KABUL, 23 March 2004 — A brief but bloody burst of factional fighting sparked by the killing of a cabinet minister in one of Afghanistan’s few stable cities bodes ill for US-led efforts to restore order before elections later this year. Two and a half years into a campaign to crush remnant Taleban militants, US troops must have been stunned when two groups on the side of the Kabul government battled with heavy weapons in the streets of the western city of Herat. More than 100 people, including civilians, died in Sunday’s fighting.
Efforts to restore order are not the only victim. Also hurt are President Hamid Karzai’s credibility in extending his authority into restive provinces and a pledge by US-led forces to ensure security for Afghanistan’s first-ever free elections in June. “This is going to be a huge setback for the elections; for the Americans,” said Pakistani author and Afghan expert Ahmed Rashid. Such bloody battles may make it far more difficult for US President George W. Bush to look to the Afghan polls for a foreign policy success story before his own bid for re-election in November. The fact the fighting erupted in Herat was of particular concern. The city restored order more quickly than almost any other center in the country once the Taliban were driven from power at the end of 2001. Herat’s pre-Taleban master, veteran Mujahedeen commander and now governor, Ismail Khan, swiftly asserted his authority and, prior to Sunday, the city has been largely peaceful ever since. “This is supposed to be the safest place in the whole country,” Rashid said.
The fighting broke out after forces of Gen. Zahir Nayebzada, appointed by Karzai, killed Mirwais Sadiq, son of Ismail Khan. Sadiq was civil aviation minister and Khan’s only representative in Karzai’s Cabinet. Karzai now faces the unenviable task of reasserting his authority in Herat — a city vital to efforts to rebuild the economy since it controls the bulk of Afghanistan’s customs revenues — and placating the powerful and grieving Khan. Hundreds of government troops, helmeted and armed with AK-47 assault rifles, machine guns and rocket launchers arrived in Herat on Monday after been flown there from Kabul. Khan’s spokesman said the warlord had no problem with the presence of government troops.
Khan has been at odds with Karzai in the past for failing to give up tens of millions of dollars of customs revenues from Herat and last year was upset to be stripped of his post as the province’s military chief. “What happened in Herat shows preconditions for stability and voter registration obviously haven’t been met,” said Vikram Parekh of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank. “If anything it’s a wakeup call and shows things can really take an ugly turn during the elections unless there is improved security.”
Karzai and the United Nations have called repeatedly for an expansion of peacekeeping operations, but the appeals have fallen on deaf ears. He has also indicated it may be difficult to hold the polls as scheduled in June and talks of a possible delay until August. UN efforts to register an estimated 10.5 million voters have moved at a snail’s pace given the concerns about provincial security.
The fighting could not have come at a worse time for Karzai — just a week before he travels to Berlin to woo international donors whose support he needs for the long-term reconstruction vision his finance ministry estimates will cost $25 billion. “It’s going to be a hard sell to donors,” said Parekh. “Herat is vital to what is a trade-based economy and it’s obviously going to raise questions about how capable the government is of dealing with regional forces.”
