How US-Iran proxy wars are keeping the Middle East on edge

Special How US-Iran proxy wars are keeping the Middle East on edge
US forces face increased threat in Syria as a shadow war between Israel and IRGC takes its toll on proxy warriors. (AFP)
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Updated 24 February 2024
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How US-Iran proxy wars are keeping the Middle East on edge

How US-Iran proxy wars are keeping the Middle East on edge
  • Experts see militias backed by Iran as nothing more than “expendable pawns” in a chess game
  • Tehran strenuously denies any connection with the mainly Shiite militias

DUBAI: Iran and the US are engaged in outright proxy warfare, the effects of which are playing out across the Middle East region. Although neither side appears to be looking for a direct confrontation, vulnerable Arab countries with split political loyalties are paying the biggest price.

That seems to be the consensus view of Middle East experts as low-intensity wars rage on in several parts of the region in addition to the full-on Gaza conflict.

Since Oct. 7 last year, Iran-backed militias have mounted more than 170 attacks on US military bases and assets in Syria, Iraq and Jordan in response to US support for Israel in the Israel-Hamas war, prompting American retaliation.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have launched repeated attacks on commercial and military shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, likewise prompting retaliatory strikes by the US and UK on militia targets.

While analysts believe the US and Iran are unlikely to become embroiled in a direct conflict, attacks by Iranian proxies are expected to occur for as long as Israel’s military campaign in Gaza continues.

Some experts think Iran is acutely aware of the Biden administration’s fear of a regional escalation and has sought to exploit this fact as a means of influencing the course of the war in Gaza.

Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, believes Iran is trying “to instrumentalize that fear by directly ordering, indirectly encouraging, or acquiescing to proxy attacks against Israel, the US, and international shipping.”




This photo released by the Houthi Media Center shows the Iran-backed Houthi forces boarding the cargo ship Galaxy Leader on Nov. 19, 2023, in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. (Handout via AP)

In this way, Iran “hopes a terrified Biden administration will increase pressure on Israel to end the war before total destruction of Hamas,” he told Arab News.

However, this proxy war is playing out on the sovereign territories of Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and Yemen — all nations that can ill afford to be swept up in a regional conflict. Some commentators say Arab lives in these countries are being treated as expendable.

“I think the attacks signal bloody bargaining between America and Israel on one side and Iran on the other,” Eyad Abu Shakra, a journalist at Asharq Al-Awsat, told Arab News.




US soldiers patrol the town of al-Qahtaniyah in Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province near the Turkish border. (AFP/File)

“I don’t think there is any ‘war of survival’ or a ‘war of elimination’ between the two camps, the Israeli-American camp and the Iranian camp. They are bargaining, as if in a bazaar, but with blood. The Iranians are fighting the Americans with Arab lives and vice versa.”

This bargaining, as it were, has the potential to get out of hand, however.

On Jan. 28, US forces stationed at Tower 22, a remote installation in Jordan, close to the Syrian and Iraqi borders, came under drone attack, leaving three US soldiers dead and 34 wounded.

US President Joe Biden said the drone attack was launched from Iraq by an Iran-backed militia. He vowed to retaliate at a time and in a manner of America’s choosing.

On Feb. 3, the US military launched an air assault on 85 targets at seven locations across Iraq and Syria including command and control headquarters and weapon storage sites used by Iran-backed militias and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

This was followed on Feb. 7 by a drone attack on eastern Baghdad that killed Abu Baqir Al-Saadi, commander of Kataib Hezbollah, the Iraqi militia that Washington had deemed responsible for the attack on US troops in Jordan.

Iran of course denies links to any militias in the Middle East. For instance, in a Jan. 29 letter to the UN Security Council, Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran’s ambassador to the UN, said: “There is no group affiliated with the Islamic Republic or Iran’s armed forces, whether in Iraq, Syria, or elsewhere that operates directly or indirectly under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran or acts on its behalf.

“Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not responsible for the actions of any individual or group within the region.”




Iran denies links to any militias in the Middle East. But to fighters and supporters of Lebanon's Hezbollah, there is no hiding what is obvious. (AFP/File photo)

Some Republican lawmakers had exhorted the administration to authorize a direct strike against Iran, even if it risked sparking a wider escalation. Others accused Biden of responding too slowly and giving the enemy too much forewarning.

