Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

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Updated 30 June 2024
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Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate
  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad shares his assessment of, and key takeaways from, recent Biden-Trump debate
  • Describes how the Gaza war might impact US election outcome, offers three scenarios for a Hezbollah-Israel full-scale war

DUBAI: If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November.

Indeed, in the first televised head to head of the US election campaign, Biden reiterated his commitment to siding with Israel in the war in Gaza and accused Hamas of resisting efforts to end the conflict.

For his part, Trump called Biden “a weak and a very bad Palestinian” — using the name of the national group as a slur — and argued that Israel should be given a free hand to finish the job in Gaza.

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance.

“This is American electioneering at its worst,” Maksad said during an appearance on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking.” “We all know that American elections tend to be the silly season.

“Candidates will say anything to get elected pretty much, only to turn around and change their position, or at least adjust their position, and in favor of a more nuanced one once they are in fact in the Oval Office. So, I think much of what was said (ought to be taken) with a grain of salt.”




Appearing on “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., said the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

Maksad said it was “quite shameful” for Trump to use the term Palestinian in a “derogatory” way in a bid to undermine Biden by painting him as being relatively pro-Palestinian. “This, while both candidates were falling over themselves to demonstrate their support for Israel.”

Maksad, who is also the Middle East Institute’s senior director for strategic outreach, believes the style and tone of the debate is “just the reality of American electoral dynamics” and should not be considered a concrete policy position of either candidate.

“We can take our pick in terms of examples in the past where candidates have said one thing about nations in the Middle East, only to reverse course and even visit these countries once they become elected president,” he said.

One point that commentators were united on following the election debate was how poorly Biden performed — struggling to express his ideas clearly, fumbling over his words, and pausing for long periods, raising fresh doubts about his cognitive ability.

Although Trump is also prone to meandering speeches, commentators agreed the Republican nominee delivered a more concise and agile performance than the Democratic incumbent.

“I think it’s safe to say that most Americans were shell-shocked by the debate that they saw,” Maksad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“Going into this, the Democratic Party objective was to make this, first and foremost, about (Trump’s legal woes) rather than on the cognitive ability, or lack thereof, of President Biden.

“I think what we clearly saw was the Trump campaign had a great night, a celebratory night, whereas most of the Democratic operatives, fundraisers, and supporters of the president are left scrambling, wondering whether it’s too late in the game to try and draft in another last-minute, 11th hour candidate.”

Although many commentators said Biden offered more substance in his remarks, his poor delivery appears to have cost him in the eyes of voters.

“I very much had that debate with close friends in the Democratic circle, some of whom had served in the White House, as this debate was ongoing, and they kept pointing out to that very point, which is listen to the substance. Our candidate has much more substance,” Maksad said.

“Trump, in fact, rambles and says very little in terms of substance, not much in terms of specific policy focus and policy options being put on the table here. I think that’s true. I take the point, but I do think that in elections and American elections, how you come across to a voter is equally, if not more, important.

“And it was abundantly apparent that (former) President Trump was the more capable, confident, powerful in his presence on stage in this debate.”

If those watching the debate were hoping to learn more about where the rivals stood on the big foreign policy questions of the day, they would have been sorely disappointed as Biden and Trump focused mainly on domestic issues.

There were, however, some minor indications of similarities and differences on Middle East policy.

“President Biden — very much in favor of diplomacy. Some might say even accommodating Iran in the region, its aspirations,” said Maksad. “President Trump — much more confrontational when it comes to Iran, looking to contain its influence in the region.

“But that’s not to say that there aren’t similarities, too. I think, when it comes to regional integration, a possible normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, you see a bipartisanship on these issues here in Washington, D.C.”

Gaza, meanwhile, has become a deeply polarizing issue in the US, even beyond the Arab and Muslim communities, with protests taking place on university campuses across the country.

Asked whether the war is likely to influence the outcome of the election, however, Maksad said it was low down on the list of priorities for the majority of US voters.




