Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

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Updated 30 June 2024
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Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate

Frankly Speaking: The Arab verdict on the US election debate
  • Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Firas Maksad shares his assessment of, and key takeaways from, recent Biden-Trump debate
  • Describes how the Gaza war might impact US election outcome, offers three scenarios for a Hezbollah-Israel full-scale war

DUBAI: If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November.

Indeed, in the first televised head to head of the US election campaign, Biden reiterated his commitment to siding with Israel in the war in Gaza and accused Hamas of resisting efforts to end the conflict.

For his part, Trump called Biden “a weak and a very bad Palestinian” — using the name of the national group as a slur — and argued that Israel should be given a free hand to finish the job in Gaza.

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance.

“This is American electioneering at its worst,” Maksad said during an appearance on the Arab News current affairs show “Frankly Speaking.” “We all know that American elections tend to be the silly season.

“Candidates will say anything to get elected pretty much, only to turn around and change their position, or at least adjust their position, and in favor of a more nuanced one once they are in fact in the Oval Office. So, I think much of what was said (ought to be taken) with a grain of salt.”




Appearing on “Frankly Speaking,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., said the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

Maksad said it was “quite shameful” for Trump to use the term Palestinian in a “derogatory” way in a bid to undermine Biden by painting him as being relatively pro-Palestinian. “This, while both candidates were falling over themselves to demonstrate their support for Israel.”

Maksad, who is also the Middle East Institute’s senior director for strategic outreach, believes the style and tone of the debate is “just the reality of American electoral dynamics” and should not be considered a concrete policy position of either candidate.

“We can take our pick in terms of examples in the past where candidates have said one thing about nations in the Middle East, only to reverse course and even visit these countries once they become elected president,” he said.

One point that commentators were united on following the election debate was how poorly Biden performed — struggling to express his ideas clearly, fumbling over his words, and pausing for long periods, raising fresh doubts about his cognitive ability.

Although Trump is also prone to meandering speeches, commentators agreed the Republican nominee delivered a more concise and agile performance than the Democratic incumbent.

“I think it’s safe to say that most Americans were shell-shocked by the debate that they saw,” Maksad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“Going into this, the Democratic Party objective was to make this, first and foremost, about (Trump’s legal woes) rather than on the cognitive ability, or lack thereof, of President Biden.

“I think what we clearly saw was the Trump campaign had a great night, a celebratory night, whereas most of the Democratic operatives, fundraisers, and supporters of the president are left scrambling, wondering whether it’s too late in the game to try and draft in another last-minute, 11th hour candidate.”

Although many commentators said Biden offered more substance in his remarks, his poor delivery appears to have cost him in the eyes of voters.

“I very much had that debate with close friends in the Democratic circle, some of whom had served in the White House, as this debate was ongoing, and they kept pointing out to that very point, which is listen to the substance. Our candidate has much more substance,” Maksad said.

“Trump, in fact, rambles and says very little in terms of substance, not much in terms of specific policy focus and policy options being put on the table here. I think that’s true. I take the point, but I do think that in elections and American elections, how you come across to a voter is equally, if not more, important.

“And it was abundantly apparent that (former) President Trump was the more capable, confident, powerful in his presence on stage in this debate.”

If those watching the debate were hoping to learn more about where the rivals stood on the big foreign policy questions of the day, they would have been sorely disappointed as Biden and Trump focused mainly on domestic issues.

There were, however, some minor indications of similarities and differences on Middle East policy.

“President Biden — very much in favor of diplomacy. Some might say even accommodating Iran in the region, its aspirations,” said Maksad. “President Trump — much more confrontational when it comes to Iran, looking to contain its influence in the region.

“But that’s not to say that there aren’t similarities, too. I think, when it comes to regional integration, a possible normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, you see a bipartisanship on these issues here in Washington, D.C.”

Gaza, meanwhile, has become a deeply polarizing issue in the US, even beyond the Arab and Muslim communities, with protests taking place on university campuses across the country.

Asked whether the war is likely to influence the outcome of the election, however, Maksad said it was low down on the list of priorities for the majority of US voters.




If the statements made by US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump during Thursday’s election debate are anything to go by, it will be bad news for the Palestinian people no matter who wins the White House race in November. (AFP)

“I think it’s both unimportant but also very crucial,” he said. “If you take the laundry list of issues for most Americans that they care about, priorities, I don’t think Gaza features anywhere near the top.”

Since the conflict in Gaza began in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, there have been fears that the war would spill over into the wider region. Lebanon, in particular, is seen as being especially vulnerable following months of tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah.

