Sometimes we find ourselves confused about how things are so mixed up. It is inconceivable to call “black white” or “white black” but such confusion these days is all too common. The reason is not the lack of color perception but rather a result of our being unnecessarily contentious and allowing our arrogance and desire for prestige to lead us into error. How otherwise could we confuse protecting a land which is one of the glories of Islamic civilization with protecting a war criminal and an enemy of mankind? How could we have allowed someone like Saddam Hussein to become a symbol for pan-Arabism and Arab dignity? We are talking of a man obsessed with waging war against his neighbors. The obsession was first seen in the war with Iran — lasting for eight years, resulting in over 1.5 million people killed and hundreds of thousands taken prisoner and ending in Kuwait where a brutal Iraqi invasion unleashed a wave of murder, plunder and rape. It is tragic indeed that we have failed to make a distinction between Iraq the country and Saddam Hussein the ruler. If we honestly want to preserve Iraq as an entity and protect its people, we must admit Saddam’s crimes against his own people — one of which involved killing them with chemical weapons. We must ask who else but Saddam violated the sovereignty and sanctity of neighbor and kinship? Who else but Saddam has brought the armies of the world into our region? Is there any hope for us to learn the obvious lesson?
I believe the overwhelming majority of people in our region and in the world have no doubt that war is imminent and they fear its consequences. They fear civilian causalities, the division of Iraq, the effect of the war on the region and a host of postwar humanitarian, economic and security problems. From that perspective, I would like to put forward my idea of the war based on two things: My own military experience and the primary objectives that the Western alliance seeks from such a war.
Starting with the general plan, the assumptions are that both Turkey and Kuwait will allow the use of their land and airspace. The supreme objectives are to reduce casualties among the civilian population, prevent the division of Iraq, control the oil fields, secure legality for the new coalition government and kill, displace or arrest the present Iraqi leadership. The plan will be implemented in four stages.
Stage One: The objectives are disabling the Iraqi air defenses, destroying enemy communication and information facilities, destroying all military sectors outside cities and securing the oil fields. This will begin with providing air cover to secure air superiority within 48 hours or less. This will be followed by moving ground forces in the north from Turkey and southern forces from Kuwait or with a simultaneous sea landing in southern Iraq according to the following:
Northern Front: Ground forces will start moving on three assault axes after air superiority has been secured, together with extensive support from specialized engineering units to defuse mines in oil fields and control any fires.
First axis: Moving southward along the Iraqi-Iranian border with the main mission being to control oil fields to south and west of Kirkuk. A secondary mission will be to destroy any Iraqi forces encountered while avoiding entering Iraqi cities and villages.
Second axis: Moving south between Iraqi cities and the Iraqi-Syrian borer. A sub-axis will fan out to separate western Iraq from the country’s northeast. The objective is to destroy any Iraqi forces while keeping away from cities and villages.
Third axis: Controlling oil fields northwest of Mosul and destroying any Iraqi forces in the area.
Southern Front: Ground forces will start moving on three axes after air superiority has been secured with heavy support from specialized engineering units to defuse mines and put out fires.
First and second axis: Moving northward to control oil fields to the west and north of Basra and destroy resisting Iraqi forces while avoiding cities and villages.
Third axis: Moving northward to meet the second axis to the north in order to separate eastern Iraq from the southeast and destroy Iraqi forces in the region.
This first stage will end by controlling and securing oil fields, building bunkers and fortifications for the forces taking defensive positions and providing extra-air protection by destroying any Iraqi forces outside cities.
The massive American monitoring and surveillance capabilities — the signal system (SIGINT), communication surveillance (COMINT), electronic surveillance (ELINT), photography surveillance (PHOTINT) and human surveillance (HUMNIT) — will all be utilized to support the massive operations.
Second Stage: The objectives are guaranteeing full control of oil fields by building necessary defenses, cutting off any movement by the Iraqi forces, encircling the Iraqi forces inside cities, building a field military city in the western Iraqi desert and launching a propaganda project by installing a radio station in the military city. The second stage will begin after full control of the oil fields has been attained.
Northern Front: Forces will be stationed north of the 34th Parallel to ensure control of Mosul, Arbil and Kirkuk. Moving airborne units to the military city supported by engineering units for more protection.
Southern Front: Forces will be stationed south of the 32rd Parallel to ensure control of Najaf, Nasseriyah, Dewaniyah, Amara and Basra. One force will move north of the 32rd Parallel to surround Kerbala and meet with northern forces near Ramadi. Moving airborne units to the military city in the desert supported by engineering units for protection and support.
Third Stage: The objectives are sustained control of oil fields and security, continuous destruction of Iraqi forces outside cities, finalizing building and fortifying the military city, stationing food and medical supplies and preparing the radio and television stations for the military city.
Fourth Stage: The objectives are moving the Iraqi coalition government from outside Iraq into the military city, moving the general command of the allied forces to the military city, starting radio and television transmission under Iraqi teams who will introduce the new government.
Fifth Stage: The objectives are securing international recognition for the new Iraqi government, handing over oil resources to the new government, revoking recognition of Saddam’s government, distributing propaganda literature, launching a continued media campaign with the new government calling on the Iraqi people to rebel against Saddam’s rule and offering a bounty for killing Saddam.
Under this scenario, the stages leading to the end of Saddam’s rule will have taken shape. Saddam and his government will be left with two options: Order the army stationed in cities to move out and confront the allied forces, which is to the allies’ advantage, or leave the forces inside the cities, a situation which in my view will not last and will pose a serious threat to Saddam and his government.
Under this scenario, the main objectives I have outlined will be achieved: Reducing civilian causalities by allied troops keeping out of cities and villages, preventing the division of Iraq by forces stationed in the north, south and the center (the military city) and with the presence on Iraqi soil of an Iraqi government, controlling oil fields and ensuring Iraqi resources are managed by the new government, securing legality for the new government after gaining international recognition and killing, displacing or capturing members of the current Iraqi government. This last objective would be achieved in a matter of time.
As for the postwar era, I think, God willing, it will bring good to the region — especially to the cause which is most important to all Arabs: Palestine. The United States wants to prove its good intentions to the Arab world and the best way to do so would be by moving the peace process forward.
Arab News Opinion 18 March 2003
