MADRID, 11 March 2003 — As a war in Iraq draws closer, Spaniards have a giddy feeling that once trusted Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar is about to plunge them into a lawless, military gamble for reasons they do not understand.
“Where are you taking us, Mr. Aznar?”, the daily El Pais asked, while Socialist opposition leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero accused Aznar of leading Spain into “the dark tunnel of a unilateral war”.
How, Spaniards wonder, has the modest and pragmatic premier metamorphosed into an allegedly authoritarian leader, obsessed with rubbing shoulders with the United States, and why does he risk his party’s political fortunes for the sake of a war in a faraway land? Baffled pundits are looking for an answer in what the daily El Mundo dubbed the Moncloa syndrome, named after the prime minister’s office-residence. It refers to a psychological phenomenon affecting talented leaders whose advisors no longer dare to challenge their views and who lose touch with their electorate.
European allies such as France are more important for Spain than the US, yet Madrid sided with London and Washington against the anti-war camp led by Paris and Berlin since the beginning of the Iraq crisis.
Aznar has cultivated personal friendships with US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, conducted diplomatic missions to push their views and co-sponsored a draft United Nations resolution to pave the path to war.
Aznar has declined to say whether Spain would join the US in a war without UN endorsement, but analysts say he can no longer turn back. Spain is expected to contribute its only aircraft carrier and at least six F-18 fighter planes to the war effort.
Ousting the Socialists after 13 years in power in 1996, the moustached former tax inspector first became known as a colorless but meticulous financial manager, and rode an economic boom until winning an absolute majority in 2000.
Observers say his style then changed, and he was accused of arrogance and indifference toward trade unions and in his handling of the environmental disaster caused by the sunken oil tanker Prestige.
Aznar has not hesitated to defy massive public opposition to a war against Iraq, with polls showing that more than 80 percent of Spaniards disapprove of such a move. Millions of people have attended anti-war rallies and dissent is mounting even within Aznar’s own Popular Party (PP).
The PP now risks losing the local elections in May and the parliamentary elections next year. Aznar has pledged not to seek a third term, but his alleged plans for an international career are in jeopardy — so why does he persist in waging a loud campaign in favor of a war against Iraq?
The Spanish right has traditionally had a liking for the United States, and Aznar is seeking US support in the fight against Basque terrorism — but above all, he wants to elevate Spain to the status o of a major European power and secure his place in history.
Once regarded as a poor and backward corner of Europe, Spain has come a long way since the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, and Aznar believes the country now deserves to be on a par with major European players such as France or Germany.
“We do not want Spain seated in the corner of history, with the countries which do not count, which do not decide,” Aznar said recently.
Aznar believes that an alliance with the superpower is the way to reach that goal, and his advisors do not query that view for fear of stirring up dissent within the party and of losing their jobs, according to press reports.
“When you have been in power for many years, you lose touch with your friends and with reality,” former Socialist spokesman Eduardo Sotillos said.
The same syndrome is said to have affected other prime ministers in the Moncloa, a 17th century brick mansion where Socialist Felipe Gonzalez said he felt “alone and isolated” under the weight of responsibility.
Yet far from showing such emotions, Aznar appears perfectly relaxed and unwavering even as criticism mounts from all around.
“It is not doubt but certainty that makes princes go crazy,” El Mundo commented.