Maksad, who is himself Lebanese and an expert on the nation’s troubled past, believes there are three likely scenarios, as all-out war appears increasingly inevitable.

“One is the current diplomatic efforts that are being spearheaded by Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s envoy on this issue, point person on this issue, who will be visiting areas and coordinating very closely with the French presidential envoy on this matter,” he said.

A diplomatic breakthrough of this kind would mean finding a way for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to step back from his position of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

“That might be through some Israeli withdrawal from the disputed points along the Blue Line, the border between Israel and Lebanon, northern Gaza being something to watch out for,” Maksad said.

“But if the diplomatic breakthrough that we’re all looking, and hoping, for in the coming weeks does not materialize, scenario two here is a limited war … limited to the deep populated areas of northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

“And the US and French diplomacy would then kick in to try and bring things back with the diplomatic track. And that could help dislodge the current stalemate.”

The “catastrophic scenario,” meanwhile, would be a situation that “starts out as an attempt at a limited conflict, a limited war in northern Israel and south Lebanon, very quickly expands to population centers like Beirut and Haifa and beyond that. And we see the 2006 scenario on steroids where Israel is flattening entire blocks of southern Beirut.”

The UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper recently suggested that Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut is being used by Hezbollah to store and smuggle weapons. Although Hezbollah has denied the allegation, there are fears Israel may use the claims as a justification to bomb the airport.

“I’m not too sure that Israel needs a justification to bomb Beirut International Airport,” said Maksad. “They have done so in the past. They’ve done so repeatedly. They’ve cratered the runways. They have done so as far back as the 1960s when the PLO was the major concern operating out of Lebanon.

“So, there’s a long track record there of Israel targeting Lebanese infrastructure. And I’m not too sure that this particular article in the Telegraph is what the Israelis are looking for.

“But that said, also given my Lebanese ancestry, I mean, I think every Lebanese knows that the airport is by and large under the influence and control of Hezbollah or Hezbollah’s allies.”

He added: “Whether in fact the Telegraph article is accurate in that it’s being used as a storage base for Hezbollah missiles is something that’s beyond my capability in terms of being able to assess that.”

Asked whether Hezbollah is likely to make good on Nasrallah’s threat to attack Cyprus — a country that could host Israeli jets should Israel launch an aerial campaign against Hezbollah — Maksad said he thought the comments were merely intended to signal the potential reach of Iran and its regional proxies in the event of war.

“There are multiple views as to why Hassan Nasrallah chose to include Cyprus in the list of threats he made in his recent speech,” he said.

“I do think that, first and foremost, he was thinking from a military perspective in terms of where Israel, and particularly the air force, might be able to operate from if Hezbollah rained missiles on Israeli airports in the north and hamstrings Israel’s ability to operate against it. And Cyprus is high on that list of alternatives for Israel.

“But I do think that he’s also sending a broader message … which is one about Hezbollah’s ability to intercept and contradict and complicate shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“And so through Hezbollah, you have Iran here very clearly signaling its ability to interdict and disrupt global commerce, not only in Hormuz, not only in Bab Al-Mandeb, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean, arguably as far south as Suez.”




Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., says the arguments posed by the candidates during the debate should not be considered their official stance. (AN Photo)

He added: “This is part of Iran signaling its ability now to project influence and power into the Mediterranean, into the Red Sea and certainly within the Arab and Persian Gulf.”

As turmoil rages in the Middle East at the very moment that the US is turning its attention inward to the looming election, doubts have been raised about the possibility of securing the hotly anticipated deal between the US and Saudi Arabia.

“I see very low prospects of the Saudi-US deal being able to move forward,” said Maksad. “In fact, it will continue to be tethered to an Israeli leg with a precondition of a viable, non-reversible pathway towards a Palestinian state.

“But the politics is simply not there on the Israeli side, but also on the Palestinian side. This is the proposition that is entirely devoid of reality on the Israeli and Palestinian side.

“That said, the deal itself, the bilateral aspects of this deal, are largely negotiated and done. Whether it relates to a defense treaty or civil nuclear cooperation or commerce and AI and cyber, those issues have all been successfully negotiated by both the US and by Riyadh.

“But the issue is that if you are seeking a treaty which requires congressional, mainly Senate ratification, it is difficult to see that being passed in the Senate short of normalization with Israel.

“And normalization with Israel, given the very clear Saudi preconditions on the Palestinian state, or a pathway to a Palestinian state, are simply not there.”

