Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says

Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
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The Lebanese pound has lost approximately 90 percent of its value during the economic crisis in the country. (AFP)
Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
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Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
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Updated 01 February 2023

Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says

Lebanese banks could recover within 5 or 10 years with astute planning, finance expert says
  • In an exclusive interview with Arab News, George Kanaan, CEO of the Arab Bankers Association, said the main cause of the economic collapse was the incompetence of top bankers
  • The Lebanese pound has lost approximately 90 percent of its value during the economic crisis in the country and continues to tumble to record lows

LONDON: The financial crisis in Lebanon could be resolved within five to 10 years if a “well thought out program” is implemented that takes care of small depositors, addresses the needs of medium-sized ones and brings big depositors on board as partners in new banks, according to a finance industry expert in London.

The Lebanese economy has “continued to deteriorate to untenable levels,” according to the International Monetary Fund. Per capita gross domestic product fell by 36.5 percent between 2019 and 2021, and is expected to contract even further this year.

“They could have had a quicker recovery had they started earlier,” said George Kanaan, CEO of the Arab Bankers Association, a nonprofit professional organization in London whose members work in banking and related industries in the Arab world and the UK. “But three years have passed and nothing has happened.”

Kanaan, head of the ABA since 2009, has worked for prominent banks in New York, London and Saudi Arabia since 1975. He said it is not unusual that one or two banks might fail in a country, or perhaps a segment of the industry or a specialty sector, “but for a system to fail entirely is almost unique in history.”

The Lebanese pound has lost approximately 90 percent of its value during the economic crisis in the country and continues to tumble to record lows, reaching above 60,000 pounds to the dollar on Friday.




Lebanese protesters demonstrate against the monetary policies of Lebanon’s Central Bank governor in the capital Beirut on Jan. 25, 2023. (AFP)

“We would like to see joint action by the (big) depositors to work with the banks, the government and the IMF, if they can be brought in, to restructure a system that has failed — and the failure of the system was comprehensive,” Kanaan told Arab News during an exclusive interview.

He said that corruption and a waste of revenues and resources actually played only a small part in the failure, and that the financial system collapsed mainly as a result of the incompetence of its management, particularly at the nation’s central bank, Banque du Liban.

European investigators are investigating alleged state fraud and the actions of Riad Salameh, who has been central bank governor for three decades. He and his brother Raja have been accused of illegally taking more than $300 million from the bank between 2002 and 2015.

“The central bank governor was brought in a long, long time ago and he obviously overstayed any reasonable period of governance (and) mismanaged events, possibly because of ignorance, possibly because it seemed to work so let it happen, or pressures from the political establishment,” Kanaan said.

The “black hole in the Lebanese banking system is about $100 billion,” he added. “About a third of it is loans made to a very bad client called the Lebanese state … and about two-thirds of it went to supporting the pound and a fixed exchange rate of 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar.”

This strategy, implemented after the 15-year civil war in the country ended in 1990, initially worked because it helped “stabilize the economy and put it on a sound footing,” Kanaan said. 

You are going to have to address the top tier of depositors with a bail-in, similar to (what happened in) Cyprus, when all big depositors become shareholders in new banks.

George Kanaan, Arab Bankers Association CEO

But it should have ended after about three to five years, with the exchange rate subsequently left to the market to decide, he added. This did not happen, however.

Fast forward to the global financial crisis in 2008 and money was “pouring” into the country, Kanaan said. Lebanese banks were seen as safe havens because had not suffered the way banks in other countries had, and they were not involved in the “risky” and “sophisticated instruments” used by Western banks. Therefore it was considered “counterintuitive” at that point to abandon the fixed rate against the dollar.

“Once that honeymoon period had passed, the country started going through vacant periods, meaning with no council of ministers (and) no president, the state was suspended from doing anything and the economy began to retreat,” he said.

“Had you allowed the pound to move the market, it would have dropped (in value). And by dropping, it would have sent a signal to the market, to politicians, everybody: Guys things aren’t good, fix them. They didn’t. They kept on blindly supporting the pound and the effect of that was to give the Lebanese an exceptionally false sense of security and wealth.”

