Russia is playing a dangerous game in the Caucasus. The overwhelming electoral victory of Vladimir Putin, the man who initiated the present bloody drive against Chechen nationalists, has condemned the region to yet more bloodshed. Moscow remains resolute that Chechnya’s separatist movement will be crushed.
Yet at the same time, President Putin’s administration has been actively encouraging different separatist movements in its southern neighbor Georgia. The South Ossetians effectively run an autonomous enclave in the north of the country and are supported by their North Ossetian neighbors across the border in Russia. Moscow has been equally supportive of separatists in Abkhazia, in northwest Georgia which contains the important port of Sukhomi — though, as in South Ossetia, it has stopped short of backing a full break. Nevertheless 10,000 people have died in fighting in Abkhazia. Now Russia’s hand can be seen behind the independent stance taken up by the Ajarians, in southwestern Georgia with the port of Batumi. Once occupied by Ottoman Turkey, the majority of Ajarians is Muslim.
Georgia’s new president, Mikhail Saakashvili, had the humiliation of being turned back by Ajari militiamen when he tried to enter the region this week. When the avowedly nationalist president announced that Georgian security forces should act in the face of this provocation, Moscow warned that it would not stand for military intervention. Given the continued presence since Georgian independence in 1991 of Russia bases in the Ajarian region, as in Abkhazia, this was not an idle threat.
Under the urbane and well-traveled former president, Eduard Shevardnadze, Georgia had reached out for American support. As a former Soviet foreign minister, Shevardnadze was well placed to persuade the Americans to invest billions in a pipeline to Turkey through Georgia from Azerbaijan. American troops meanwhile have taken over an old Russian base outside the capital and have implemented a $65 million program to train and equip the Georgian Army.
Moscow is clearly out to make life difficult for Georgia, but the policy is risky. An unstable and poor Georgia, even though protected by America, will only contribute to wider instability in the Caucasus. The divisions that Russia is encouraging today to keep Georgia compliant with its wishes could well one day be turned against Moscow. If Putin opposes Chechen separatists, then he should not be supporting separatists in a neighboring country. Rather than trying to hold Georgia to ransom, Russia should be working actively to heal the country’s divisions and allow it to make its own way in the world.