If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November. (AFP)

“I think it’s both unimportant but also very crucial,” he said. “If you take the laundry list of issues for most Americans that they care about, priorities, I don’t think Gaza features anywhere near the top.”

Since the conflict in Gaza began in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, there have been fears that the war would spill over into the wider region. Lebanon, in particular, is seen as being especially vulnerable following months of tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah.

Maksad, who is himself Lebanese and an expert on the nation’s troubled past, believes there are three likely scenarios, as all-out war appears increasingly inevitable.

“One is the current diplomatic efforts that are being spearheaded by Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s envoy on this issue, point person on this issue, who will be visiting areas and coordinating very closely with the French presidential envoy on this matter,” he said.

A diplomatic breakthrough of this kind would mean finding a way for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to step back from his position of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

“That might be through some Israeli withdrawal from the disputed points along the Blue Line, the border between Israel and Lebanon, northern Gaza being something to watch out for,” Maksad said.

“But if the diplomatic breakthrough that we’re all looking, and hoping, for in the coming weeks does not materialize, scenario two here is a limited war … limited to the deep populated areas of northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

“And the US and French diplomacy would then kick in to try and bring things back with the diplomatic track. And that could help dislodge the current stalemate.”

The “catastrophic scenario,” meanwhile, would be a situation that “starts out as an attempt at a limited conflict, a limited war in northern Israel and south Lebanon, very quickly expands to population centers like Beirut and Haifa and beyond that. And we see the 2006 scenario on steroids where Israel is flattening entire blocks of southern Beirut.”

The UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper recently suggested that Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut is being used by Hezbollah to store and smuggle weapons. Although Hezbollah has denied the allegation, there are fears Israel may use the claims as a justification to bomb the airport.

“I’m not too sure that Israel needs a justification to bomb Beirut International Airport,” said Maksad. “They have done so in the past. They’ve done so repeatedly. They’ve cratered the runways. They have done so as far back as the 1960s when the PLO was the major concern operating out of Lebanon.

“So, there’s a long track record there of Israel targeting Lebanese infrastructure. And I’m not too sure that this particular article in the Telegraph is what the Israelis are looking for.

“But that said, also given my Lebanese ancestry, I mean, I think every Lebanese knows that the airport is by and large under the influence and control of Hezbollah or Hezbollah’s allies.”

He added: “Whether in fact the Telegraph article is accurate in that it’s being used as a storage base for Hezbollah missiles is something that’s beyond my capability in terms of being able to assess that.”

Asked whether Hezbollah is likely to make good on Nasrallah’s threat to attack Cyprus — a country that could host Israeli jets should Israel launch an aerial campaign against Hezbollah — Maksad said he thought the comments were merely intended to signal the potential reach of Iran and its regional proxies in the event of war.

“There are multiple views as to why Hassan Nasrallah chose to include Cyprus in the list of threats he made in his recent speech,” he said.

“I do think that, first and foremost, he was thinking from a military perspective in terms of where Israel, and particularly the air force, might be able to operate from if Hezbollah rained missiles on Israeli airports in the north and hamstrings Israel’s ability to operate against it. And Cyprus is high on that list of alternatives for Israel.

“But I do think that he’s also sending a broader message … which is one about Hezbollah’s ability to intercept and contradict and complicate shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“And so through Hezbollah, you have Iran here very clearly signaling its ability to interdict and disrupt global commerce, not only in Hormuz, not only in Bab Al-Mandeb, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean, arguably as far south as Suez.”




Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

He added: “This is part of Iran signaling its ability now to project influence and power into the Mediterranean, into the Red Sea and certainly within the Arab and Persian Gulf.”

As turmoil rages in the Middle East at the very moment that the US is turning its attention inward to the looming election, doubts have been raised about the possibility of securing the hotly anticipated deal between the US and Saudi Arabia.

“I see very low prospects of the Saudi-US deal being able to move forward,” said Maksad. “In fact, it will continue to be tethered to an Israeli leg with a precondition of a viable, non-reversible pathway towards a Palestinian state.