 

 

 


Iraq issues arrest warrants for ‘heist of the century’

Iraq issues arrest warrants for ‘heist of the century’
Updated 12 sec ago
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Iraq issues arrest warrants for ‘heist of the century’

Iraq issues arrest warrants for ‘heist of the century’
BAGHDAD: An Iraqi criminal court on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for a businessman and a former government official wanted over their alleged involvement in stealing $2.5 billion of public funds.
The scandal, dubbed the “heist of the century,” sparked widespread anger in Iraq, which is ravaged by rampant corruption, unemployment and decaying infrastructure after decades of conflict.
The criminal court issued the warrants for businessman Nour Zuhair and Haitham Al-Juburi, a former adviser to then prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhemi, state news agency INA reported.
The two suspects are among several facing a trial which opened in mid-August, but are on the run and failed to appear in court.
According to the tax authorities, the defendants allegedly expropriated the $2.5 billion between September 2021 and August 2022 through 247 cheques cashed by five companies.
The money was subsequently withdrawn — in cash — from the firms’ accounts.
The owners of those accounts — most of whom are also on the run — have also been subject to arrest warrants.
Around 30 suspects are facing trial, INA reported, including six already behind bars or awaiting extradition to Iraq, the national anti-fraud agency has said.
In October 2022, Zuhair was arrested at Baghdad airport as he was trying to leave the country.
A month later he was released on bail after giving back more than $125 million and pledging to return the rest in instalments.
Juburi also returned $2.6 million of the allegedly embezzled funds before disappearing, a judicial source told AFP.
The current whereabouts of both men is unknown.
However, wealthy businessman Zuhair was back in the news over the few days after he reportedly had a car crash in Lebanon, following an interview he gave to an Iraqi news channel.
“The Nour Zuhair affair is a scandal... that concerns the entire political system,” Iraqi journalist and commentator Hamed Al-Sayyed told AFP.
He blamed the authorities for releasing him on bail two years ago, allowing him “to flee.”
“His release from jail, at a time when he was being investigated, shows that the political system, at the highest echelons, is complicit,” Sayyed added.
Corruption is endemic in Iraqi state institutions, with the top echelons of power often evading accountability.

Army says Israeli hostage rescued from Gaza

Kaid Farhan Alkadi is seen at an unspecified location.(The Hostages Families Forum Headquarters via AFP)
Kaid Farhan Alkadi is seen at an unspecified location.(The Hostages Families Forum Headquarters via AFP)
Updated 27 August 2024
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Army says Israeli hostage rescued from Gaza

Kaid Farhan Alkadi is seen at an unspecified location.(The Hostages Families Forum Headquarters via AFP)
  • Kaid Alkadi, a 52-year-old Israeli Bedouin, was abducted by Palestinian militants during the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said its forces rescued an Israeli hostage in southern Gaza on Tuesday after a “complex operation.”
Kaid Alkadi, a 52-year-old Israeli Bedouin, was abducted by Palestinian militants during the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the military said in a statement.
“Kaid AlKadi was rescued... in a complex operation in the southern Gaza Strip,” the military said.
“He is in a stable medical condition and is being transferred for medical checks to a hospital.”
Alkadi is a resident of Rahat, a predominantly Arab town, and on October 7 he was working as a guard at a warehouse in southern Israel when he was seized by militants.


Iran former top diplomat Zarif returns to VP post

Iran former top diplomat Zarif returns to VP post
Updated 27 August 2024
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Iran former top diplomat Zarif returns to VP post

Iran former top diplomat Zarif returns to VP post

TEHRAN: Iran’s former foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on Tuesday announced he was returning to his post as vice president to Masoud Pezeshkian after submitting his resignation earlier this month.
Pezeshkian named Zarif as his vice president for strategic affairs on August 1, but the former top diplomat resigned less than two weeks later, citing his disappointment with the line-up in the 19-member cabinet.
He also said he faced pressure because his children hold dual US citizenship.
Conservatives in Iran have criticized Pezeshkian for choosing Zarif, who became known on the international stage for his vital role in negotiating the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
“After the follow-ups and consultations conducted by the president and with his written order, I will continue to exercise my duties as Strategic Vice President,” Zarif said in a post on X.
Zarif — who attended on Tuesday the new cabinet’s first meeting with Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — also praised the new cabinet in his post.
Last week, all the members of Iran’s new cabinet were granted a full vote of confidence from parliament, marking the first time in over two decades a president got all his nominees through the body.
Zarif, who has represented Iran in the United Nations, served as the country’s top diplomat between 2013 and 2021 under moderate president Hassan Rouhani.
The 2015 nuclear deal was effectively torpedoed three years later when the US unilaterally pulled out, but it helped cement Zarif’s reputation as a combative negotiator who nonetheless opened Iran up to the West.


