WASHINGTON, 23 May 2004 — The painful irony in Iraq is that while there is an emerging, if delayed, understanding by the Bush administration about what needs to be done there, it could be that it’s too late for those steps to be taken.
Having been shaken out of its unilateralist convictions by the specter of failure in Iraq and rejection at home, the Bush administration is now ready to hand over authority to the United Nations to run Iraq, eager to bring allied forces into the effort to provide security and determined to train Iraqis to handle police and internal security matters.
But it’s far from clear whether the United Nations wants to assume responsibility for the mess that has been created there or, more to the point, whether it’s capable of doing the job. And the prerequisite for a political solution — security inside Iraq — does not seem to be attainable, not with only 135,000 troops in the country.
The key date in the future is not the turnover of sovereignty to Iraq on June 30 — a mainly symbolic act — but holding elections for an interim Iraqi assembly by December or January. That would be the key to legitimacy for a new government. But without security elections will not be feasible.
All parties, including the Pentagon, now agree that internationalizing the security force is necessary. The American troops have become targets. And the timetable for training Iraqis is unrealistic.
Is there anything that President Bush can do now to improve the chances of success? It’s not enough to keep saying he is going to ‘’stay the course.” That’s empty rhetoric. He needs to initiate a full-scale diplomatic effort to change the views of European and Arab governments. That might start with a summit conference with the leading European nations.
And, even before that, he needs to go to the American people to explain in detail what his plan for Iraq is and why he believes he can make it work despite all that is going wrong now. The platitudes about bringing democracy to Iraq won’t be enough. A realistic goal must be articulated. Maybe he should address a joint session of Congress. He can’t do anything without support at home. His allies and enemies read the polls, too. Shaking up his national security team is also a necessary step. especially in an election year.
It’s possible that it’s too late to salvage anything good out of Iraq. But there are different degrees of failure. A failed state such as Afghanistan or Lebanon would just provide a new home for terrorists. If that is the end result of the war, the United States will be worse off than before.
That’s why Bush must try to salvage what he can from Iraq and leave behind a state that is relatively stable, if not a full-fledged democracy. At the moment, even that reduced goal is far from certain.
