THE fast pace of events unfolding in the Gaza Strip appears likely to result in a prolonged period of political instability.
This appears inevitable in the wake of the resignation submitted by Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei. Yasser Arafat has yet to accept Qorei’s resignation, precipitated by the kidnapping of a senior police chief and four French aid workers, whose abductors were protesting against what they said was corruption within the Palestinian Authority and the lack of reforms of security services. They were all released but the abductions signaled a breakdown in authority. Arafat responded by overhauling the PA’s security apparatus, but his appointment of a relative, Moussa Arafat, to a high-level security position sparked riots by hundreds in the Gaza Strip.
No matter which way Arafat turns, a crisis awaits. Arafat’s security shake-up, which included a series of steps meant to combine eight disparate security services in three more unified commands, but all under Arafat, has not appeared to mollify demonstrators in Gaza. Indeed, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades have threatened to take the law into their own hands. The realignment has certainly yet to change the mind of Qorei who wants to leave because Arafat had failed to grant him more powers to deal with the worsening security situation.
If Qorei leaves, Arafat will be forced to set up an entirely new Cabinet; if he manages to persuade Qorei to stay on, it will be only on condition that the premier is given more authority.
Losing Qorei would also be a blow to the peace process. Both he and his predecessor Mahmoud Abbas were major negotiators of the 1993 Oslo Accords, though in the 10 months Qorei held the job not a single Palestinian-Israeli summit was held. This was not in any way a reflection on Qorei but on Ariel Sharon who sees the breakdown in Gaza as evidence that he has no partner to talk to within the Palestinian camp and must move ahead with his plans to withdraw from Gaza by next year. The chaotic turn of events will likely encourage Sharon’s opponents not to leave a vacuum in Gaza.
There are a few ironies appearing as this crisis unfolds. Arafat’s overhaul has been a key demand of the United States and Israel to restart peace negotiations, moribund ever since the road map was introduced over a year ago. Yet it could also begin a process which might lead not to peace but to an all-out Palestinian civil war.
There is another iron too: Having sought for over half-a-century Israel’s withdrawal from occupied Palestinian lands, an obstacle has arisen which might prevent precisely such a handover. As the lawlessness increases, as splinter groups and rival factions jockey for power before Israeli troops and settlers withdraw from Gaza, the breakdown in law and order in Gaza could be but a taste of what will happen if Israel leaves altogether, an unexpected topsy-turvy situation.
