When Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan meets President Bush in the White House today, the most important matter he raises will be the future of the Turkish north of Cyprus as the Greek part of the island prepares for full membership in the European Union. The failure of the Northern Cyprus government of Raul Denktash to cut a deal with the neighboring Greek Cypriot government last year was a blunder, for both the Turkish Cypriots and also for the interests of Turkey.
It is slowly dawning on Ankara that once the Greek part of Cyprus becomes the island’s representation in Brussels, the claim could be advanced that Turkey, by underpinning and protecting the local Turkish community, is in fact the military occupier of some EU territory. This could throw into chaos plans to advance Turkey’s own membership, could jeopardize its existing associate membership and might even, in theory at least, lay Turkey open to strong and painful EU sanctions. Such an eventuality may seem unlikely, but there remain elements within the EU who would like to delay even further the likelihood of Turkish membership.
Thus Erdogan is seeking to undo the knot into which the intransigence of Denktash and his hard-line supporters has tied both the Turkish Cypriot community and Turkey itself. The United Nations is frankly unenthusiastic about resuming its mediation role. It facilitated a deal last year which was a good one for both sides. But Denktash held out for more concessions and the negotiations collapsed. When the Turkish premier approached UN’s Kofi Annan at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, the secretary-general was apparently sympathetic but would give no assurances.
Hence the importance of the Turkish leader’s visit to President Bush. He wants the Americans to broker a new deal. The Bush administration has indicated that it would like to help. However, realistically, it is hard to see how effective its intervention might be. Ankara may be all for reopening negotiations and a reluctant Denktash drawn into the plan, but there is now no reason for the Greek Cypriot community to bother. They have achieved EU membership without their fellow islanders. They stand to benefit hugely from EU financial support. Why should they now play along and allow the Turkish Cypriot community to share in the bounty?
If the Greeks agreed to any new terms, those terms are certain to be far less favorable to the Turkish inhabitants than the laboriously brokered UN deal which Denktash rejected. It is a pity that Ankara was not more forceful with the Turkish Cypriot government when it had the chance. Now, thanks to Denktash’s stubbornness, Ankara faces a potentially disastrous confrontation with the EU. Even if he wants to help, it is hard to see how Bush’s intervention at this point will achieve anything.
