Though they share a long frontier, the point where Russia and China meet today is in fact America. It is because of US global dominance and its increasingly aggressive outlook since Sept. 11 that Russian and Chinese leaders Vladimir Putin and Jiang Zemin have just signed a joint declaration. It covers a wide range of international issues from North Korea to Iraq. This document comes on top of a treaty of friendship signed in July 2001.
However, such a united front against US global hegemony does not conceal the fact that both Moscow and Beijing are in a bind. Having signed up to the US-led global war on terrorism, they are finding it difficult to disassociate themselves from an agenda drawn up entirely by the Bush White House. Indeed, in Chechnya and in Xinjiang, Russia and China have happily used the anti-terror campaign to crack down on Muslim separatists.
Nevertheless, Iraq offers them an opportunity to put clear blue water between themselves and Washington, by insisting on UN approval for any warlike action against Saddam. But both Moscow and Beijing know that the lack of a UN mandate is unlikely to deflect Bush from attack. What their policy may do, however, is to accord them credibility and status during the aftermath of any such attack, especially if the end game proves a lot more difficult for the US than simply defeating the Iraqi military.
This is a change from the Cold War days. Neither Russia nor China today has international goals that can be attained through force of arms. Their pressing concerns are economic. Moscow needs outside investment flows to continue to modernize its economy. China needs continued access to global markets. Neither state is yet much dependent on trade between each other. Despite plans to boost it to some $20 billion, Sino-Russian trade flows are stuck at a relatively piffling $8 billion while China’s US trade is worth $100 billion. The key to economic prosperity for both countries lies with the Americans.
Yet there has to be value in the alternative political front that Russia and China are seeking to form, however diaphanous it may seem when assessed against the overwhelming economic interests of both countries. American power needs to be questioned. America’s basic assumption that what is good for it is good for the rest of the world ought to be challenged.
When Third World countries, led by India and Yugoslavia, banded together to form the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, they expressed an important point of view that was tangential to the interests of the two rival superpower blocs. In their way Moscow and Beijing are now laying out similar ground and, because they are both permanent members of the UN Security Council, their agenda ought to secure a more respectful hearing from the United States, the surviving superpower.
The many countries anxious as to where US aggression and purblind support for Israel are leading not just the Middle East but the wider world should welcome this week’s Sino-Russian joint declaration. They must also hope that it is a serious attempt to moderate America’s aggressive mood, and not merely a cynical window dressing.
