WASHINGTON, 20 March 2003 — Though it denies having regrets on the matter, the White House is nonetheless taking a gamble that a quick war on Iraq will spur on the languishing US economy and boost President George W. Bush’s chances of re-election in 2004.
Polls now point to growing doubt among Americans about how diplomacy was handled at the United Nations, and about the persistently weak performance of the US economy, said Mark Mellman, a Democratic Party electoral consultant. According to a survey by Gallup, public confidence has fallen to its lowest level in seven years, with only 36 percent of the public satisfied with the direction the United States is taking, against 61 percent dissatisfied.
“The No. 1 concern is the impact (Iraq) is having on the economy and the harness it’s putting around certain sectors and causing negative growth,” agreed Scott Reed, a political strategist with the Republican party. “It’s reaching into all nooks and corners and causing great concern in both corporate boardrooms and small businesses and their bankers,” he added.
If lack of consumer confidence continues, or if employment doesn’t improve substantially between now and the start of next year, Bush’s re-election chances could be at risk, analysts from both parties agree.
“The conventional wisdom is: People need to sense that the economy is growing in a way that’s benefiting average people’s lives anywhere from four to eight months in advance of an election, so that optimism has truly sunk in,” Gene Sperling, former chief adviser to former President Bill Clinton, was quoted as saying by The Washington Post.
In addition to the impact on the economy, Republicans fear that prolonging uncertainty about the start of a US-led war on Iraq reinforces opposition to war here and could weaken Bush’s credibility as a leader.
“It’s not only the economy, what the people do want is the president to lead,” said Ron Kaufman, an electoral consultant for the Republican party. The US administration itself recognizes the importance of the election issue in Bush’s decision to launch a war against Iraq, according to conservative columnist Robert Novak, a fervent supporter of the US president.
In a recent editorial published by several newspapers, Novak wrote: “A senior Bush official privately admits what his administration cannot declare publicly. The stagnant economy, a dagger aimed at the heart of George W. Bush’s second term, will not immediately respond to the president’s economic growth program. The economic engine will not be revived until the war against Saddam Hussein is launched and won.”
Moreover, “military victory is anticipated inside the Bush administration as the tonic that will prompt corporation officers and private investors to unleash the American economy’s dormant power,” Novak wrote.
