Unless there is a cataclysmic development around the corner, Ariel Sharon will remain prime minister when Israelis go to the polls in less than a week. And perhaps not even a cataclysmic event will remove him from power. So far nothing has worked. Neither a cash-for-votes scandal within his own party nor corruption allegations have hurt Sharon nearly as much as was expected.
Three polls published last week by the Haaretz, Yediot Aharonot and Maariv dailies credited Sharon with 30 to 34 seats in the next Knesset, while Labour leader Amram Mitzna will have to content with a meager 19 or 20.
While Mitzna looked in a good position to make a serious challenge to Sharon’s re-election bid — it was 27 seats for Likud to 26 for Labour just two weeks ago — he failed to take his campaign off the ground while Sharon confirmed his “Teflon” reputation of a politician who survives any scandal. Mitzna had tried to breathe fresh impetus into his campaign by pledging to stay out of an alliance with Sharon. But the latest surveys prove once again that national unity is a popular option with most Israelis and Mitzna’s new stance has failed to boost his chances of winning on Jan. 28.
“It is either us or him,” Mitzna told a press conference last week. “We shall not be in a government headed by Sharon. Period.”
The Palestinian leadership will be relieved if Mitzna stays true to his word. Another National Unity government under Sharon’s leadership is the worst-case scenario as far as the PA is concerned. A coalition government made up of Israel’s right and religious parties is preferable since its majority would almost certainly be too narrow and its components too factitious to survive for long.
But Mitzna’s declaration failed to energize his campaign with Israelis. Coalition governments are a part of political life in Israel; no party has ever won enough seats in the Knesset to rule without a coalition. Mitzna’s announcement that he would not join a government led by Sharon was thus a gamble which has not paid off. Instead, the decision seems to have hurt him, the polls hinting that the Labour leader might have alienated potential voters by vowing never to join a coalition led by Sharon.
There was also loud mutterings from the grass roots where the unity government option remains popular. Meir Nitzan, the mayor of Rishon Lezion and a long-time Labour stalwart, claimed the decision was not binding and vowed to get it rescinded by the party conference. And no sooner had Mitzna finished speaking, than the former Labour leader, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, listed conditions under which he said Labour would be prepared to join a national unity coalition with Likud: The construction of a 700-km fence separating Israel from Palestinian areas in the West Bank; immediate resumption of negotiations with the Palestinians; and a reordering of Israel’s social and economic priorities.
With such mixed signals coming from the opposition, it is not surprising that Sharon and Likud are recovering ground lost after the barrage of sleaze allegations. But what is mot surprising is how attacks against Israelis have not sidetracked Sharon’s march toward the polls, how Sharon’s unkept promise to bring to his people peace and security has not mattered. It would have mattered another time.
Labor supporters remember only too well what happened in the 1996 elections following the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin. Initial opinion polls showed his successor Shimon Peres holding a 25-30 percent lead over his Likud rival Binyamin Netanyahu. Peres’ lead was destroyed in a four-week blitz of suicide bombings in February and March 1996 which killed 62 Israelis. It cost Labour the election.
The same thing is going to happen once more. Israelis still believe in Sharon and his policies. This should mean that the region will have to live under the shadow of death and destruction for some more time.
