor for three decades. He and his brother Raja have been accused of illegally taking more than $300 million from the bank between 2002 and 2015.

“The central bank governor was brought in a long, long time ago and he obviously overstayed any reasonable period of governance (and) mismanaged events, possibly because of ignorance, possibly because it seemed to work so let it happen, or pressures from the political establishment,” Kanaan said.

The “black hole in the Lebanese banking system is about $100 billion,” he added. “About a third of it is loans made to a very bad client called the Lebanese state … and about two-thirds of it went to supporting the pound and a fixed exchange rate of 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar.”

This strategy, implemented after the 15-year civil war in the country ended in 1990, initially worked because it helped “stabilize the economy and put it on a sound footing,” Kanaan said. 

You are going to have to address the top tier of depositors with a bail-in, similar to (what happened in) Cyprus, when all big depositors become shareholders in new banks.

George Kanaan, Arab Bankers Association CEO

But it should have ended after about three to five years, with the exchange rate subsequently left to the market to decide, he added. This did not happen, however.

Fast forward to the global financial crisis in 2008 and money was “pouring” into the country, Kanaan said. Lebanese banks were seen as safe havens because had not suffered the way banks in other countries had, and they were not involved in the “risky” and “sophisticated instruments” used by Western banks. Therefore it was considered “counterintuitive” at that point to abandon the fixed rate against the dollar.

“Once that honeymoon period had passed, the country started going through vacant periods, meaning with no council of ministers (and) no president, the state was suspended from doing anything and the economy began to retreat,” he said.

“Had you allowed the pound to move the market, it would have dropped (in value). And by dropping, it would have sent a signal to the market, to politicians, everybody: Guys things aren’t good, fix them. They didn’t. They kept on blindly supporting the pound and the effect of that was to give the Lebanese an exceptionally false sense of security and wealth.”

Small depositors were not greatly affected at first and got some of their money back. Very big depositors “also had to stay silent,” Kanaan said, as most of them were banking in Lebanon because they were not able to take their business elsewhere. Either they had been sanctioned directly, feared being sanctioned, came from dubious jurisdictions, were involved in disreputable dealings or tax evasion, or had plenty of other investments to tide them over, he explained. But eventually the entire system collapsed.

“It’s very sad,” said Kanaan. “You find people now, at the age of 70, going back to work because they need to live; they can’t retire anymore. This, in a way, brings home the horror of the crime.”

He places the blame first and foremost with the bankers, as it was their job to make sure depositors would get their money back. They should have defied Banque du Liban’s order to lock depositors out of their dollar accounts and block transfers to other countries, he added.




People gather outside the Blom Bank branch in the capital Beirut’s Tariq Al-Jdideh neighborhood on Sept. 16, 2022, to express their support to a depositor, who stormed the bank demanding to withdraw his frozen savings. (AFP)

“That’s where the fault lies,” Kanaan said. “The central bank literally forced people to do what it wanted and the people acquiesced and, in a way, created an unusual system.

“It wasn’t really a system; we had a bank called the Central Bank of Lebanon, and branches. Every single branch was an exact replica of the one next to it; you cannot distinguish between them because they were all forced to take the same risk assets.”

According to the IMF, food prices in Lebanon have increased almost tenfold since the crisis began in May 2019, unemployment is exceptionally high, and three quarters of the population have been plunged into poverty.

Such a brutal contraction is usually associated with conflict or war, the World Bank noted. The situation has been exacerbated by an influx of refugees, the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastating explosion at Beirut’s port in August 2020.

Denied access to their savings, a growing number of people, in addition to taking part in mass protests, are taking the law into their own hands and resorting to extreme measures to get their money, such as bank sieges and sit-ins, some of them involving weapons and hostages.

“In between five and 10 years, you could have a new system, fully recovered, and people, for the most part, with their money back,” Kanaan said, adding that any system could be reformed every five years.

“(But) you are going to have to address the top tier of the depositors with a bail-in, similar to (what happened in) Cyprus, when all the big depositors become shareholders in new banks, and the middle depositors will have to be addressed through some sort of securitization or bonds program.”

A bail-in provides relief to a failing financial institution by requiring the cancellation of debts owed to creditors and depositors. In effect, it is the opposite of a bailout, which involves a rescue by external parties, typically governments, using an influx of cash.

The recovery will happen more quickly if significant revenues, or “unforeseen revenues” flow in, Kanaan said.

To this end, “the interesting thing on the horizon are the gas and oil discoveries offshore,” which Lebanon is due to begin exploiting, he added.


Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer

Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer
Updated 24 March 2023

Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer

Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer
  • Toshiba's deep troubles began with a sprawling accounting scandal in 2015, involving books being doctored for years
  • Its US nuclear arm Westinghouse filed for bankruptcy in 2017, after years of deep losses as safety costs soared

TOKYO: Scandal-embattled Japanese electronics and technology manufacturer Toshiba has accepted a 2 trillion yen ($15 billion) tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners, a buyout fund made up of the nation’s major banks and companies.
If the proposal succeeds, it will be a major step in Toshiba’s yearslong turnaround effort, allowing it to go private and delist from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. But overseas activist investors own a significant part of Toshiba’s shares, and it’s unclear if they will be happy with the latest bid.
Tokyo-based Toshiba Corp. announced its board accepted the bid at 4,620 yen ($36) a share late Thursday. Toshiba closed at 4,213 yen ($32) a share Thursday, and is trading at 4,474 yen ($34) early Friday. The offer was announced after trading closed in Tokyo.
The move comes while the world’s financial sector is in turmoil over the ripple effects from the recent collapse of banks in the US
The critical point is that the latest offer, if successful, will keep Toshiba’s business Japanese in an alliance with Japanese partners.
Japan Industrial Partners, set up in 2002 to restructure Japanese companies, lists big names among where it has invested, such as Sony, Hitachi, Olympus and NEC.
The consortium includes about 20 Japanese companies, such as Orix Corp., a financial services company, electronics manufacturer Rohm Co. and the megabanks such as Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., according to Japanese media reports.
The deep troubles at Toshiba began with a sprawling accounting scandal in 2015, involving books being doctored for years. That added to its woes related to its nuclear energy business.
Its US nuclear arm Westinghouse filed for bankruptcy in 2017, after years of deep losses as safety costs soared. Toshiba is also involved in the decommissioning effort at the Fukushima nuclear plant heavily damaged by an earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.
Toshiba has gone through several presidents over the years, as the brand once prized for making household appliances, laptops, batteries and computer chips, became the target of overseas activist shareholders.
The latest proposal still needs to go through regulatory reviews in several countries, including the US, Vietnam, Germany and Morocco. The process is expected to take several months.
Toshiba has been trying to go private in recent years. Proposals to split Toshiba into three, and then two, companies were rejected by shareholders. Delisting will allow Toshiba to leave behind the activist investors.
Toshiba had its humble beginnings in a telegraph equipment factory in 1875. The brand had been synonymous with the power of modern Japan’s manufacturing sector. It has sold parts of its operations, including its flash-memory business, now known as Kioxia, although Toshiba remains a stakeholder in Kioxia.
Whether Toshiba can get back on a solid growth track remains uncertain. Last month, Toshiba lowered its profit forecast for the fiscal year through March to 130 billion yen ($1 billion), down from an earlier projection for a 190 billion yen ($1.5 billion) profit.
 


US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list

US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list
Updated 24 March 2023

US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list

US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list
  • Chinese Embassy accuses US of abusing export control measures and using state power to suppress and contain foreign companies

WASHINGTON: The Biden administration on Thursday added 14 Chinese companies to a red flag list, forcing US exporters to conduct greater due diligence before shipping goods to them because US officials have been unable to inspect the listed entities.
Being added to the list can potentially start a 60-day clock that could trigger much tougher penalties.
“Enforcing our export controls is a crucial part of protecting American national security,” US Deputy Secretary of Commerce Don Graves said in a statement following the announcement. “We are committed to using all of the tools at our disposal to establish how advanced US technology is being used around the globe.”
ECOM International and HK P&W Industry Co. Ltd. were among those added to the list and did not respond to requests for comment.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said “China strongly deplores and firmly opposes” moves by the United States to “abuse export control measures” and use “state power to suppress and contain foreign companies.”
“The US side should immediately stop its wrong practices. China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies,” the spokesperson added.
The United States has used restrictions on exports of US goods as a key tool to thwart Beijing’s technological advances, ratcheting up tensions between the two countries.

 


Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market

Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market
Updated 23 March 2023

Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market

Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market

LONDON: Oil prices dipped on Thursday, having hit their lowest since late 2021 earlier this week, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted banking sector credit risks for the world’s largest economy, while US crude stockpiles swelled.

Brent crude futures were down 54 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $76.15 a barrel at 0929 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 62 cents, or 0.9%, to $70.28.

Powell said on Wednesday that banking industry stress could trigger a credit crunch, with “significant” implications for an economy that US central bank officials projected would slow even more this year than previously thought.

HIGHLIGHTS

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that demand from China continued to surge across the commodity complex, with oil demand topping 16 million barrels per day.

The bank forecast Brent to reach $97 a barrel in the second quarter of 2024.

US crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week to their highest in nearly two years, latest data from the Energy Information Administration showed.

Crude inventories rose in the week to March 17 by 1.1 million barrels to 481.2 million barrels, the highest since May 2021. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 1.6-million-barrel drop.

The dollar slid to a seven-week low against a basket of other currencies, providing a price floor for oil as a weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Also supportive, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that demand from China, the world’s biggest oil importer, continued to surge across the commodity complex, with oil demand topping 16 million barrels per day.

