How long will escalating Israel-Iran hostilities remain a covert conflict?

Special How long will escalating Israel-Iran hostilities remain a covert conflict?
People inspect the damage in the aftermath of an Israeli airstrike, allegedly targeting a logistics center run by the IRGC, which killed five people and damaged several buildings in Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday, Feb. 19. (AFP)
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Updated 23 February 2023

How long will escalating Israel-Iran hostilities remain a covert conflict?

How long will escalating Israel-Iran hostilities remain a covert conflict?
  • Israel is widely thought to be behind ongoing attacks and acts of sabotage against IRGC and Tehran’s nuclear program
  • With the nuclear deal all but dead and Netanyahu back in office, the regional power calculations appear to have changed

IRBIL, IRAQI KURDISTAN: Barely two months in and 2023 has already proven an eventful year in the ongoing covert conflict between Israel and Iran.

Early on Sunday, an Israeli airstrike killed five people and damaged several buildings in Syria’s capital Damascus. Two Western intelligence agents cited by Reuters news agency said the attack’s target was a logistics center run by Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The strike in the heart of Syria’s capital followed two noteworthy incidents in January. On Jan. 28, a night-time drone strike targeted a military facility in the central Iranian city of Isfahan. This was swiftly followed by another air attack the following night against a convoy of Iranian trucks that had entered Syria from Iraq.

Experts believe that Israel was most likely behind all of these covert operations.

Over the past decade, Israel has been conducting an air campaign to prevent the IRGC from transferring advanced weaponry to its regional militia proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It has also sought to deny the IRGC a military foothold in Syria. In fact, the Al-Qaim border crossing between Iraq and Syria, the site of the Jan. 29 attack, is an area frequently targeted in such strikes.

Israel is also thought to have been behind a series of covert strikes and acts of sabotage against drone- and missile-production facilities inside Iran and the country’s nuclear program.

Furthermore, it is the prime suspect in the assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientists, most notably Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, killed in November 2020 in a road ambush near Tehran, allegedly involving an autonomous satellite-operated gun.

The flurry of strikes in 2023 may signal that Israel is accelerating and intensifying these concurrent campaigns at a time of changing geopolitical priorities.




Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during a meeting with the Iranian supreme leader (unseen) in Tehran, on January 23, 2019. (AFP)

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which sought to curb Iran’s uranium enrichment in return for sanctions relief, is all but dead, despite the best efforts of the Biden administration and its European allies.

Far from reining in its nuclear program, Tehran has stepped up uranium enrichment to the point that it can build “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses, according to Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“One thing is true: They have amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons, not one, at this point,” Grossi told European lawmakers on Jan. 24. “They have 70 kilograms (155 pounds) of uranium enriched at 60 percent ... The amount is there. That doesn’t mean they have a nuclear weapon. So, they haven’t proliferated yet.”

He also noted that the level of enrichment “is long past” the point that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned about back in 2012.

At the UN that year, Netanyahu famously held up a card featuring a cartoon bomb to illustrate how much highly enriched uranium Iran needed before it could build a bomb.

Given this context, and Netanyahu’s return to office at the helm of a shaky new coalition with a hard-right constituency, further attacks across Iran and the wider region are a strong possibility in the coming weeks and months.




Given the recent return to power of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu — pictured in 2019 talking about Iran’s nuclear research — as head of a far-right coalition government, some analysts think it likely Israel will step up its attacks on Iran. (AFP)

“To me, both attacks are the continuation of Israel’s long-range interdiction campaign to prevent Iran from (fully) weaponizing Syria and Hezbollah and achieving a nuclear weapons capability,” Farzin Nadimi, a defense and security analyst and associate fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Arab News.

“The timing might be by accident, but I would not be surprised to learn that the production hall that was attacked in Isfahan was somehow involved in Hezbollah’s precision munitions program or fabrication of components for Iran’s nuclear program.

“This was the policy of previous Israeli administrations and will continue to be the priority of current and future Israeli governments.”

Nadimi predicts that these attacks will likely increase “in size and numbers” since “the Iranian regime is expected to accelerate all its offensive deterrent programs in the future.”

Despite an “ever-existing risk of escalation at any moment,” he is unsure whether there could be an all-out war between Israel and Iran in 2023. Nevertheless, he believes “a serious exchange before 2025 is a possibility.”

Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, believes a military confrontation is inevitable if Iran moves to produce a nuclear weapon.

“We are approaching midnight before a region-wide war between Iran and Israel and the US breaks out,” he told Arab News.

“Israel, with US support, is sending a clear signal to Iran that there is a military option on the table to bring a war to Iranian soil if Iran decides to build nuclear weapons.”

In hindsight, Heras said: “It is clear that the calculations in Washington have changed and that there is a growing sense that Netanyahu might be right that only the credible threat of war will stop Iran from going for the bomb.”

Israel’s actions are part of a broader effort to pre-empt Iran’s attempt to weaponize its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip.




An image from a video that reportedly shows a drone attack on an Iranian military site in Isfahan province on Jan. 28. Experts believe Israel was probably behind this and the other recent attack on an Iranian target, in Syria. (AFP)

“With ongoing uncertainty in the West Bank, and Netanyahu’s coalition partners pushing for the annexation of Palestinian land, Netanyahu is trying to refocus his political allies in Israel on Iran,” Heras said.

“Netanyahu sees Iran, and the Iranian weapons programs, especially AI and advanced missiles, as the strategic threat to Israel.”

Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, views the latest strikes as part of the “new normal” of low-level warfare between Israel and Iran and an extension of the Syria air campaign.

“The Israeli operation in Isfahan looks to have been mostly symbolic, a statement from Israel’s new government, primarily to its domestic audience,” he told Arab News. “The evidence available suggests there was not much damage, so whatever was destroyed will cause minimal disruption.”

Orton also questions whether the Israeli campaign has inflicted any serious or lasting damage on Iran and its proxies, pointing out that Israel has struck many of the same targets in Syria multiple times to negligible effect.

“The focus on physical infrastructure with the Israeli strikes, and only occasionally on IRGC officials and scientific staff in the nuclear program, means Iran’s regime can easily regenerate what is lost,” he said.

While Israel has extensively infiltrated the Iranian intelligence apparatus, to the extent that it has neutralized the foreign operations of the IRGC and established a broad reach inside Iran, Orton says that it nevertheless continues to lose ground “at a strategic level.”




People shovel debris at the scene of a reported Israeli missile strike in Damascus, on February 19, 2023. (AFP)

In his view, Iran has already entrenched itself in Syria to the point that it cannot be removed. He also is unimpressed by “the continued Israeli belief that Russia is ‘allowing’ them to strike at Iran in Syria, rather than being incapable of stopping them.”

He described this as a “dangerous delusion” with a ripple effect that has damaged Israel’s political relations with the US and Europe since it is “holding up this ‘understanding’ with Russia as an explanation for doing so little over Ukraine.”

Iran’s entrenchment in Syria is not the only area in which it is challenging Israel. On Feb. 10, a suspected Iranian drone targeted an Israeli-linked commercial shipping tanker in the Arabian Sea.

The attack on the Liberian-flagged oil tanker linked to Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer, which caused minor damage, was viewed by observers of the “shadow war” as a salvo from the Iranian side.

“Iran also continues to be dominant in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, with threatening and growing outposts of the (Islamic) revolution in Bahrain, Afghanistan and West Africa,” Orton said.

In effect, this has left Israel “sharing three borders with Iran,” he added.

In Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, the IRGC has also been building up the quantity and quality of the weapons systems it has supplied its proxies.

For example, as part of its precision-munitions program, the IRGC has been upgrading Hezbollah’s large arsenal of missiles in Lebanon so the group can accurately strike specific targets.

As a result, according to Orton, these groups could potentially “inflict catastrophic damage” on Israel in retaliation for airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program.

“At some point, this might well be a sufficient deterrent to prevent Israel even contemplating such an attack,” he said.

“It has to be admitted that the moment where Israel could militarily stop Iran from acquiring the bomb has probably already passed. The Iranians have not formally crossed the nuclear threshold, i.e., carried out a test explosion, more for political reasons than technical ones.”

In the meantime, Heras says, Iran will continue embarking on “a clandestine campaign to ramp up pressure on the US in Iraq and to strike at Israeli assets in the region and globally.”