Wary about being dragged into another potentially open-ended Middle East war, especially during an election year, Biden has appeared keen to limit the scope of America’s retaliation.

“The Biden administration partially called the Islamic Republic’s bluff by harshly reacting to the killing of three American servicemen and women in Jordan, but publicly signaled that it would not target Iranian territory,” said Alfoneh.

“Retaliating for the loss of American life was a correct response, but the US would perhaps be better off keeping the Islamic Republic guessing about America’s retaliation, which may include Iranian territory in the future.”




US President Joe Biden has warned Iran to rein in its proxy militias or face American retaliation. (AFP/File)

Iran is likewise mindful of the potential blowback from its activities. But by operating through its network of proxies throughout the region, Tehran feels it can deny any involvement in attacks on Israel or US targets while reaping the benefits.

“After 1979, when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared the export of the Islamic revolution, Iranians formed the IRGC,” said Abu Shakra.

“It was almost an open secret that they would fight their wars of negotiations with the Americans and Israelis in Arab cities rather than fight them in Iran’s cities.

“They eventually took over Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and Sanaa, and now they are negotiating with the Americans and the Israelis through massacres, in which the Arabs are paying the price, not the Iranians.”




Hossein Salami, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. (AFP)

Nevertheless, according to analysts, Iran has sometimes overplayed its hand, leading to a more aggressive US response, as was the case when the administration of former President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Jan. 2020, allegedly to stave off a planned attack on US forces in Iraq.

“They are reminded of the accepted bargaining limits,” said Abu Shakra. “The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, for example, was such a reminder and a big hit. Both America and Iran are still respecting ‘the rules of engagement.’”

The latest US retaliation does appear to have had an impact. On Feb. 12, the Pentagon announced there had been 186 US casualties in Iraq, Syria and Jordan since Oct. 18. A day later, on Feb. 13, it declared there had been no further attacks on US forces.




The killing of major general Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, by US forces in early 2020 has served notice to Iran's authorities that it does not pay to overplay their hands. (Tasnim News photo via AFP/File)

Washington is also likely in no hurry to attack Iran directly because the survival of the Islamic Republic has other uses. “It’s important to note that Iran is a sizable player whom the West can ‘use’ in any role,” said Abu Shakra.

“Whether Washington admits it or not, Iran is a very important bulwark against the rise of Sunni militant Islam. Iran is also a potential counterbalance against a nuclear Pakistan. Iran is an important bulwark against the expansion of the Chinese in the Gulf.

“No one has the strategic interest of destroying Iran. Neither America, nor Russia, nor India can ignore the role or influence of Iran.”

Critics of the Biden administration say its hesitance about a direct confrontation with Iran was demonstrated by its response to the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, including efforts through media leaks to play down an Iranian link and prevent a regional escalation.

INNUMBERS

269 People killed in Lebanon since violence erupted in October 2023.

40 Civilians are believed to be among the dead in Lebanon.

16 Israeli nationals were killed in the north, including 6 civilians.


When Israel began its retaliatory campaign in Gaza, the US said there was no proof that Iran was behind the Oct. 7 attack, said Abu Shakra. Then, within a week or two, the US said it did not want the conflict to spread.

“They wanted it to be limited,” he said. “The Americans did not want any involvement with the Iranian militias in Lebanon and Iraq. I think unless the Iranians overplay their cards and become too arrogant, the current fighting will remain limited to Iran’s Arab appendages.

“I think neither the US nor Israel nor the pro-Tehran Iraqi regime or Iran itself has any real interest in direct confrontation, which would be apocalyptic if it were to happen.”




Iran has little to gain from a direct conflict with the US and so it outsources its activities to proxies to tilt regional affairs in its favor.. (AFP/File)

Likewise, Alfoneh believes Iran has little to gain from a direct conflict with the US. Instead, it can outsource its activities to proxies to tilt regional affairs in its favor.

“The Islamic Republic achieved all of its objectives on Oct. 7,” said Alfoneh. “Hamas’ terrorist incursion into Israel shattered the myth of Israel’s invulnerability.

“Iran got even with Israel, which for years has bombed Iranian and allied positions in Syria, and even engaged in operations on Iranian soil, and the attack sabotaged diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.”




The fate of Hamas and Palestinian civilians is of no interest to Iran, which perceives them as expendable pawns, says Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. (AFP photo)

The interests of the Palestinians, and indeed the populations of the wider Arab region caught in the crossfire, are thereby secondary to these geopolitical goals.

