ISLAMABAD, 17 March 2003 — The United States will not punish key ally Pakistan for refusing to back a planned war against Iraq because Washington knows that supporting the war could undermine President Pervez Musharraf and endanger the war on terrorism, Pakistani analysts say. “The Americans need Pakistan as much as Pakistan needs the US,” said Khalid Mahmud, an analyst at the state-funded Institute for Regional Studies. “They cannot afford to retaliate against Pakistan for abstaining.”
Pakistan, with a 95 percent Muslim population, has said it would not support military action on Iraq.
The Cabinet decided last Monday, according to ruling party officials, to abstain when it looked as if a vote on war was imminent in the United Nations Security Council, where Pakistan has a non-permanent seat.
Pakistan is a pivotal player in the US-led campaign to wipe out the Al-Qaeda terror network and hunt down its supremo Osama bin Laden. Islamabad’s cooperation has kept it winning a host of rewards right until Friday, when Washington announced the lifting of the last remaining military sanctions imposed after General Musharraf’s coup in October 1999.
After the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks, Washington lifted nuclear-related sanctions on military sales and training, pumped more than one billion dollars in aid, paid $600 million for using Pakistani air bases and corridors, rescheduled three billion dollars debt and promised to write off one billion dollars. Now Pakistani officials fear they will have to pay a price for saying no to US requests to support their push for war.
“There could be negative repercussions from the outside,” a senior foreign affairs adviser to the government told AFP, on condition of anonymity.
But analysts were confident Pakistan’s importance to the United States, bolstered by the capture on March 1 of Al-Qaeda kingpin Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the network’s alleged operational chief, would give it immunity from penalties.
“We should keep something in mind: This is not a one-way affair. The Americans value Pakistan’s assistance and cooperation,” Mahmud said. “And the capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed has given Pakistan a better bargaining position on Iraq.”
Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali, after appealing for more time for Iraq to disarm, on Thursday drew a line between the war on terrorism and the planned invasion of Iraq.
“The war on terrorism and the war against Iraq are two different things,” he said.
Pakistan can now say: “’This is what we have done on one front, therefore we must have the facility to take a different position on Iraq’,” Mahmud said.
