LONDON, 29 January 2004 — The gloomy faces on Labour MPs from across the party last night — and the broad grins on the face of every Tory MP in sight — served as a warning to Downing Street.
To have turned an apparently unassailable parliamentary majority of 161 into a mere five MPs shows that Tony Blair will have to mend his ways if he is to impose his authority on his party again.
“Tony Blair can never again try and impose his authority on the Labour Party in such a heavy handed way,” said one Labour rebel who changed sides in the hours before the vote.
As the prime minister found himself dubbed the “Houdini of British politics”, his aides will reflect that the dynamics of his government will change forever. Any attempt to introduce such controversial reforms without proper consultation — and without selling them as efforts to help the poor — will spell another debilitating round of rebellions.
As Downing Street works out its new tactics, No 10 will also have to reflect on how the efforts of Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown may embolden his supporters to challenge the prime minister. The late defection of Nick Brown, the chancellor’s most devoted admirer, was crucial in winning the vote. Up to seven MPs are believed to have followed his lead, delighting the Brownites, who boasted that they had saved the day.
“Blair reigns, but Brown rules,” observed the Tory co-chairman, Liam Fox.
Some of Gordon Brown’s more fervent supporters would like the world to believe that the chancellor had once again rescued the prime minister at the 11th hour before a crucial Commons vote.
“People did a reality check and realized that Tony Blair was going to lose very badly. That would have been meltdown and so they changed,” one senior supporter of the chancellor said.
Official figures from the Brown camp dismissed this as a grossly simplistic view because their man, they said, had been weighing in behind the prime minister for weeks.
That did not wash with Blairites, who criticized the Brownites for peddling “overhyped” spin.
“I know what the headlines will be tomorrow,” one well — placed Blair supporter said. “You will write that Gordon has once again ridden to the rescue of the prime minister, who is therefore weakened. It is not quite that simple.”
The Blairites argue that it was the chancellor who blinked first, on Monday night, when the prime minister refused to water down his controversial plan.
“Gordon saw that rebels were coming our way on Monday night and he panicked,” the Blairite said. “He did not want Tony to lose the vote and for his camp to be seen as old Labour. Within hours, Nick Brown had switched.”
As Downing Street reflected on its narrow victory, two things are clear, which raise questions about the prime minister and the chancellor.
To have been on the verge of losing a flagship bill at second reading means that the prime minister will never again assert his authority in the way he did so effortlessly until the Iraq war. Labour MPs know that prime ministers who struggle to command their parties tend to have a limited shelf life.
While Nick Brown delivered the crucial votes, his failure to trigger a big collapse in the rebellion shows the chancellor’s writ does not run quite as far as his supporters hoped.
This was not lost on at least one member of the Cabinet. “Don’t assume it’s in the bag for Gordon Brown if there is a vacancy,” the minister said. “This is not the Stuart dynasty, this is the Labour Party.”
Blairites, who admit that the prime minister’s authority has been dented, believe that two factors will embolden him at the expense of the chancellor. While Charles Clarke can expect a bumpy ride as his higher education bill winds its way through Parliament, the measure will be the last controversial public service reform before next year’s general election.
“The parliamentary Labour Party should behave from now on,” one Blairite said.
Blair’s refusal to budge on the bill’s core principles gave heart to his supporters. “The so-called concessions are meaningless, which was pretty clear when Nick Brown struggled to explain himself in the chamber,” a supporter of the prime minister said.
The Blair-Brown relationship passed another milestone which will set the tone for their dealings in the run-up to the election. “What does Tony think about Gordon’s conduct? Nothing out of the ordinary,” one well placed Blairite said.