“But the politics is simply not there on the Israeli side, but also on the Palestinian side. This is the proposition that is entirely devoid of reality on the Israeli and Palestinian side.

“That said, the deal itself, the bilateral aspects of this deal, are largely negotiated and done. Whether it relates to a defense treaty or civil nuclear cooperation or commerce and AI and cyber, those issues have all been successfully negotiated by both the US and by Riyadh.

“But the issue is that if you are seeking a treaty which requires congressional, mainly Senate ratification, it is difficult to see that being passed in the Senate short of normalization with Israel.

“And normalization with Israel, given the very clear Saudi preconditions on the Palestinian state, or a pathway to a Palestinian state, are simply not there.”

 

 

 


Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured

Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured
Updated 11 sec ago
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Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured

Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured
  • The crash happened in the city of Zagazig, the capital of Sharqiya province, the country’s railway authority said in a statement

CAIRO: Two passenger trains collided in Egypt’s Nile Delta on Saturday, killing at least three people, two of them children, authorities said.
The crash happened in the city of Zagazig, the capital of Sharqiya province, the country’s railway authority said in a statement. Egypt’s Health Ministry said the collision injured at least 40 others.
Train derailments and crashes are common in Egypt, where an aging railway system has also been plagued by mismanagement. In recent years, the government announced initiatives to improve its railways.
In 2018, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said some 250 billion Egyptian pounds, or $8.13 billion, would be needed to properly overhaul the North African country’s neglected rail network.
Video from the site of the crash showed a train car crumpled by the impact, surrounded by crowds. Men tried to lift the injured through the windows of a passenger car.
Last month, a train crashed into a truck crossing the train tracks in the Mediterranean province of Alexandria, killing two people.


Sudan’s Al-Fasher city hit by heavy fighting

Sudan’s Al-Fasher city hit by  heavy  fighting
Updated 10 min 5 sec ago
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Sudan’s Al-Fasher city hit by heavy fighting

Sudan’s Al-Fasher city hit by  heavy  fighting
  • Darfur has seen some of the war’s worst atrocities, and the RSF has besieged Al-Fasher since May

KHARTOUM: Heavy fighting on Saturday shook a Sudanese city besieged by Rapid Support Forces, witnesses said, as US researchers reported unprecedented and escalating combat in the North Darfur state capital.
Al-Fasher is one of five state capitals in Sudan’s western Darfur region and the only one not in the hands of the Rapid Support Forces, who have been battling the regular army since April 2023.
The UN says the war across much of Sudan has created the world’s largest displacement crisis, with millions uprooted, and has led to famine at a displacement camp near Al-Fasher.
Darfur has seen some of the war’s worst atrocities, and the RSF has besieged Al-Fasher since May.
“Neighborhoods are completely deserted, and all you can hear are explosions and missiles,” said Ibrahim Ishaq, 52.
“The central market area has become unliveable because of the intensity of the explosions,” said Ishaq, who fled westward from the city on Friday.
Witnesses reported army bombardment south and east of the city on Saturday and said they heard air-defense batteries firing.
The Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab said in a report on Friday that its analysis confirmed “unprecedented large-scale combat operations” in El-Fasher within the previous 10 days, “with significant escalation in the past 36 hours” involving both the army and the paramilitary forces.
It cited reports that describe “a major multidirectional RSF attack from the northern, eastern, and southern directions” on Thursday.
Darfur Gov. Mini Minawi said on Thursday on social media platform X that the army had repelled “a large attack” by the RSF.
The paramilitaries, however, said they seized military sites in Al-Fasher.
Using satellite imagery and other data, the Yale researchers said they found munition impacts “likely related to high-tempo aerial bombardment” from the regular army but said other structural damage resulted from “RSF bombardment” and combat activity by both sides.
Whatever the battle’s outcome, current fighting levels “are likely to reduce what is left of El-Fasher to rubble effectively,” the Yale study said.
The US special envoy for Sudan, Tom Perriello said on X: “We are extremely concerned about the RSF’s renewed attacks.”
He urged the RSF “to stop its assault.”
It was not immediately possible to determine the number of victims.
Sudan’s war has already killed tens of thousands of people, with some estimates as high as 150,000, according to Perriello.
In Khartoum on Saturday, around 800 km from Al-Fasher, witnesses reported heavy explosions and strikes to the city’s south.
Independent UN experts earlier this month appealed for the urgent deployment of an “impartial force” in Sudan for civilian protection.
Sudan’s foreign ministry, loyal to the army, rejected the idea.