Jordanian PM meets UNWTO secretary-general, Arab tourism ministers

Jordanian PM meets UNWTO secretary-general, Arab tourism ministers
Updated 14 sec ago

Jordanian PM meets UNWTO secretary-general, Arab tourism ministers

Jordanian PM meets UNWTO secretary-general, Arab tourism ministers
  • Country hosting 49th meeting of UNWTO Regional Commission for the Middle East
  • ‘Common denominators, destinies, issues and interests can benefit our economies,’ Al-Khasawneh says

AMMAN: Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh on Thursday welcomed UN World Tourism Organization Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili and Arab tourism ministers in Amman, Jordan News Agency reported.
The Arab ministers and Pololikashvili are taking part in the 49th meeting of the UNWTO Regional Commission for the Middle East, which began on Wednesday near the Dead Sea.
During the meeting, which Jordanian Tourism Minister Makram Qeisi attended, Al-Khasawneh highlighted the significance of discussing strategies to strengthen collaboration and unity among Arab countries in tourism, and to chart a course for the industry in the Middle East.
“We have common denominators, destinies, issues and interests that we can utilize to benefit our economies,” the prime minister said.
He also highlighted the need to continue networking, crystallizing partnerships and drawing from successful Arab experiences in tourism.
Al-Khasawneh noted the significant tourism and cultural legacy of Arab countries, which could be used to boost regional economies.
The UNWTO meeting aims to outline regional and global tourism sector difficulties and capitalize on opportunities to develop the industry.
Pololikashvili said: “Jordan has great tourism capabilities that can be invested in and developed to serve the Jordanian economy.”
He stressed the importance of investing in the tourism sector, networking with the private sector and cooperating regionally in the field.
The secretary-general and Arab tourism ministers thanked Jordan for hosting the meeting, highlighting positive outcomes that could fulfill the tourism-related goals of regional UNWTO member states.


Children evacuated from orphanage where dozens died in Sudan’s capital

Children evacuated from orphanage where dozens died in Sudan’s capital
Updated 08 June 2023

Children evacuated from orphanage where dozens died in Sudan’s capital

Children evacuated from orphanage where dozens died in Sudan’s capital
  • ICRC said the children aged between 1 and 15 had been taken to a safer location in Wad Madani, about 200 kilometres southeast of Khartoum
  • An ICRC spokesperson said the number of evacuated children had risen to 300 by Thursday morning

CAIRO: About 300 children have been evacuated from an orphanage in Sudan’s capital Khartoum where dozens of orphans were found last month to have died since mid-April due to nearby fighting between rival military factions.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which facilitated the evacuation late on Wednesday, said the children aged between 1 and 15 had been taken to a safer location in Wad Madani, about 200 kilometers (125 miles) southeast of Khartoum.
The ICRC said in its initial statement that 280 children and 70 caretakers had been evacuated, and an ICRC spokesperson said the number of evacuated children had risen to 300 by Thursday morning.
That number was confirmed by Siddig Frini, general manager at the Khartoum state ministry of social development, which oversees care centers.
The evacuation offered “a ray of light in the midst of the ongoing conflict in Sudan,” said Mandeep O’Brien, the representative in Sudan for UN children’s agency UNICEF.
On May 29, Reuters reported that at least 50 children had died – dozens of them babies – at the state-run orphanage, known as Mygoma, since the start of the conflict in Khartoum on April 15.
An orphanage official and doctor who works there said the deaths were mainly caused by malnourishment, dehydration and infections as most staff were kept away by the fighting.
Hadhreen, a volunteer group that has been helping at the orphanage, said on Wednesday it had confirmed the deaths of 71 children at the orphanage since the conflict started.
No official death toll has been issued. The orphanage was home to about 400 young children before the conflict began.
Frini declined to provide figures on the death toll. The director of the orphanage and the health ministry couldn’t immediately be reached.
“Many millions of children remain at risk across Sudan,” UNICEF’s O’Brien said in a statement. “Their lives and their futures are being endangered by this conflict every day.”


Tunisia army helicopter missing: defense ministry

Tunisia army helicopter missing: defense ministry
Updated 08 June 2023

Tunisia army helicopter missing: defense ministry

Tunisia army helicopter missing: defense ministry
  • The Tunisian military has lost a number of aircraft on training or reconnaissance missions in recent years

Tunis: A Tunisian army helicopter with four people on board is missing and feared crashed hours after vanishing from radar screens, the defense ministry said on Thursday.
The ministry has learnt that “communications have been lost with a helicopter which was making a night flight in the Cape Serrat area yesterday (Wednesday) evening,” it said in a statement.
“Land, sea and air resources have been mobilized in coordination with the interior ministry to carry out searches to locate the aircraft and establish the fate of its crew of four.”
The Tunisian military has lost a number of aircraft on training or reconnaissance missions in recent years.
In October 2021, three soldiers were killed when an army helicopter crashed during a night exercise in the southern province of Gabes.
The findings of an official investigation into that accident have still not been released.


