George Bush, like his friend Tony Blair and like his predecessor Bill Clinton, says he wants to help Africa. Africa certainly needs some help. But what should the US do?
Bush is visiting five African countries in the course of the week: Senegal, South Africa, Botswana, Uganda and Nigeria. These are all very different countries with different kinds of societies, economies and political systems and very different roles in their region and in the world.
Foreigners and some Africans tend to generalize about Africa. But Africa is more varied and heterogeneous than any other continent.
Nigeria, Bush’s briefing notes will remind him, is Africa’s most populous country. About half the population is Muslim — which makes it one of the largest Muslim countries in the world.
Nigeria is a large oil producer and a member of OPEC. But oil has only made a few Nigerians rich. Eighty percent of Nigerians live on less than a dollar a day.
Nigeria has been ruled for most of its modern history by military dictatorships. It is the sub-regional hegemon in West Africa.
The civilian president Olusegun Obasanjo is himself a former military ruler. He is now in his second term as elected president, but has failed to introduce the political and economic reforms necessary to stabilize the country, to end corruption and to prevent a high level of localized violent conflict in several parts of the country.
Botswana by contrast has a tiny population. Its economy is one of the most successful in Africa, based on the exploitation of rich diamond mines. The country is relatively well governed and conflict-free. Per capita income is high. Most economic indicators are positive.
But not all is rosy. Thirty percent of Botswanans are HIV positive. It is not an exaggeration to say that unless and until the problem of HIV/AIDS is addressed effectively, the very survival of the country will be in jeopardy.
The other African nations on Bush’s itinerary are equally diverse. It will be helpful for Africa if Bush comes back from his trip with an understanding of the political diversity and variety of Africa.
One set of solutions, one model of conflict prevention, HIV/AIDS prevention, poverty reduction, etc. is not going to provide the panacea for Africa’s many problems.
Bush’s African hosts are going to want financial and technical assistance to deal with all these problems. The US is already doing quite a bit. Much of the $15 billion Bush allocated for a global effort to combat HIV/AIDS will go to Africa. The US is also the largest provider of development assistance to Africa.
The Africa Growth and Opportunities Act provides some new trade incentives to a selection of the US’s African trading partners. The US is also actively involved in diplomatic efforts to tackle violent conflicts in Africa. It may even send US peacekeepers to Liberia.
But Africa wants Bush and other Western leaders to do more — particularly on trade. Unless the developed world reduces its trade tariffs, ends protectionism and allows Africa to compete fairly on world markets it will be very hard for African states to escape from the cycle of poverty, debt and conflict which threaten so many of them.
Some Africans would also like to see Bush lean on US companies to do more to cooperate in efforts to reduce corruption in Africa.
They say that the corruption is not all on the side of the African governments. The failure of big companies, particularly in the oil sector, to publish what they pay to African governments in royalties and other fees is blocking efforts by civil society to promote accountability and transparency.
But the demands are not all going to be one way. Bush will be coming to Africa with his own wish list. High on the list will be counter-terrorism measures. Africa’s problems — including violent conflict and state failure in places like Somalia, the Congo and Liberia — are now seen by the US as providing potential opportunities for international criminal and terrorist networks.
The most serious Al-Qaeda attack on US interests prior to Sept. 11 was the suicide bomb attack on the US Embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, in 1998. There are also reports that Al-Qaeda has been raising and laundering funds through Africa’s informal economies.
The US can take and already is taking a number of measures to counter the threat of terrorism, including training local security forces, forensic accounting, intelligence gathering and surveillance.
But one lesson of Afghanistan has been that the US cannot afford to ignore the deeper problems of violent conflict, poverty, misrule and state collapse in the developing world. Another lesson of Afghanistan (which the US also learned in Somalia and is now learning in Iraq) is that dealing with these problems is very complex, difficult and costly.
Another issue on Bush’s list is oil. More than ten percent of US oil imports already come from the West African coast. Recent exploration has revealed much larger reserves than previously realized in the territorial waters of Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Nigeria.
For financial reasons Bush will want US companies to be in the forefront of exploiting this oil. And for strategic reasons he will want to develop the region as an important alternative source for US oil imports — an alternative, that is, to the Middle East.
Finally there are some domestic US politics tied up in Bush’s visit. Africa is important for African Americans who form a significant part of the US electorate.
Many African American leaders have campaigned for the US to do more to help Africa. Even if Africa is not the highest of US strategic priorities, showing that he cares about Africa will not do Bush any harm in his efforts to get re-elected.
Arab News Opinion 8 July 2003
