In the 1980s, the United States was forced to close its bases in the Philippines. Its military bases in Japan and South Korea thus became strategically very important. The bases are considered the front line of defense against possible attack, especially from China.
Continuous changes in the region produced new dangers to the United States. North Korea, for example, produced its first nuclear bomb and long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Japan had a mixed reaction to the North Korea nuclear program. It tried to have good relations with North Korea but failed, and Japan was left with no option but to continue its military relations with Washington. South Korea wishes to unify the divided peninsula for two reasons: to be the most powerful country in the region and to get rid of the American bases protecting South Korea from the north.
China, however, found the situation to be very critical. On one hand, it is a good ally of North Korea and an unstable neighbor to South Korea because of the American bases. China is beginning to change its policies since India and Pakistan, on its western borders, became nuclear powers. China likes the idea of a unified Korea, and does not mind that Korea is a nuclear country; they can both be strong influences in the region with common interest.
These strategic military changes forced Washington to delay steps to unify the Korean Peninsula. It put much pressure on Japan to form a front line against China and North Korea in the future. Japan found itself in a very difficult situation. The Japanese Constitution after World War II fobade the formation of an army capable of facing challenges in the region, fearing that Japan might have military ambitions.
Japan formed a very technologically developed army on paper. Despite the warnings, it was also a very strong army with a real military capability. This change in capability allowed Japan to conduct a military exercise with Japanese police and coast guard last November. Japanese forces also conducted a joint exercise with American forces off Hawaii last September. This is in addition to the logistic support for the United States military and its possible war against Iraq.
We must know that Japan might change its alliances with Washington in the near future, especially if it sensed a threat to its interests in the region and to its worldwide economic power. Japan will find itself forced to choose between full alliance with either China or United States especially since Washington is trying to restrict its economic spread.
The change in Japan’s position and the spread of its military role needs political decision and a change in the constitution. It is a complicated procedure but the local demand to change the constitution and the pressure from the Japanese people to eliminate American bases may speed things up. If this happens in the near future, we will see a strong Japanese military and this will once again change the military balance in the Far East.
Arab News Opinion 6 January 2003
