Even by the bleak standards set by previous special US Middle East envoys, the mission of US Assistant Secretary of State William Burns has been a "non-happening". Palestinians are continuing to reel from a series of military offensives and are currently feeling the brunt of a major excursion into Jenin, the biggest since the summer. This follows a bus bombing that killed 16 Israelis in northern Israel a week ago, the highest death toll from an attack inside Israel since June, and yesterday’s blast in the Jewish settlement of Ariel which killed two and injured more than 30. In the middle, Burns brought with him a road map which looks like the reprint of an old one.
Based on President Bush’s vision of a Palestinian state and with inputs from the EU, the UN and Russia, the road is mapped to reach a provisional Palestinian state in 2003 and a final status agreement by 2005. Despite some confidence-building measures, there are grounds for concern about how acceptable the plan will prove to be for the Palestinians.
For one, the proposals refer only to parliamentary, not presidential elections, a blatant attempt to interfere in internal Palestinian affairs and circumvent Yasser Arafat. As for settlements, while they must be removed before Palestinian reforms take place, Sharon is asked to take down only settlements established during his premiership; the large building program that took place during Ehud Barak’s tenure will be left untouched. According to the plan, most importantly, progress along the route proposed cannot begin until Palestinian attacks end. However, they will not end anytime soon — because Israelis are first and foremost responsible for them. The occupation of Jenin and cities like it and the civilian deaths that accompany these sieges provoke attacks like the bus and Ariel bombings. The 54-year-old Arab-Israeli conflict is a clear case of occupation, giving the Palestinians the strength to survive accusations of terrorism. Israel says the plan does not address all its security concerns. Yet, Every major West Bank and Gaza area is occupied by Israeli troops. There are no Palestinian tanks occupying any part of Israel.
As Burns departs the Mideast, little of the plan looks likely to materialize, a fate that has befallen previous initiatives, because its starting point is the very one that proved futile in past mediation endeavors: the call for an Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian areas and for an end to suicide operations. There is no mechanism for its implementation, no international observers to oversee implementation and not much in the way of a timetable.
Perhaps the greatest suspicion is that the road map is meant to make the Palestinians believe that after months of supporting Israel’s daily assaults on Palestinian society, Washington is about to do a good turn for them for a change. The plan appears designed to lull the Palestinians into a sense that something positive is being done on their behalf, this as the US desperately seeks at least a brief period of calm in the region before it can launch an attack against Iraq. If that is the case, then the road map looks less like a compass navigating the route to a future Palestinian state and more like the American way to a planned war with Baghdad.