Small depositors were not greatly affected at first and got some of their money back. Very big depositors “also had to stay silent,” Kanaan said, as most of them were banking in Lebanon because they were not able to take their business elsewhere. Either they had been sanctioned directly, feared being sanctioned, came from dubious jurisdictions, were involved in disreputable dealings or tax evasion, or had plenty of other investments to tide them over, he explained. But eventually the entire system collapsed.

“It’s very sad,” said Kanaan. “You find people now, at the age of 70, going back to work because they need to live; they can’t retire anymore. This, in a way, brings home the horror of the crime.”

He places the blame first and foremost with the bankers, as it was their job to make sure depositors would get their money back. They should have defied Banque du Liban’s order to lock depositors out of their dollar accounts and block transfers to other countries, he added.




People gather outside the Blom Bank branch in the capital Beirut’s Tariq Al-Jdideh neighborhood on Sept. 16, 2022, to express their support to a depositor, who stormed the bank demanding to withdraw his frozen savings. (AFP)

“That’s where the fault lies,” Kanaan said. “The central bank literally forced people to do what it wanted and the people acquiesced and, in a way, created an unusual system.

“It wasn’t really a system; we had a bank called the Central Bank of Lebanon, and branches. Every single branch was an exact replica of the one next to it; you cannot distinguish between them because they were all forced to take the same risk assets.”

According to the IMF, food prices in Lebanon have increased almost tenfold since the crisis began in May 2019, unemployment is exceptionally high, and three quarters of the population have been plunged into poverty.

Such a brutal contraction is usually associated with conflict or war, the World Bank noted. The situation has been exacerbated by an influx of refugees, the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastating explosion at Beirut’s port in August 2020.

Denied access to their savings, a growing number of people, in addition to taking part in mass protests, are taking the law into their own hands and resorting to extreme measures to get their money, such as bank sieges and sit-ins, some of them involving weapons and hostages.

“In between five and 10 years, you could have a new system, fully recovered, and people, for the most part, with their money back,” Kanaan said, adding that any system could be reformed every five years.

“(But) you are going to have to address the top tier of the depositors with a bail-in, similar to (what happened in) Cyprus, when all the big depositors become shareholders in new banks, and the middle depositors will have to be addressed through some sort of securitization or bonds program.”

A bail-in provides relief to a failing financial institution by requiring the cancellation of debts owed to creditors and depositors. In effect, it is the opposite of a bailout, which involves a rescue by external parties, typically governments, using an influx of cash.

The recovery will happen more quickly if significant revenues, or “unforeseen revenues” flow in, Kanaan said.

To this end, “the interesting thing on the horizon are the gas and oil discoveries offshore,” which Lebanon is due to begin exploiting, he added.


DP World in top 5 overseas investors since 2012

DP World in top 5 overseas investors since 2012
Updated 26 March 2023

DP World in top 5 overseas investors since 2012

DP World in top 5 overseas investors since 2012
  • Logistics company invested $320m in the last year

DUBAI: DP World has invested more than $10 billion in the global logistics sector since 2012, Emirates News Agency has reported. 

The figures make the UAE-based company one of the top five overseas investors during the time period, according to the most recent foreign direct investment data.

Despite the demand for logistics services slowing, along with the global economy, DP World invested $320 million in the last year. 

Other companies in the top five include Amazon, and Denmark’s AP Moller Maersk, making DP World the only company in the group not based in the US or Europe.

DP World CEO Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said: “The data shared by ‘FDI Intelligence’ demonstrates where we stand globally within the logistics sector, not only in the last year but consistently over the last 10 years.

“DP World’s companies touch people’s lives around the world every day. Sometimes it is tangible, and sometimes we are in the background, making sure people and businesses get the goods they require.

“Our infrastructure opens untapped trade opportunities, grows economies and makes goods more affordable.

“Investing in developing economies helps trade go further, facilitates economic growth, attracts foreign investment and generates thousands of jobs — raising the quality of life for everyone.”

According to a study in January commissioned by DP World and led by Economist Impact, 96 percent of companies are changing their supply chains as a result of geopolitical events.

One of DP World’s priorities in 2022 was to expand its partnerships in order to realize this trade potential.

It strengthened its partnership with India’s National Investment and Infrastructure Fund to raise about $300 million, and it established a new platform with British International Investment to accelerate work in Africa.