The bank forecast Brent to reach $97 a barrel in the second quarter of 2024.


Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 

Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 
Updated 23 March 2023

Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 

Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose by 95.88 points, or 0.93 percent, on Thursday to close at 10,446.39, driven by a rise in investor confidence, on the first session of Ramadan. 

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index went up by 1.01 percent to 1,423.28, while the parallel market Nomu lost 37.60 points, or 0.20 percent, to close at 19,056.84. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index on Thursday was SR4.4 billion ($1.17 billion).

The top performer on Thursday was Al Kathiri Holding Co. as its share prices increased by 10 percent to SR50.60. 

Some of the other major gainers on Thursday were National Medical Care Co. and Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Co., whose shares went up by 9.95 percent and 6.45 percent respectively. 

Thimar Development Holding Co. was the worst performer on Thursday as its share prices went down by 9.98 percent to SR48.25 at the closing bell. 

Another worst performer on Thursday was Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Co. whose share prices went down by 9.41 percent to SR13.58. 

On the announcements front, Amana Cooperative Insurance Co. reported that it trimmed its losses to SR43.80 million in 2022, from SR121.40 million in 2021. However, that had no positive impact on its share prices which fell by 1.25 percent to SR9.46. 

Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co. also narrowed its losses in 2022. Compared to the SR62.6 million loss it incurred in 2021, the company trimmed its losses to SR37.2 million in 2022. As the company performed well in 2022 compared to 2021, its share prices rose by 1.90 percent to SR11.82. 

Another company that announced its financial report on Thursday was Sumou Real Estate Co. The firm’s net profit in 2022 rose to SR87.6 million, an 8 percent rise from SR81.2 million in the previous year. 

As the company’s profit increased, Sumou Real Estate Co.’s board of directors declared a 10 percent cash dividend for the second half of 2022, at SR1 per share, amounting to SR37.5 million, a bourse statement revealed. 

Sumou Real Estate Co.’s share prices remained unchanged at SR45 at the end of today’s trading session. 

Meanwhile, Saudi Top for Trading Co. also announced its financial results for 2022. The company reported a net profit of SR32.77 million for 2022, an increase of 92 percent from a net profit of SR17.09 million in the year-earlier period. Amid a rise in profit, the company’s share prices dipped 0.53 percent to SR93.

Saudi Airlines Catering Co. reported a net profit of SR257.10 million in 2022, from SR14.10 million in 2021. Driven by the increase in profit, the company’s board of directors recommended a 5 percent cash dividend, at SR0.5 per share, for 2022, amounting to SR41 million. 

Saudi Airlines Catering Co.’s massive rise in net profit was also reflected in its share price, as it went up by 5.06 percent to SR85.10.


Top officials review SFD-funded development projects in Senegal   

Top officials review SFD-funded development projects in Senegal   
Updated 23 March 2023

Top officials review SFD-funded development projects in Senegal   

Top officials review SFD-funded development projects in Senegal   

RIYADH: Top officials of Saudi Arabia and Senegal reviewed various development projects and programs funded by the Saudi Fund for Development as the African country aims to improve its social infrastructure.     

Senegal’s Minister of Infrastructure and Land Transport Mansour Fay called on SFD CEO Sultan bin Abdulrahman Al-Murshed at the fund’s headquarters in Riyadh to review the progress of work and the challenges associated with their implementation and the development of sustainable solutions for them, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

This comes as the Kingdom is keen on pursuing development efforts in the African country through financing projects and programs that contribute to the growth of the social and economic life of the Senegalese people to achieve sustainable development in the near future. 

In addition to this, Fay was briefed on the Fund's development efforts through an introductory photo exhibition tour inside the headquarters. The Fund highlighted the most prominent development projects it finances in developing countries, and their developmental impact on the beneficiaries.  

The majority of the development projects and programs financed by the SFD fall in the social infrastructure sector in specific.   

Last December, on behalf of SFD, a rehabilitation project of the Tambacounda-Guederi road in Senegal was inaugurated by Senegalese President Macky Sall. 

The project, financed by the SFD through a soft loan of approximately $30 million, aims to rehabilitate a critical 80 km road. It will also improve roadside services, including first aid and emergency care units for individuals who have sustained injuries from road traffic accidents as well as water wells to serve travelers and residents in and around the area.    

Besides providing people and communities with increased access to vital and basic services, the development of the Tambacounda-Guederi road will improve road safety and reduce road accident fatalities.    

Given the road’s location, it will play a significant role in transforming the national economy and strengthening the infrastructure of the country’s transport sector.  

Since 1978, the SFD has funded as many as 26 projects and development programs with a total value of an estimated $447 million in Senegal. The Saudi government also provided four huge grants through the Fund with a value exceeding $19 million to contribute to the growth and prosperity of the infrastructure sectors in Senegal.