TEHRAN, 16 June 2003 — For Islamic Iran, protests by students and other opponents, American threats, human rights violation charges and accusations over its nuclear projects are nothing new. But for all of these to be raised simultaneously is indeed new, and considered even by establishment officials the toughest challenge the Islamic republic has faced since its establishment in 1979.
Deployment of troops of the “Great Satan” — the United States — to Iran’s east (Afghanistan) and west (Iraq), plus American accusations of supporting and sheltering terrorists and seeking production of weapons of mass destruction, are only part of the dilemma. Such US accusations are strongly reminiscent of those used before the military strikes against Iraq. So the perceived threat is seriously by Iran’s political leaders.
“We must accept that we are indeed facing a new and serious challenge, and only unity can maintain our national security against US threats,” said Kazem Jajali, a member of the Foreign Policy Commission of the reform-oriented Parliament. But it is that very unity at home which seems to have become the latest dilemma. A number of students and other opponents, said to be monarchists, have been calling during a string of protest gatherings for fundamental changes in the form of a referendum. Such a call for a referendum to amend the political status quo was initially the plan of reformists close to President Mohammad Khatami, after a parliamentary bill to increase the power of the president was rejected as unconstitutional by hard-liners in the senate-like Guardian Council.
But the latest referendum call — using slogans even against Khatami, once the political guru of the students — is seen as going in a different direction. Hard-line clergy had anticipated right from the beginning that the referendum plan was just a prologue for toppling the Islamic system and replacing it with a secular one.
There are indeed two standpoints within the protestors. One favors strengthening Khatami’s democratic course. The other seeks to change the whole system. Pro-Khatami students — in line with reformist officials — are calling for maintaining the current Islamic framework but boosting the role of the president to head of state — a position which constitutionally is held at the moment by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The other students’ groups, frustrated by Khatami’s inability to confront his hard-line opponents over the past six years, want the Islamic structure replaced by a Western-style democracy. It is hard to estimate which group has the upper hand among the students. But the fact is that Khatami would lose the remaining students’ support if he took no effective steps against his hard-line opponents, political analysts say.
The Iranian administration says the protests by “genuine” students focus only on union-related issues — although this has still prompted Higher Education Minister Mostafa Moein to question why such protests have been made after midnight. The political protestors, shouting harsh slogans against Khamenei and even Khatami, are branded by the establishment as political mercenaries of the US which, Tehran says, is just following its long-time main aim of toppling the Islamic administration. The protestors — whose number has been variously estimated at hundreds or even thousands, in the absence of any clear confirmation — have received supportive voices from the US State Department which has also expressed deep concern over some 80 detained students.
The government has deployed a large number of police and anti-riot forces at the demonstration venue in downtown Tehran, under the direct supervision of the Tehran police chief. Reporters have largely been banned from covering the protests. In some cases they were even beaten up by police and security forces, temporarily detained and their equipment seized. Islamists loyal to the hard-line clergy circles have also gone to the site, despite a police ban, provoking confrontation with the protestors. Unconfirmed reports say some have even carried guns.
