JAKARTA, 9 August 2003 — Osama Bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda network has been described by experts as a terror chain with franchises worldwide.
But this week’s Jakarta bombing, if it turns out to be the work of an Al-Qaeda affiliate, suggests that head office may not need a strong grip on its distant outposts.
Despite public public revulsion at indiscriminate violence that kills people from the local community and designated targets alike, some analysts believe there will be no shortage of new recruits to the cause.
“Smiling bomber” Amrozi’s broad grin and thumbs-up gesture after a court in Bali sentenced him to death on Thursday for last year’s nightclub bombings on the island must have chilled victims, their relatives and moderate Muslims alike.
But to men like the Indonesian mechanic, schooled in Muslim madrassas, such defiance could be an inspiration.
“I think that if he were executed...there could be martyr affect which would likely be counterproductive,” said Tim Huxley, senior fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
“I think a death sentence, if carried out, is unlikely to act as a deterrent, because some of the groups like Jemaah Islamiah, who carried out the Bali attack and the attack in Jakarta a few days ago, are committed to the idea of becoming martyrs,” he said.
The Marriott Hotel bombing suggests would-be martyrs can expect to draw on the organization, experience and resources of organizations such as the shadowy Jemaah Islamiah militant group that has already emerged as the chief suspect.
Those resources appear to be formidable and the organization still relatively intact even after 10 months at the forefront of the Bali bombing manhunt.
“These guys don’t rush into doing these things,” said Zachary Abuza, expert on security in Southeast Asia at Simmons College in Boston. “I think it will come out in the investigation that they had been planning this for at least two months.”
Neither do those inspired by Osama Bin Laden lack for soft targets, which by definition are impossible to defend. “If you put security around a hotel then they’ll hit a mall. There are a lot of soft targets,” said Abuza. Jemaah Islamiah has favored such targets since top operatives changed strategy in early 2002. The group is seen as the Asian link to Al-Qaeda because members fought in Afghanistan and because its operations chief, elusive Indonesian Hambali, is believed to sit on Al-Qaeda’s military committee. The similarity of the Bali bomb to the composition of the Marriott explosives has been the first indication of links to JI — many of whose members are among the 38 men on trial for Bali.
“One would be foolish to underestimate JI’s capabilities or goals,” wrote Abuza in a summary of the state of the group last week.
“As many of the key operatives are at large, the organization retains the capacity and will to launch devastating terror attacks throughout the region.”
