MANILA, 29 July 2003 — The failed mutiny in the Philippines has highlighted how President Gloria Arroyo’s political future is inextricably linked with the armed forces leaders who brought her to power, analysts say.
Despite the collapse of the uprising by disgruntled junior officers, analysts said the eighth military rebellion in 17 years showed how little headway has been made in reforming the key pillar of government. Arroyo “becomes even more beholden” to the generals who helped put the former vice president in power less than three years ago, said Rex Robles at the Manila-based RCR security risk management consultancy. He said that whatever the outcome of the revolt, Arroyo would no longer be a serious player by the time of the next presidential elections in May 2004. She has yet to decide whether to stand.
Bruce Gale, Singapore-based political risk analyst of Hill and Associates Risk Consultancy, said that to some extent it could be argued the 55 year-old grandmother was now a hostage to the military. But he said, “The fact that they surrendered so quickly limited the potential damage to (Arroyo). Now she can go to the nation and say, ‘We had this problem and we have dealt with it.’” Gale said there was no doubt the mutiny was an embarrassment coming hard on the heels of the escape of top Jemaah Islamiyah bomb-maker Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi from a Manila police cell. “But it is too early to say it will affect her chances in the election,” he added.
About 300 special forces troops seized a complex in the Makati financial district before dawn Sunday, hours after Arroyo accused the young officers of hatching a plot against her government. The uprising collapsed on Sunday night after the soldiers failed to rally popular support or help from other military units. The leaders of the uprising called for Arroyo and Defense Minister Angelo Reyes to resign, accusing them of corruption and instigating terrorist attacks in the south to win more anti-terror aid from the United States. They also complained about endemic graft by senior military officers, poor pay and conditions for lower ranks, and lack of logistical support to soldiers on the frontlines fighting Muslim and Communist rebels.
Arroyo has staked her reputation on a close alliance with the United States in the war on terrorism, and has received US military support and advisers to go after Muslim militants in the south. “You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, but you can do something to the environment by which these grievances emanate,” said Clarita Carlos, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.
Unless the government pays attention to address the rebels’ apparently legitimate grievances, “sometime in the future you’ll have that thing again,” warned Carlos, a former president of the state-run National Defense College. Carlos said she did not condone the rebellion, but that corruption needed to be tackled.
Robles cited government allegations that the mutineers must have gotten logistical support from the camp of detained ex-President Joseph Estrada, who he said “still looms large in the background of Philippine politics.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see some government concessions to Estrada in the next few weeks. He helped Arroyo by not doing things” that could have contributed to the success of the revolt, Robles added. Earlier Monday police arrested Ramon Cardenas, Estrada’s former political adviser, and alleged they found weapons and ammunition linked to the coup at his house.
