CALCUTTA, 3 May 2004 — Assam, which accounts for the majority of Lok Sabha seats in the far-flung northeastern region, is a crucial state for the Congress party trying to wrest power from the Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party.
Congress bagged 10 seats out of Assam’s 14 in successive parliamentary elections in 1998 and 1999. While Karnataka elected 18 Congress MPs in 1999, Maharashtra and Assam elected 10 each.
Significantly, Congress bagged 71.42 percent of seats in Assam, while its share was 64.28 percent in Karnataka and only 20.83 in Maharashtra.
But this time the BJP has trained its guns on Assam to capture as many seats as possible. The party contesting 12 seats is using every trick in the book to turn the tables on Congress.
The other major contender in Assam is the regional Asom Gano Parishad. But factionalism and bitter turf wars are marring its electoral prospects. Its biggest strength is the support of All Assam Students’ Union which spearheaded the so-called anti-foreigners’ agitation in the early 1980s.
Historically, Congress is a clear favorite. Out of 124 Lok Sabha MPs elected from Assam since 1952, as many as 101 belonged to Congress, 12 to the AGP, six to Praja Socialist Party and five to the BJP.
Congress did surprisingly well in general elections even when Assam was ruled by the regional outfit, AGP, for two terms baffling analysts and political commentators alike.
Five years ago, Congress polled 38.42 percent of votes but won 10 seats. The BJP polled 29.84 percent and won only two, including the prestigious Guwahati parliamentary seat. It is determined to win at least four more seats this time.
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, addressing a rally in Guwahati on the BJP’s raising day, declared that his party had a two-fold agenda in Congress-ruled Assam: winning Lok Sabha seats and trouncing Congress in the 2006 provincial elections.
The premier campaigned for Bhupen Hazarika, the famous singer fielded by the BJP in Guwahati to take on the AGP’s ex-Home Minister Bhrigu Phukan in a three-cornered contest.
Sonia Gandhi also addressed several rallies across Assam to reassure Muslims who comprise the party’s traditional vote bank in the frontier state.
Significantly, the BJP kicked off its poll campaign way back in June 2003 when party President Venkiah Naidu spent several days in Assam to finalize the BJP’s election strategy.
Since then, Praveen Togadia and RSS chief Sudarshan have sent considerable time in Assam. And of late, besides Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, film stars, including Hema Malini, have been canvassing support for BJP candidates. The BJP claims that its hard work has paid off and it is confident of wresting Dhubri, Karimganj, Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh from Congress.
But the banned United Liberation Front of Assam is still a force to reckon with in the remote region. ULFA opposes elections. It favors a referendum to decide Assam’s sovereignty.
Dismissing general elections as a ‘stunt’, ULFA Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa said that if the Indian government really believes in democracy it should hold a referendum to find out whether the Assamese want an independent country or prefer to live in India.