 


Israel strikes northern Lebanon in sudden escalation

Israel strikes northern Lebanon in sudden escalation
Updated 48 min 47 sec ago
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Israel strikes northern Lebanon in sudden escalation

Israel strikes northern Lebanon in sudden escalation
  • Hostilities have reached new areas over the past 24 hours on both sides of the border

BEIRUT: Israeli warplanes targeted the Qasr-Hermel area in the far northeast of Lebanon on Saturday evening for the first time in weeks. No deaths were reported.
The warplanes hit the surroundings of the town of Hawsh Al-Sayyid Ali in Hermel, a border area between Lebanon and Syria. They also targeted the Sarein Plain in the Bekaa Valley, 21 km from the city of Baalbek.
Loud explosions were heard in most parts of Baalbek and central Bekaa, causing panic among residents.
Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcing that he “decided to expand the military operation against Hezbollah … on the border with Lebanon.”
Israel’s Channel 13 quoted him as saying: “We are in the process of a broad and powerful operation on the northern front, and the Israeli army is seeking a gradual escalation on the northern front with Lebanon.”
Hostilities have reached new areas over the past 24 hours on both sides of the border. In the evening, Israel targeted the Sarafand area north of the Litani Line, while Hezbollah targeted settlements in the Safed, Kiryat Shmona and Margaliot areas in northern Israel.
The Israeli military announced in the evening that “two drones launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon towards the Kiryat Shmona and Margaliot settlements exploded, and they fell north of Kiryat Shmona.”


US envoy set for Tel Aviv talks in push to avoid deeper conflict

US special envoy Amos Hochstein addresses the media after meeting with Lebanon's parliament speaker in Beirut on June 18, 2024.
US special envoy Amos Hochstein addresses the media after meeting with Lebanon's parliament speaker in Beirut on June 18, 2024.
Updated 14 September 2024
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US envoy set for Tel Aviv talks in push to avoid deeper conflict

US special envoy Amos Hochstein addresses the media after meeting with Lebanon's parliament speaker in Beirut on June 18, 2024.
  • Lebanese minister backs journalist in condemning Israel’s ‘psychological warfare’
  • Hezbollah targets northern Israel with rockets in response to strikes on residential areas

BEIRUT: US presidential envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Tel Aviv on Monday as the US pushes to stop violence along Israel’s border with Lebanon spiraling into a deeper conflict.

Hochstein is believed to be carrying a message from the US urging restraint, and calling on Israel to avoid any large-scale military action.

The Israeli government is due to meet on Sunday to discuss its response to the escalating conflict with Hezbollah, either through diplomatic efforts or a large-scale military operation.

The meeting comes amid growing internal pressure to facilitate the return of settlers who were forced to flee their homes in northern Israel about a year ago.

Hostilities continued as caretaker Information Minister Ziad Makari expressed his support for Lebanese journalist Amal Al-Khalil in condemning Israel’s “intellectual terrorism and psychological warfare.”

The minister called Al-Khalil, a correspondent for the pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar newspaper, after she received death threats from Israeli sources via her phone.

Hezbollah on Saturday rained dozens of rockets on northern Israel, mainly in the areas of Rosh Pinna and north of Lake Tiberias, and carried out attacks with assault drones.

The strikes were in response to attacks by the Israeli military on residential buildings in southern villages, especially Al-Ahmadiyya in Western Bekaa and Kafr Rumman in the Nabatieh area.