“The fate of Hamas and Palestinian civilians is of no interest to the Islamic Republic, which perceives them as expendable pawns in a grander chess game in the region,” said Alfoneh.

“Therefore, the Islamic Republic is not interested in spreading the war in Gaza, which may directly entangle Iran in a war with Israel and, possibly, with the US.”

 


Hope turns to regret among Syrians returning home from Turkiye

Hope turns to regret among Syrians returning home from Turkiye
Updated 05 February 2025
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Hope turns to regret among Syrians returning home from Turkiye

Hope turns to regret among Syrians returning home from Turkiye
  • More than 80,000 have gone back to Syria since Assad’s fall
  • Those who returned in December lost right to re-enter Turkiye

ALEPPO: Ahmed Al-Sheikh’s excitement at returning to his homeland from neighboring Turkiye after the fall of Bashar Assad has turned to bitter disappointment at the grim living conditions in Syria after some 13 years of war.
Sheikh is one of 35,000 Syrians who left Turkiye for Syria full of hope in the first three weeks after Assad was toppled on Dec. 8, giving up the right to come back to Turkiye after signing a voluntary return document.
Turkiye’s refugee association says many, like him, are now disillusioned by the reality of life in a war-ravaged country.
“I was shocked by the catastrophic situation, which was beyond my expectations,” said Sheikh, 35, speaking in his home after returning to Aleppo, eight years after he fled to Turkiye. He said that water and electricity are frequently cut off and Internet communication is almost non-existent.
Migrant returns are a key element of burgeoning ties between Syria and NATO-member Turkiye, which is emerging as a power broker able to wield influence economically and diplomatically. Syria’s transitional President Ahmed Al-Sharaa visited Ankara on Tuesday, discussing an expected rapid expansion of economic ties.
The presence of nearly 3 million Syrians in Turkiye has become a sensitive political issue. Many have faced bouts of anti-migrant sentiment that made them feel like unwanted guests, and some rushed to the border after rebels forced Assad out.
“Most of the refugees were initially excited about returning after the fall of the Assad regime, but this excitement faded over time,” said Kadri Gungorur, social welfare director of the Refugees Association in Turkiye, citing complaints such as the lack of education and health services.
“Some families feel regret and want to return,” he said. “When they compare the living conditions in Turkiye with Syria, we can accept that Turkiye offers them more opportunities.”

BID TO SUPPORT VOLUNTARY RETURNS
Sheikh was among those enthused by the rebels’ victory, dreaming of rebuilding his bombed Aleppo home. He vowed to go back as soon as Assad fell, despite friends’ efforts to dissuade him. Now he is dismayed by the comparatively poor living conditions and scarcity of job and education opportunities.
“I started thinking about returning to Turkiye because my life was stable there, and my children were in school. My living conditions were stable,” he said. “But I can’t go back now because I signed a voluntary return document.”
Due to such negative experiences, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced at the end of 2024 a scheme designed to enable migrants to better plan their return home.
The scheme entitles the heads of Syrian migrant families to visit Syria three times between January and June this year, according to an Interior Ministry document.
Between Assad’s fall and late January, 81,576 Syrians had entered Syria, indicating a slight fall in the daily rate of returns from December to some 1,600 a day, Yerlikaya said. It was unclear how many of those returning in January had signed the voluntary return document.
During a visit to Turkiye last week, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi expressed support for Turkiye’s refugee response and voluntary returns.
He praised the policy of what he called “go-and-see visits,” saying they were “a best practice, as it allows refugees to assess conditions for themselves and can pave the way for sustainable returns to Syria.”
’PERHAPS IN THE FUTURE’
Some Syrians are more inclined to wait and see.
Syrian chemist Jafer, 27, came to Turkiye 12 years ago and will not consider returning with his wife and three children until conditions improve.
“My children are currently well-adjusted in Turkiye, which makes staying here more likely since they have adapted to life, language, and education in Turkiye,” he said.
“Some people will return, but the lack of basic necessities prevents them from doing so. They think about returning, but not now, perhaps in the future.”
It is an option no longer open to Sheikh.
He was forced out of Aleppo in late 2016 when Assad forces, with the support of Russian air strikes, seized control of the eastern part of the city from rebels. He went on to build a stable life for his wife and four children in Turkiye.
He has opened a mobile phone repair shop in Aleppo, but his plan to fix his house there is on hold.
“I don’t know if the project will succeed here in the country or if it will fail. If it fails, I will have lost everything I earned during my time in Turkiye.”


