LONDON, 1 January 2004 — In a neat bit of symmetry, why not end the year as we began it? On Jan. 1 this column made six reckless predictions for 2003. The first was that the US and Britain would take military action in Iraq. Next came forecasts that Ariel Sharon would be re-elected in Israel, going on to rule with a narrow, right-wing coalition rather than a government of national unity; that UK Finance Minister Gordon Brown would say the five economic tests on the euro had not been passed; that the new constitution for Europe would end up as a dish of classic Brussels fudge; that the UK Conservatives would dump their leader, Iain Duncan Smith; and that Northern Irish elections would see Sinn Fein and anti-agreement Unionists emerge as the two biggest forces in the province.
OK, maybe it didn’t exactly take an astrologer to predict war in Iraq or, indeed, any of the above. And the European guess turned out to be far too optimistic; instead of a fudge, the union did not agree a constitution at all. But there is the beginning of a tradition to maintain here, so why not give it another whirl?
1. In UK, Justice Hutton is due to publish his findings on Jan. 12. Officially, all he is required to do is offer a full account of the “circumstances surrounding the death of (UK government scientist) Dr. David Kelly”, but the conventional wisdom has already endowed the Hutton report with much more significance than that. It is, they say, the document that could destroy Tony Blair and transform the BBC.
Reckless prediction: Hutton steers clear of the ground that could be most perilous for Blair — the honesty or otherwise of the September 2002 dossier on Iraq’s military capacity. Hutton spreads the pain evenly. The Blair bites his lower lip and takes full responsibility — but survives. Likeliest heads to roll are at the Ministry of Defense: Geoff Hoon is vulnerable, but so are his mandarins.
2. In the US, this month sees the first tests of Democratic opinion, in Iowa and New Hampshire. The winner there will then hurtle into a sharply accelerated contest whose outcome should be clear by March. With no primary challenge on the Republican side, the Democratic winner will go head-to-head with George Bush in November in a contest that will profoundly affect the world for the rest of the decade.
Reckless prediction: Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean dominates the early contests. On Feb. 3, in South Carolina, the field winnows, with a single Stop Dean candidate emerging from the pack; there is a southern surge for former Gen. Wesley Clark. But it is not enough: Dean is the nominee. Meanwhile, Bush enjoys the huge advantage handed him by the absence of a primary battle. Unopposed, he strives toward November. With the economy improving, Saddam in captivity and Dean easily lampooned as a a McGovernite liberal, Bush walks it.
3. Iraq. The American dilemmas persist. Should we stay or should we go? Should we carry this burden alone or allow others, including those in the coalition of the unwilling who refused to back the war, a piece of the reconstruction action too?
Reckless prediction: Day to day anti-occupation violence continues, taking the shine off the Saddam capture — it proves he was not directing the resistance from his spider hole after all. The Americans, mindful of their electoral timetable, start looking for exits. Bush family retainer and presidential special envoy James Baker negotiates a deal with France and the other refuseniks: They give international legitimacy to Iraqi elections in return for lucrative reconstruction contracts. The elections — run as local caucuses rather than under the traditional, but less controllable, one-person, one-vote system — take place in August and are hailed as proof that America’s mission of liberation is accomplished. To be on the safe side, “legal process” ensures Saddam gets nowhere near a dock — where he might shoot his mouth off about past US support for his regime — at least not before November.
4. According to the US-backed road map for Middle East peace, a viable, independent Palestinian state should be just 12 months away. Yet there was next to no progress in 2003 — just fine speeches and a signing ceremony in June, followed by the departure of moderate Palestinian PM Abu Mazen in September. Will 2004 be any better?
Reckless prediction: Washington, in an election year, refuses to pressure Israel. Violence continues. But the cracks in the domestic Israeli ice that appeared in 2003 get wider in 2004. A consensus emerges, from the military elites down, that Sharon’s way is futile. In a shock development, the corruption allegations that have long swirled over the PM engulf him and he is forced to resign. He is replaced by Netanyahu.
5. In what is likely to be the last full year before a general election and the start of Labour’s eighth in office, how will the domestic landscape look in UK?
Reckless prediction: The Conservative Party’s new leader Michael Howard continues to get good ink from the right-wing press, especially when bolstered by a solid result in June’s elections for the European Parliament. Gordon Brown stays on.
6. And finally. Finding Nemo is nominated as best picture at the Oscars and England do well in the European Championships. How well? Now here is where the crystal ball begins to get a little cloudy... Happy New Year.
