We are faced today with various ways of dealing with the Iraqi crisis. Either we stick to the topic of the hour — whether or not war will take place — or we concentrate on thinking about how we will deal with the new reality and the new government in Iraq and how that will all fit into the region after the change.
I prefer not to get involved with the topic of the hour for it is on the verge of becoming history; it is the last chapter in a crisis that first came onto the world stage some 12 years ago.
The only one capable of altering the situation has been the official Iraqi side; that side, however, has failed to deal realistically and responsibly with the crisis. As a result, they are now in the closing stages, notwithstanding what France, Germany and most Arab countries may say.
All we wish for is that whatever comes will cause as little harm as possible to all parties, the Iraqi people — even the leadership which is the real target and which is facing very difficult and dangerous days.
What is of more importance to the Arabs is to take care of the Iraqi peoples’ future rather than expending a great deal of time, effort as well as political and popular stances talking about the current regime. First, such talk is of no importance for it will change nothing on the ground and, second, such talk detracts from the core issue which is Iraq — the country and the people. These must be the world’s central concern once change has taken place.
Recently none of the Arabs have bothered to meet or communicate with the Iraqi side. They do not know who will be the legitimate authority after the change and so they hesitate.
The current authority is obviously on the verge of collapse and consequently, it would do us no harm to deal with what seems about to replace it in a way that would be of benefit to us all. Those who whisper that Israel has some interest in the coming change may be correct, but they will have no one to blame but themselves if they leave the arena open and refuse to acknowledge the new reality. Whoever insists on waiting will have no right tomorrow to give his opinion or protest because he put himself outside the equation.
The change in Iraq — whether it comes peacefully, free from internal skirmishes and battles or if it is accompanied by sectarian and other internal conflicts — will reflect on the region’s stability which will, in turn, have an impact on all of Iraq’s neighbors and the entire region. The coming Iraqi struggle is truly a battle that directly influences six countries — four of which are Arab. It is, therefore, in all our interests to acknowledge the nature of the change and the coming conflict and to be ready to lessen the accompanying problems so they don’t cause Iraq to splinter and take the region down with it.
These are the ways I see today’s dangerous crisis and I don’t believe that any of the concerned parties wish to divide Iraq or detach any part of it. To do so would of course only create more problems; it is certainly not in America’s interests to fracture a country which they say they want to make an example of. Turkey cannot afford to bring up the matter of its borders again and neither can Iran. What we fear though is that however much it may appear to everyone that we are set on a predetermined and guaranteed course, it is still possible to go off into a new and unforeseen direction. It will be up to the neighbors to guarantee Iraq’s security and stability because therein lies their own security and stability.