Saudi Arabia says no to displacement of Gazans, rejects relations with Israel without Palestinian state

Saudi Arabia says no to displacement of Gazans, rejects relations with Israel without Palestinian state
Updated 05 February 2025
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Saudi Arabia says no to displacement of Gazans, rejects relations with Israel without Palestinian state

Saudi Arabia says no to displacement of Gazans, rejects relations with Israel without Palestinian state
  • Statement comes after President Trump hinted at US ownership of Gaza after Palestinian displacement
  • Trump insists Egypt and Jordan will have to take the displaced Gazans, with both states rejecting the idea

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Wednesday said its long-held position that Palestinians must have their own independent state was firm and not open to negotiation, a stance Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has reiterated many times before.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry statement came shortly after President Donald Trump said he wants the US to own the Gaza Strip after all Palestinians are displaced from there and sent to other countries, where settlements will be constructed for them.

The Kingdom’s position has been a longstanding one with its leaders repeatedly calling for justice for Palestinians, who they say deserve a state of their own alongside Israel as a way to find a lasting solution to the decades long conflict.

Saudi leaders have repeatedly said any formal relations between the Kingdom and Israel hinge on the creation of a viable Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.

The ministry statement highlighted a speech by the crown prince at the Shoura Council on September 18, 2024, where he stressed that Saudi Arabia will continue its tireless work toward the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, adding the Kingdom will not normalize ties with Israel without it.

The crown prince expressed a similar sentiment during the extraordinary Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh on Nov. 11, 2024, where he stressed the continuation of efforts to establish a Palestinian state and demanded an end to Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.

He also urged more countries to recognize the State of Palestine, stressing the importance of mobilizing the international community to support the rights of Palestinians, which were expressed in the resolutions of the UN General Assembly by considering Palestine eligible for full membership of the world body.

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia also stresses its previously announced categorical rejection of any violation of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, whether through Israeli settlement policies, annexation of Palestinian territories, or attempts to displace the Palestinian people from their land,” the statement added.

Trump, standing next to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday, said the Palestinians would be better off living outside of Gaza which has been bombed to rubble during Israel’s brutal 15-month attack.

“I don’t think people should be going back,” Trump said. “You can’t live in Gaza right now. I think we need another location. I think it should be a location that’s going to make people happy.”

The president insists Egypt and Jordan would have to take the Gazans he plans to displace. Both countries have rejected the idea outright.

Trump also did not rule out the use of American troops to help reconstruct the enclave and ensure the ownership of the territory, which he said could become the “Riviera of the Middle East,” given its temperate climate and prime location on the Mediterranean coast.

The Kingdom said that it’s the international community’s duty to work to alleviate the severe human suffering of the Palestinian people, who will remain in their land.

“Lasting and just peace cannot be achieved without the Palestinian people obtaining their legitimate rights in accordance with international legitimacy resolutions, and this is what was previously explained to the previous and current American administrations,” the ministry statement said.


Hamas ready for talks with Trump administration, Hamas official tells RIA

Mousa Abu Marzouk, senior Hamas Politburo member. (Wikipedia)
Mousa Abu Marzouk, senior Hamas Politburo member. (Wikipedia)
Updated 05 February 2025
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Hamas ready for talks with Trump administration, Hamas official tells RIA

Mousa Abu Marzouk, senior Hamas Politburo member. (Wikipedia)
  • Trump vowed on Tuesday that the US would take over the war-shattered Gaza Strip after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere and develop it economically, a move that would shatter decades of US policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

GAZA CITY: The Palestinian Hamas movement is ready to establish contact and hold talks with the administration of US President Donald Trump, Russia’s RIA state news agency cited a senior Hamas official as saying in remarks published early on Wednesday.
“We are ready for contact and talks with the Trump administration,” RIA cited senior Hamas Politburo member Mousa Abu Marzouk as saying.
“In the past, we did not object to contacts with the administration of (former US President Joe) Biden, Trump or any other US administration, and we are open to talks with all international parties.”
It was not clear when RIA interviewed Marzouk, who was visiting Moscow on Monday for talks with the Russian foreign ministry.
Trump vowed on Tuesday that the US would take over the war-shattered Gaza Strip after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere and develop it economically, a move that would shatter decades of US policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Marzouk told RIA that talks with the US have become a kind of necessity for Hamas, considering that Washington is a key player in the Middle East.
“That is why we welcomed the talks with the Americans and have no objection to this issue,” he added.

