In stark contrast to his struggling counterpart in the White House, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is firmly in control, both of his country and his political opponents. Since the former KGB officer was propelled into the spotlight in 1999, Putin’s policies have been based on careful measurement. The single exception was the renewed assault in Chechnya, but this was one of his very first acts on gaining power, comparable to George W. Bush’s repudiation of the Kyoto Agreement on climate control within days of taking office.
Unlike Bush, however, Putin has made few other mistakes. Even the Chechen conflict, though extending the misery of the Chechen people, remains popular with most Russians, serving as it does to reinforce Putin’s reputation for toughness. Though it is a conflict that Russia cannot win, it is useful because it keeps the military busy and gives the country a cadre of battle-hardened troops.
On the world stage, Putin has achieved much by carefully doing little. Russia too held back from ratifying Kyoto, thus suspending the implementation of the protocol, but did not share the criticism that was showered on Bush. With impeccable timing, Putin has now promised to back Kyoto in return for an undertaking from the EU that it will support Russia’s application to join the World Trade Organization. For Russia this is a win-win deal.
In his state-of-the-nation address last week, Putin announced he wanted to double the size of the Russian economy within six years. That is a difficult goal. Unlike China, Russia faces considerable cultural and structural challenges to accelerate its growth so dramatically. Nevertheless Putin’s now undisputed authority means he has the power to create the right economic environment, if the Russians themselves will but seize the opportunities.
His humbling of the superrich oligarchs who profited from the shabby privatizations of the Yeltsin years is epitomized by the trial which began yesterday of Mikhail Khordorkovsky, the richest of them all. The former boss of oil giant Yukos was arrested on fraud and tax evasion charges after he sought to use his wealth to challenge Putin politically. Foreign investors whose funds are crucial to Russian economic growth have not apparently been deterred by the Khordorkovsky affair. American and EU opinion has not been stirred to protest by the quiet but virtually total control that the Kremlin now exercises over press and media. Moscow meanwhile benefits from its consistent though never strident opposition to the US invasion of Iraq. And the Americans themselves still court Russian cooperation in the war on terror, most recently with this week’s $100 million deal to recover highly enriched uranium from Soviet-era reactors. In contrast to George W. Bush, Vladimir Putin, it seems, cannot put a foot wrong.