Fighting rages at Sudan military site facility

Fighting rages at Sudan military site facility
Updated 08 June 2023

Fighting rages at Sudan military site facility

Fighting rages at Sudan military site facility
  • Sudan has been embroiled in a deadly conflict since mid-April, when fighting erupted between army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan against his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo

KHARTOUM: Sudanese army soldiers and paramilitaries fought for control of a military facility Thursday in Khartoum where a fire raged at an oil and gas facility, witnesses said.
The battles came a day after the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced in a statement they had wrestled “full control” of the Yarmouk weapons manufacturing and arms depot complex.
Witnesses from southern Khartoum said they heard the “sound of gunfire and clashes” around the complex, the most important military industrial facility in the country.
The RSF claimed that soldiers had fled the site, leaving behind large quantities of military equipment and vehicles.
The paramilitaries also posted videos online purportedly showing their fighters inside the facility, celebrating. Weapons, including machine guns, and large quantities of ammunition could be seen in the background.
Sudan has been embroiled in a deadly conflict since mid-April, when fighting erupted between army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan against his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo — commonly known as Hemeti — who commands the RSF.
Violence has spread across the country, most notably in the western region of Darfur, which is home to around a quarter of Sudan’s population and has never recovered from a devastating two-decade war that left hundreds of thousands dead and more than two million displaced.
The fire at the Al-SHajjara oil and gas facility near Yarmouk broke out overnight Wednesday to Thursday, witnesses said.
It was not immediately clear what started the fire but residents said they heard a loud explosion at the facility, where fierce fighting has been underway for the past couple of days.
Plumes of smoke still rose from the site on Thursday morning and could be seen from as far as 10 kilometers away.
Since fighting broke out in Sudan on April 15, more than 1,800 people have been killed, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.
Nearly two million people have been displaced by the conflict, according to the latest UN figures, including 476,000 who have sought refuge in neighboring countries.
Talks mediated by Saudi Arabia and the United States broke down, and multiple cease-fires have failed to take hold.
Last week, Washington slapped sanctions on the warring generals accusing both sides for the “appalling bloodshed” after the latest truce collapsed and the army pulled out of cease-fire talks altogether.
In October 2012, Sudan accused Israel of being behind a blast at the Yarmouk facility, leading to speculation that Iranian weapons were stored or manufactured there.
Israel at that time refused to comment on Sudan’s accusation.


Blinken: US to give $150m in aid for Syria, Iraq at Saudi conference on combating Daesh group

Blinken: US to give $150m in aid for Syria, Iraq at Saudi conference on combating Daesh group
Updated 08 June 2023

Blinken: US to give $150m in aid for Syria, Iraq at Saudi conference on combating Daesh group

Blinken: US to give $150m in aid for Syria, Iraq at Saudi conference on combating Daesh group
  • Secretary of State says US pledge is part of new funding amounting to more than $600 million

DUBAI: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that the US would provide nearly $150 million in aid for areas in Syria and Iraq that were liberated from the Daesh extremist group.
He spoke at a ministerial conference hosted by Saudi Arabia on combating the group, which no longer controls any territory — but whose affiliates still carry out attacks across Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
The Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh includes more than 80 countries and continues to coordinate action against the extremist group, which at its height controlled large parts of Syria and Iraq. Blinken said the US pledge is part of new funding amounting to more than $600 million.
“Poor security and humanitarian conditions. Lack of economic opportunity. These are the fuel for the kind of desperation on which Daesh feeds and recruits,” he said, using a common acronym for the extremist group. “So we have to stay committed to our stabilization goals.”
Blinken co-hosted the conference as part of a two-day visit to the Kingdom in which he met with senior Saudi officials, including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Blinken also attended a meeting of Gulf foreign ministers.
The Saudis have launched wide-ranging diplomatic efforts to wind down their war in Yemen, resolve a crisis with Qatar, restore relations with archrival Iran and welcome Syria’s President Bashar Assad back into the Arab League after a 12-year boycott.