 


Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights

Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights
Updated 05 February 2025
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Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights

Iraq’s top court suspends new legislation that activists say undermines women’s rights
  • Women’s rights advocates argue that the changes undermine previous reforms that created a unified family law and established safeguards for women
  • Proponents of the amendments, which were advocated by primarily conservative Shiite lawmakers, defend them as a means to align the law with Islamic principles and reduce Western influence on Iraqi culture

BAGHDAD: Iraq’s top court suspended implementation Tuesday of three controversial bills passed last month by the country’s parliament, including a measure that activists said undermines women’s rights.
A number of members of parliament filed a complaint alleging that the voting process was illegal because all three bills — each supported by different blocs — were voted on last month together rather than each one being voted on separately. The Federal Supreme Court issued an order, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, to suspend their implementation until the case is adjudicated.
The measures include an amendment to the country’s personal status law to give Islamic courts increased authority over family matters, including marriage, divorce and inheritance.
Women’s rights advocates argue that the changes undermine previous reforms that created a unified family law and established safeguards for women. Proponents of the amendments, which were advocated by primarily conservative Shiite lawmakers, defend them as a means to align the law with Islamic principles and reduce Western influence on Iraqi culture.
Earlier versions of the measure were seen as potentially opening the door to child marriage since some interpretations of Islamic law allow the marriage of girls in their early teens — or as young as 9. The final version passed by the parliament states that both parties must be “adults,” without specifying the age of adulthood.
The second bill was for a general amnesty law seen as benefiting Sunni detainees. Some fear it could allow the release of people involved in public corruption and embezzlement as well as militants who committed war crimes.
The third bill aimed to return lands confiscated from the Kurds under the rule of Saddam Hussein. It is opposed by some Arab groups, saying it could lead to the displacement of Arab residents.

 


Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy

Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy
Updated 05 February 2025
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Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy

Leaders ‘should respect’ wishes of Palestinians to stay in Gaza: Palestinian UN envoy
  • For those who want to send them to a happy, nice place, let them go back to their original homes inside Israel, there are nice places there, and they will be happy to return to these places”

UNITED NATIONS, United States: World leaders and people should respect Palestinians’ desire to remain in Gaza, the Palestinian envoy to the United Nations said Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump said he believed people from the territory should be resettled elsewhere “permanently.”
“Our homeland is our homeland, if part of it is destroyed, the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian people selected the choice to return to it,” said Riyad Mansour. “And I think that leaders and people should respect the wishes of the Palestinian people.”
On Tuesday, Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, with the US leader saying he believed Palestinians should leave Gaza after an Israeli offensive that has devastated the territory and left most of it reduced to rubble.
Speaking ahead of the meeting, Trump said he wanted a solution that saw “a beautiful area to resettle people permanently in nice homes where they can be happy.”
At the United Nations, Mansour did not name Trump but appeared to reject the US president’s proposal.
“Our country and our home is” the Gaza Strip, “it’s part of Palestine,” he said. “We have no home. For those who want to send them to a happy, nice place, let them go back to their original homes inside Israel, there are nice places there, and they will be happy to return to these places.”
The war in Gaza erupted after Palestinian armed group Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, which resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory response has killed at least 47,518 people in Gaza, the majority civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The UN considers these figures as reliable.
The UN says more than 1.9 million people — or 90 percent of Gaza’s population — have been displaced by Israel’s offensive, with the bombing campaign having leveled most structures in the territory, including schools, hospitals and basic civil infrastructure.
The start of a ceasefire deal, which included the release of hostages held by Hamas and prisoners held by Israel, on January 19 saw Palestinians rejoice, with many returning to homes that no longer stood.
“In two days, in a span of a few hours, 400,000 Palestinians walking returned to the northern part of the Gaza Strip,” said UN envoy Mansour.
“I think that we should be respecting the selections and the wishes of the Palestinian people, and the Palestinian people at the end will make the determination, their determination.”