WASHINGTON, 15 December 2003 — When National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice told President George W. Bush before dawn Sunday that Saddam Hussein had indeed been captured, she was delivering news that was good for the US leader in a multitude of ways.
Saddam’s capture will help Bush with a American public increasingly skeptical of his Iraq strategy and it will at least temporarily silence his Democratic rivals.
It may also help calm the situation in Iraq, where many Iraqis have been unwilling to embrace a new government as long as Saddam was at large.
The war in Iraq — which began March 19 with a dramatic, but unsuccessful, round of missile strikes aimed at Saddam — sent Bush’s poll ratings soaring, but they then fell to levels before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks as the postwar situation grew increasingly dangerous.
The missile strikes would be only the first of many times over nine months that Saddam would prove elusive.
Now, having Saddam in custody is likely to pay dividends for Bush’s presidency on a number of fronts.
US Lt. Gen. Richardo Sanchez, speaking at a Baghdad news conference, described Saddam’s capture as a “defining moment in the future of Iraq.” US officials have always believed that taking Saddam off the scene would help defuse the still dangerous situation in Iraq.
If the deadly insurgency that has been killing American soldiers almost daily begins to subside, that could lead to a drawdown of US troop levels there that would please many Americans.
“The capture of Saddam Hussein will clearly take the wind out of the sails of the Baath insurgents,” said US Rep. Ike Shelton, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee. “I think the road to a more stable Iraq is much clearer as a result of this capture.”
Having Saddam in custody is as much a symbolic prize as a tactical one.
At home, Democrats campaigning for the 2004 presidential elections and on Capitol Hill have latched onto the chaotic situation in Iraq overseas to criticize Bush for not gaining enough international cooperation on the war and for not planning adequately for the war’s messy aftermath.
Partly as a result, the president’s poll ratings have leveled off around the 50 percent mark. They will certainly spike again, just as Bush’s Democratic rivals begin their primary battle in earnest with the New Year.
Some of the president’s most fervent critics have also suggested that the Iraq war was a personal mission for Bush, saying he was only trying to complete the work of his father, the former president who waged the United States first victorious war against Iraq but who pulled out without toppling Saddam.
There are some tricky decisions to be made ahead.
Without directly saying so, US administration officials had clearly preferred to see Saddam killed than captured, as having him in custody raises questions about a trial.
All this had the White House in the strange position of being in full gear early yesterday — but mostly silent .
Blaming a snowstorm, Bush canceled his plans to attend church. He had first learned of the raid’s possible success Saturday afternoon, then received confirmation that it was Saddam that had been captured from Rice — who had been called by L. Paul Bremer, US administrator in Iraq — around 5 a.m. yesterday (1000 GMT).
But even as Bush headed into White House and senior aides rushed in before dawn, hours passed after the news was delivered to the world from a Baghdad news conference and there still was no official reaction from Washington. Perhaps reflecting the desire not to gloat when US troops are still in danger overseas and the fallout remains unclear, aides even declined to describe Bush’s reaction at the news.
Pressed on whether the day brought good news for the White House, all one aide would repeatedly say is: “This is good news for the Iraqi people.”