In successive statements, Hezbollah said it launched an assault drone attack on the headquarters of the 810th Hermon Brigade at the Ma’ale Golani barracks, and struck the 282nd Artillery and Precision Missile Brigade headquarters in Yiftah Elifleet, northwest of Lake Tiberias, with Katyusha rockets.

Sirens sounded in Avivim in the Western Galilee.

An Israeli army spokesperson said that 55 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward the Upper Galilee since early morning.

Israeli media reported that Hezbollah was expanding its range of fire, focusing on Safed, the Tiberias area, and Rosh Pinna.

Sirens were also heard in Safed, Ami’ad, and Dovev in Western Galilee, and Yiftah.

Large explosions rocked the Upper Galilee, and rockets were reported to have landed in the Kahal area, south of Safed.

Explosions were heard in the artillery bunkers in Zaoura in the Golan Heights after a rocket salvo was launched from Lebanon. Sirens sounded in several nearby settlements.

Hezbollah said that it hit the Northern Corps reserve headquarters, the Galilee Division reserve base, and its logistical depots in Ami’ad with dozens of Katyusha rockets.

The militant group also claimed to have destroyed an Israeli Merkava tank on the Roueissat Al-Alam-Zebdine road with a guided missile.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry said that an Israeli airstrike on a building in Kfar Rumman, in the Nabatieh region, on Friday left 13 people injured, with one person requiring hospital treatment.

Hezbollah mourned the loss of one of its members, Abbas Hamada, 34, from the town of Qammatiyah in Mount Lebanon.

The Israeli army carried out a series of airstrikes and artillery attacks on several border towns in the southern region.

A spokesperson for the Israeli army, Avichay Adraee, claimed that security forces targeted rocket launch sites that were used to stage attacks on Galilee in the morning and toward Upper Galilee late on Friday.

Adraee said that warplanes targeted a military building in Kfar Rumman, while Israeli artillery shelled areas in southern Lebanon.

Israeli reconnaissance aircraft and military drones continued to fly over the villages in the south, reaching the outskirts of the city of Tyre, while flares lit up the skies over border villages adjacent to the Blue Line in both the western and central sectors.

 


Hezbollah warns Israel against Lebanon border flare-up

Hezbollah warns Israel against Lebanon border flare-up
Updated 14 September 2024
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Hezbollah warns Israel against Lebanon border flare-up

Hezbollah warns Israel against Lebanon border flare-up
  • Naim Qassem, number two in the Iran-backed Lebanese group, was speaking after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel was determined to restore security to its northern front

BEIRUT: Hezbollah’s second-in-command warned on Saturday that an all-out war by Israel aimed at returning 100,000 displaced people to their homes in areas near the Lebanon border would displace “hundreds of thousands” more.
Naim Qassem, number two in the Iran-backed Lebanese group, was speaking after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel was determined to restore security to its northern front.
Gallant told Israeli troops last week that “we are preparing for anything that may happen in the north.”
In a speech in Beirut, Qassem said: “We have no intention of going to war, as we consider that this would not be useful.
“However, if Israel does unleash a war, we will face up to it — and there will be large losses on both sides,” he said.
“If they think such a war would allow the 100,000 displaced people to return home ... we issue this warning: prepare to deal with hundreds of thousands more displaced.”
Hezbollah has traded near-daily fire with Israeli forces in support of ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group’s October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza.
Thousands of people living in the border area of both countries have been displaced by the fighting.
The cross-border violence since early October has killed 623 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including at least 142 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, authorities have announced the deaths of at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians.
Qassem said on Saturday of those displaced in Israel: “It is impossible to bring them back, no matter the sacrifices made.
“So take your time and think about it before reaching a decision. We are prepared for any eventuality.”
In late August, Israel’s military said it had foiled a major assault by Hezbollah aimed at avenging a military commander killed by an Israeli air strike near Beirut.
Israel said it destroyed “thousands” of Hezbollah rocket launchers, while the Lebanese group insisted it had fired a drone and rocket barrage across the border.
It was perhaps the biggest exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah since the Gaza war began.
However, the violence has since eased, with analysts believing that both sides wish to avoid a wider regional flare-up.