There are many surprises in Russian politics but the re-election of Vladimir Putin as the president next month will not be one of them. All the evidence gathered by pollsters and pundits suggests that he enjoys widespread popular support. However, there are many other things in Russian politics that are strange.
The five-day disappearance of Ivan Rybkin, one of Putin’s presidential rivals remains a mystery. After Rybkin resurfaced in the Ukraine, he went quickly to London, where he told a press conference that he had been held against his will and would not be returning to Russia until after the March 14 presidential poll.
British journalists may have taken Rybkin’s story seriously. However back in Russia, most of the press, including publications which are not necessarily supportive of, poured scorn on Rybkin, all firmly convinced that his disappearance was a publicity stunt.
Yet it should not be forgotten that Rybkin, a former speaker of the Russian Parliament during Boris Yeltsin’s presidency, succeeded to the leadership of the reformist Liberal Russia Party, after its leader Sergei Yushenkov was murdered last year. The party is widely seen as the political vehicle of the superrich entrepreneur Boris Berezovsky, who fled Russia when Putin cracked down on the business activities of his predecessor’s inner circle.
Rybkin has in the past denounced Putin’s Chechnya policy and appeared with rebel leader Akhmed Zakayev in London, after the latter had won his legal battle to avoid being extradited from Britain to Russia. Rybkin has claimed that Putin treats all political opponents as criminals.
It is certain that Putin, as an ex-KGB man, probably has fewer democratic instincts than many of Russia’s politicians. But he has demonstrated himself to be a pragmatist. Though his softly spoken demeanor suggests that he is a mild man, he has earned himself a reputation for being tough and uncompromising. Even those Russians who care about who is in the Kremlin — and there is extensive apathy about politics — admire their president. That is why, barring an extraordinary upset, it seems inconceivable that Putin will not be re-elected next month. Given that level of certainty, why should the Kremlin stoop to such dramatic underhand tactics as kidnapping a rival, whose support is reckoned to amount to just one per cent of the electorate? Unless some underling acted out of misguided loyalty to his boss, the involvement of the Putin campaign seems unlikely. However the questions remain.
The struggle to control Russia’s wealth among entrepreneurs continues and it is not a game with gentlemanly rules, involving as it has murders and intimidation. Rybkin’s disappearance unfortunately fits this pattern. However much the Russian press may laugh, there are still questions that need to be answered.