The African continent has been a key focus area, with the construction of the Port of Ndayane in Senegal marking the start of a $1 billion investment.

Plans are also in the works to expand the capabilities of operations at Caucedo in the Dominican Republic, while the Callao Port expansion in Peru, when completed later this year, will reportedly create one of the single largest terminals in South America.

Another popular investment destination has been the UK. DP World has invested £2 billion ($2.44 billion) in the UK over the last decade, supporting thousands of jobs, WAM reported.


Standard Chartered agrees to sell business in Jordan

Standard Chartered agrees to sell business in Jordan
Updated 26 March 2023

Standard Chartered agrees to sell business in Jordan

Standard Chartered agrees to sell business in Jordan
  • Bank said in April that it was seeking to narrow its focus to faster-growing markets in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

DUBAI: Standard Chartered plans to sell its Jordanian business to Arab Jordan Investment Bank (AJIB), the two parties said on Sunday, as the emerging markets-focused lender presses ahead with plans to exit seven markets in Africa and the Middle East.
The bank entered into an agreement with AJIB, subject to central bank approval, which will see Standard Chartered’s corporate, commercial and institutional banking, consumer lending and private banking businesses migrated to AJIB.
All Standard Chartered Bank employees in Jordan will be transferred to AJIB, it said an emailed statement.
Standard Chartered’s Africa and Middle East CEO Sunil Kaushal said the agreement is aligned with the banks global strategy “to deliver efficiencies, reduce complexity, as well as redirect resources within the Africa Middle East region to areas with the greatest potential to drive scale, grow and better support clients.”
AJIB said the purchase falls within the Jordanian lender’s strategy to grow its market share in the country, which continues to grow after it acquired HSBC’s banking business in Jordan in 2014 and National Bank of Kuwait’s banking business in Jordan in 2022.
Standard Chartered in April 2022 said it plans to leave seven markets, consisting of Angola, Cameroon, Gambia, Jordan, Lebanon, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe.
The bank said at the time it was seeking to exit markets where it is sub-scale and narrow its focus to faster-growing markets in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt.


Closing bell: Saudi benchmark index continues upward movement on promising market conditions

Closing bell: Saudi benchmark index continues upward movement on promising market conditions
Updated 26 March 2023

Closing bell: Saudi benchmark index continues upward movement on promising market conditions

Closing bell: Saudi benchmark index continues upward movement on promising market conditions

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index continued its upward trajectory on Sunday as it went up by 12.97 points or 0.93 percent to close at 10,459.36. The promising market conditions resulted in a rise in investor confidence, pushing the market up.

The parallel market, Nomu, also rose by 174.79 points or 0.92 percent to close at 19,231.63, while the MSCI Tadawul 30 Index gained 0.02 percent to reach 1,423.63 on Sunday. Total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.05 billion ($1.08 billion).

On Thursday, during the first session of Ramadan month, the main index gained 95.88 points and closed at 10,446.39.

Arab Sea Information System Co. emerged as the top gainer, as its share prices went up by 9.96 percent to SR78.40 followed by Al Kathiri Holding Co. whose share prices surged by 9.88 percent to SR55.60.

Zain KSA which reported a net profit of SR550 million in 2022, saw its shares surge 9.83 percent to SR11.84.

Thimar Development Holding Co. was the worst performer, dropping 9.95 percent to SR43.45, followed by Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Co. whose share prices went down by 6.08 percent to SR12.66.

Meanwhile, Horizon Food Co., affiliated with Tabuk Agriculture Development Co. began trading on Nomu on Sunday with an opening price of SR37 per share and closed the session at SR44.95, up 21.49 percent.

On Sunday, Amwaj International Co. announced its financial results for 2022. In a statement issued to Tadawul, the company revealed that it recorded a 2.7 percent rise in net profit to SR29.02 million in 2022, compared to SR28.26 million in the year-ago period.

Sure Global Tech Co. reported a net profit of SR24.07 million in 2022, up 33 percent from SR18.12 million in 2021. In a bourse statement, the company attributed the rise in profit to a 12 percent increase in revenues driven by the product segment, adequately supported by the expansion of the customer base.

Sure Global Tech Co. also added that net profit increased in 2022 due to the revenue growth in infrastructure, professional and digital services segments. Despite the rise in net profit, the company’s share prices fell by 1.67 percent to close at SR53.10.

