A recent article in The Economist reports that a French polling institute deliberately falsified the results of an opinion poll for political reasons. The problem of measuring public opinion precisely is not limited to us Arabs. In 1970 US Gallup polls, only five percent of the total number of questions posed were related to American policy in Vietnam and only two questions out of 162 concerned racial affairs. The polls totally ignored the general trends of the time, letting political logic alter the supposedly scientific nature of such organizations.
On one hand the media, politicians and social scientists are unenthusiastic about public opinion estimates and the extent of their importance while on the other hand there is agreement on the necessity of opinion polls and the need to raise public awareness of issues that are to be polled. These outweigh dangers including the ease with which people with their own agenda — extremists among them — can hijack issues and prevent minority opinions from being heard.
Social scientists say that when an individual believes that he has public backing, he will be encouraged to repeat his convictions with that in mind, while those who disagree are likely to retreat into silence for fear of being seen to be in the minority. Some may take advantage of this to confuse the rest of society. Individuals’ fear of social ostracism or being accused of ignorance of current issues will often force them to acquiesce to the dominant group’s opinion. This makes it extremely difficult to gauge the extent of an individual’s real beliefs.
Yet despite these criticisms, the reality is that Western countries base their economic and political planning on opinion polls and surveys. They often employ their own pollsters. Here, in order to openly or secretly measure public opinion in our country, conferences are convened and conventions publish their results. If they surprise us or their interests override ours, then we dismiss them or consider them conspiracies. But we should admit that as long as we don’t have institutions that carry out surveys and make realistic plans, and so long as our regimes keep banning research and free expression of opinion, we will never raise the level of political awareness and the danger of brainwashing will remain. That the US is interested in trends in our region is a reality. By contrast, our own governments’ lack of interest in what citizens think, coupled with the efforts of a few plotting to turn public opinion against the current regimes, is dangerous and must change.
The absence in Arab countries of a public opinion database, and the fact that journalists in the region are too often closely associated with the government which directly or indirectly employs them, do little to engender confidence in the surveys and statistics they publish. Decisions are often miles away from what the people want and need. After decades of this, it is no wonder that people here no longer feel that their opinions matter and have become demoralized.
Given the trouble we are in, it is imperative that the ruling elites here learn to listen to public opinion. That is the only way we can maintain stability. Our leadership is also going to have to accustom people to participating and offering opinions. This must be done through credible, transparent institutions that are untainted by the interests of whoever funds them. The source of funding is important as it determines subjects and sample size, the nature and extent of the questions and who asks them — all of which naturally affect the objectivity and reliability of results.
We must support Arab pollsters with funding and technology that enables them to measure public opinion with speed and precision and then relay the results to the decision-makers themselves. They must be able to fashion indigenous theoretical models for the exercise — our economic, historical and cultural situation is not analogous to that of the West.
(Suraya Al-Shehry is a Saudi writer. She is based in Riyadh.)
