ISLAMABAD, 7 January 2004 — South Asia’s nuclear giants India and Pakistan have made a huge breakthrough by talking for the first time since their near-war in 2002, but analysts warn it could still take years to resolve the crisis at the heart of more than half a century of tensions: Kashmir.
“I don’t share the optimism that everything will be solved,” former Pakistani Foreign Secretary Najmuddin Sheikh said. “It is going to be a slow process in terms of resolving the thorny issue of Kashmir.”
The talks between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf on the sidelines of a South Asia summit generated optimism that the region’s giants could begin a dialogue toward a lasting peace.
Most significantly they produced a joint pledge to resume talks, stalled since July 2001 when the two men last met in India’s Agra city and failed to make headway.
“To carry the process of normalization forward the president of Pakistan and the prime minister of India agreed to commence the process of the composite dialogue in February 2004,” they said in a statement issued yesterday.
The Himalayan region of Kashmir, claimed by both countries, has caused two of the neighbors’ three wars.
“There will (have to) be discussion on Kashmir because Pakistan will not be satisfied without a settlement of the issue,” said Pakistani military analyst Talat Masood, a retired general.
Pakistan has long demanded that Kashmiris be allowed to participate in a referendum to choose between rule by India or Pakistan, but India insists Kashmir is an integral part of its territory and refuses to give it up. “India has to address the Kashmir problem in the valley politically, not through its military occupation,” Masood added.
“India will have to take measures indicative of a change in its attitude in Kashmir. This is the feeling that is emerging now in India also.” Muchkund Dubey, who has served as India’s foreign secretary, was upbeat on prospects of a result on Kashmir.
“If the talks resume ... then Kashmir has to come as the main subject or else Pakistan will not accept any talks,” Dubey said, warning there would be no instant results.
“India should go the farthest and grant autonomy because that is the only way to keep Kashmir with India, but I am not quite sure it is on the agenda of (Vajpayee’s Hindu Nationalist) BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party).
“A solution has to be found and this solution relates to what steps India takes to win the hearts and souls of the Kashmiris.”
Another former Indian Foreign Secretary S.K. Singh said the question of granting autonomy to the people of Indian Kashmir would depend on the course of the talks. “Autonomy would depend on how far the two sides travel together. And it cannot be done within a day or two and they will have to watch us and we will have to watch them,” the ex-diplomat told AFP.
“It will have to be a step-by-step approach before full discussions on Kashmir and our disputes on the subject can be fruitful.” Former Pakistani Foreign Minister Agha Shahi detected “a new atmosphere” but cautioned: “To say the meeting will resolve the crisis, is too much to expect.”