Arabian Pipes Co., also known as APC turned profitable in 2022, as the company reported a net profit of SR8.9 million, versus a net loss of SR60.1 million in 2021. According to a bourse statement, the net profit of the company rose in 2022 due to an increase in sales which went up by 37 percent.

Driven by the rise in profits, the share prices of Arabian Pipes Co. went up by 9.52 percent to SR42.

Another company that reported its financial results on Sunday was Saudi Ground Services Co. In 2022, the company trimmed its net losses to SR244.48 million, compared to SR254.41 million in 2021. Even though the company performed well in 2022 compared to 2021, its share prices dropped by 4.76 percent to SR22.


Saudi REDF deposits over $246m in Sakani accounts for housing projects  

Saudi REDF deposits over $246m in Sakani accounts for housing projects  
Updated 26 March 2023

Saudi REDF deposits over $246m in Sakani accounts for housing projects  

Saudi REDF deposits over $246m in Sakani accounts for housing projects  

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate Development Fund deposited more than SR925 million ($246.2 million) in the accounts of Sakani beneficiaries in March 2023.  

The Sakani program was launched in 2017 by the REDF to facilitate homeownership in the Kingdom, by developing new housing stock, allocating plots and homes to nationals and financing their purchase. 

The deposit, which also comes from the Ministry of Municipal, Rural Affairs and Housing and the REDF, is in line with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 which aims to increase the proportion of citizens who own a home to 70 percent.  

Mansour bin Madi, CEO of REDF, stated that the total amount deposited in the accounts of Sakani beneficiaries since the announcement of the transformation program in June 2017 until March 2023, exceeded SR46.2 billion.  

He also said that the total fund for the current month of March was allocated to support the profits of various housing contracts.  

Bin Madi explained that the fund launched the second phase of product governance and provided an electronic service that allows the beneficiaries with self-construction projects to update the stages of building their homes.  

This is to emphasize the importance of the beneficiaries' commitment to direct the stages of building their housing and follow up on the stages.  

He added this is to ensure that the fund supports and facilitates are provided to the beneficiaries during the time period specified in the financing contracts and housing support regulations. 


IMF says risks to financial stability have increased, calls for vigilance

IMF says risks to financial stability have increased, calls for vigilance
Updated 26 March 2023

IMF says risks to financial stability have increased, calls for vigilance

IMF says risks to financial stability have increased, calls for vigilance

RIYADH: International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday that risks to financial stability have increased and called for continued vigilance although actions by advanced economies have calmed market stress.

Speaking during the first day of the China Development Forum, Georgieva noted that 2023 poses yet another challenging and thought-provoking year with an expected global growth rate slowing to below 3 percent.  

This is mainly attributed to the repercussion of the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as monetary tightening, the IMF chief explained.  

Even though progressive economies have attempted to compose market stress, the overall outlook for 2024 remains weak with the growth rate estimated to stand below the historic average of 3.8 percent, she pointed out.

"So, we continue to monitor developments closely and are assessing potential implications for the global economic outlook and global financial stability," Georgieva reassured. 

Moreover, when it comes to vulnerable and low-income countries with high levels of debt, she emphasized that the IMF is paying close attention to those in order to further support them.  

In addition to this, there is a risk of the world splitting into rival economic blocs, resulting in "a dangerous division that would leave everyone poorer and less secure," as a consequence of geo-economic fragmentation, Georgieva warned. 

That said, China has a significant role to play with regard to minimizing the risks of financial instability. It has been forecasted that every one percentage point boost in China’s gross domestic product results in a 0.3 percentage point rise in growth in other Asian economies, she said. 

Consequently, policymakers in China are urged to focus on further raising productivity while rebalancing the economy and shifting away from investment while moving towards more sturdy consumption-driven growth.

According to conjectures, such reforms are capable of lifting real GDP by as much as 2.5 percent by 2027, and by around 18 percent by 2037, explained. 

The China Development Forum is an annual high-level global conference held in China right after the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference each year. 

This year, the forum is taking place from March 25 up until March 27 under the theme “Economic Recovery: Opportunities and Cooperation.” 

The conference poses an opportunity for participants to connect with political, economic, and significant decision-makers in the Asian country.