A dam collapse in eastern Sudan kills at least 30 people following heavy rains, a UN agency says

A dam collapse in eastern Sudan kills at least 30 people following heavy rains, a UN agency says
Updated 27 August 2024
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A dam collapse in eastern Sudan kills at least 30 people following heavy rains, a UN agency says

A dam collapse in eastern Sudan kills at least 30 people following heavy rains, a UN agency says
  • The flooding has either destroyed or damaged the homes of 50,000 people living in the areas west of the dam

CAIRO: The collapse of the Arbaat Dam in Sudan’s eastern Red Sea state over the weekend flooded nearby homes and killed at least 30 people following heavy rains, a UN agency said.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said late Monday, citing local officials, that the actual number of fatalities from the collapse on Sunday might be higher. Additionally, about 70 villages around the dam were affected by the flash flooding, including 20 villages that have been destroyed.
The Arbaat Dam, which is about 38 kilometers (nearly 25 miles) northwest of Port Sudan, was massively damaged because of heavy rains. In areas west of the dam, the flooding either destroyed or damaged the homes of 50,000 people — 77 percent of the total population living there. Those affected urgently need food, water and shelter, OCHA warned, adding that damage in eastern parts of the dam is still being assessed.
More than 80 boreholes collapsed because of the flooding, OCHA said citing officials, while 10,000 heads of livestock are missing, and 70 schools have been either damaged or destroyed.
Heavy rain and flooding across Sudan this month impacted more than 317,000 people. Of those impacted, 118,000 people have been displaced, exacerbating one of the world’s biggest displacement crises due to the ongoing war in the country.
Tuesday marks 500 days since Sudan plunged into war after fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF.
The conflict began in the capital, Khartoum, and raged across Sudan, killing thousands of people, destroying civilian infrastructure, and pushing many to the brink of famine. More than 10 million people were forcibly displaced to find safety, according to the UN
Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), or Doctors Without Borders, said in a statement Tuesday that “this is a shameful moment” for international humanitarian organizations, which for more than 16 months, “have failed to provide an adequate response to the country’s escalating medical needs — from catastrophic child malnutrition to widespread disease outbreaks.”
“At the same time, heavy restrictions from both warring parties have drastically limited the ability to deliver humanitarian aid,” MSF said.
Abdirahman Ali, CARE’s Sudan country director warned in a statement Tuesday that the war “shattered” the health care system, “leaving countless without care.”
More than 75 percent of health care systems have been destroyed since the war began, according to a World Health Organization estimate in July.


US backs UN bid to resolve dispute over Libya Central Bank

US backs UN bid to resolve dispute over Libya Central Bank
Updated 27 August 2024
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US backs UN bid to resolve dispute over Libya Central Bank

US backs UN bid to resolve dispute over Libya Central Bank
  • Libya is struggling to recover from years of conflict after the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that overthrew longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi

TRIPOLI: The United States gave its backing Tuesday to UN efforts to resolve differences between Libya’s rival administrations over the mangement of the central bank without cutting off vital oil income.

The US embassy said the move by the UN Support Mission in Libya “offers a path forward to resolve the crisis” sparked by the eastern administration’s announcement on Monday that it was suspending operations at all oil fields and export terminals under its control.

In a statement late Monday, UNSMIL said it was “convening an emergency meeting for all parties involved” in the crisis.

It also called for “immediately lifting force majeure on oil fields and refraining from using the country’s primary revenue source for political ends.”

Libya is struggling to recover from years of conflict after the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that overthrew longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi.

It remains divided between the UN-recognized government in Tripoli led by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, and the rival administration in the east backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar.

Most of its oil fields are located in regions controlled by Haftar, but oil revenues and the state budget are managed by the Central Bank based in Tripoli.

On Monday, Libya’s eastern-based administration said it was shutting down oil fields and terminals it controls in response to what it said were attempts by the western-based government to seize control of the Central Bank.

UNSMIL said “resolving this emerging crisis is an urgent necessity” and called for measures to protect the Central Bank’s employees from “threats and arbitrary arrests.”

On August 18, the bank’s head of information technology was kidnapped, and the bank said it was suspending its operations until his release later the same day.

A week earlier, Libyan media reported that armed men had besieged the bank in a bid to force the resignation of its governor, Seddik Al-Kabir, who has faced mounting criticism from people close to Dbeibah over its management of oil resources and the state budget.

On Monday morning, the eastern-based administration said an “outlaw group” close to the Tripoli authorities had forcibly taken over the bank.

Reports later said that the Presidential Council, which is close to Dbeibah, had established a commission tasked with leading a “transition of powers” which had installed a new bank board.