NEW DELHI, 24 April 2004 — A fresh survey revealed yesterday that the Hindu fundamentalist-led ruling coalition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may struggle to retain its majority in Parliament despite earlier projections it would win this month’s election easily.
But the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA was still best placed to form the government, analysts said.
The survey came ahead of the third round of voting on Monday which includes the giant heartland state of Uttar Pradesh and the disputed region of Kashmir, where separatist militants have stepped up attacks to enforce a boycott call.
Separatists say the election is no substitute for a resolution of conflict in the region.
New Delhi considers the election as another step toward bolstering the legitimacy of its rule in the Muslim majority territory.
The Indian Express-NDTV poll, conducted halfway through the three-week election, said Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s alliance could win anything between 255 and 275 seats in the 545-member lower house of Parliament. The coalition won 306 seats in the last election in 1999, comfortably higher than the 273 required to rule. Last month, opinion polls were predicting it would win more than 300 seats.
Polls have a mixed record in the world’s largest democracy with voter patterns varying sharply in different constituencies. About 670 million people are eligible to vote in this election and the results will be known only on May 13.
The latest poll said Vajpayee’s regional partners in the south and east had lost ground and his own BJP had failed to improve its showing in the key heartland state of Uttar Pradesh.
The opposition Congress led by Sonia Gandhi, the torchbearer of the celebrated Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, picked up momentum after a listless start, but was still far behind the ruling coalition, the Indian Express-NDTV poll said.
But a BJP spokesman shrugged off the new poll and said the party’s own assessment showed a comfortable victory for the ruling alliance.
“We have done our own surveys with a much more representative sampling, and we see a surge in our favor,” said Prakash Javdekar. “There is nothing for me to worry (about).”
Most surveys in the run-up to the election forecast an easy victory for the BJP-led coalition campaigning on a feel-good platform of strong economic growth and peace with Pakistan.
“The battle now is really on and the alliance needs to do really well in the next two rounds of polling to cross the halfway mark,” the Indian Express newspaper said of the poll conducted by A.C. Nielsen.
The Express said the findings were based on a combination of an exit poll carried out after the first day of voting on Tuesday and opinion polls for subsequent phases of voting. Analysts say the BJP-led coalition will still be the best-placed to form a government by attracting smaller parties to its fold but would face pressures from these parties, including on key reforms such as labor laws.
India’s financial markets which have soared in the past year on the back of reforms and strong economic growth are banking on a convincing win for the BJP-led coalition to push through reforms more aggressively.
