Americans are becoming increasingly absorbed in preparations for their November presidential election. Iraq will be a big issue during the campaign. At stake will be George W. Bush’s judgment and competence as the military’s commander in chief. The Middle East peace process seems doomed to take a back seat.
This analysis lies behind the European trip of Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal, which ends today in Poland. Prince Saud has also been in Belgium and Switzerland. At each stop the Saudi delegation has sought to gauge European interest in reviving the Middle East peace process.
Among some European leaders there is clearly a desire to see a just settlement. But would that wish extend to trying to push for a deal without the Americans? The French and the Germans might be keen. The British certainly would not be. Yet condemnation from Europe of the Israeli concrete curtain has been much more trenchant than from Washington. Israeli politicians are far less sure of Zionist influence in European capitals. They have come to suspect any European initiative. Europeans do not start from the premise, as the US does, that Israel is inevitably the victim and the Palestinians are the aggressors. Europeans are also better informed about its history and the great injustices that have taken place. Hawkish Israelis will therefore hope that no compelling new initiative will emerge from Europe. The biggest threat would be if such a plan had the tacit backing of a White House that was otherwise too busy fighting an election. Washington is however unlikely to sanction a unilateral European move. All the Israeli government would have to do is string out any new talks.
Meanwhile murdering more Palestinian hard-liners would provoke more suicide bomb atrocities. Any European initiative that ever looked in danger of going anywhere could easily be drowned in a fresh wave of blood and howls of Israeli outrage. Israel’s American friends will be back and paying attention again by the end of the year. Nevertheless, the Europeans are not entirely powerless. The visits of Prince Saud and other key Arab personalities are not wasted. Europe needs to keep in touch with the region’s concerns; it needs to stay informed.
Timing so often dictates the effectiveness of any diplomatic intervention. The Oslo talks happened because they caught the tide of events. That was Europe’s last big contribution. What will comprise the next high tide? A new Democrat administration could pretend it had its own brand-new ideas and elbow Europe aside. A second-term Bush presidency could not use that excuse. It has run out of ideas for a Palestinian settlement. It doesn’t even see the linkage with its problems in Iraq. Come December, a re-elected President Bush could start listening to the Europeans.
