WASHINGTON, 3 September 2004 — Titillating reports of the imminent arrest of possible Israeli spies in the Pentagon jolted the otherwise dull news cycle last Friday. The initial reports indicated that a lengthy FBI probe involving both Pentagon officials and staff of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) was a full-blown espionage investigation. Since that time, most news sources speculate the charges may not rise to the level of espionage, and may only result in the arrest of a “low-level” employee of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Larry Franklin, for leaking classified documents.
The truth may fall somewhere in between, but according to the Washington Post, arrests — plural — may be imminent. Whom and on what charges remains unknown. The selective information leaks about the investigation has, however, stimulated a series of theories and questions to emerge concerning the investigation, the individuals involved, and the repercussions.
All such discussions, and certainly postmortems, are premature. Until actual charges are filed, all reports about the facts, individuals involved, and consequences are mere speculation.
Just as President Bush was making last-minute campaign stops en-route to New York where later this week he will accept the Republican presidential nomination, CBS News broke the sensational espionage story. The CBS story — immediately splashed on headlines across the United States — alleged that individuals and/or entities compromised and manipulated US policy on Iran and perhaps, far more troubling, the decision to invade Iraq. The report included a graphic flow chart connecting the Pentagon to AIPAC to Israel.
If the story has legs it has the potential not only to dim the spotlight that ordinarily would shine exclusively on the Republican convention, but question the president’s ability to manage foreign policy and national security. Since prominent neoconservatives close to the president have been featured in various news stories about the “Franklin Affair,” it could also call into question Bush’s overall judgment and leadership. But it is far too early to tell what, if any, damage the president will accrue.
Nearly as interesting as the spy caper itself is the mystery as to who leaked the story to the press. There is a lengthy list of suspects. At the top of the list is the Central Intelligence Agency.
After all, the Bush administration, from the president on down, has pinned the blame for faulty Iraqi WMD intelligence on the CIA and its disgraced former head, George Tenet. When the Sept. 11 Commission Report was released last month, it was the CIA who was held responsible; both the Clinton and Bush administrations were essentially cleared of wrongdoing. The commission also called for the dismantling of the CIA, a policy embraced by Republicans and Democrats alike.
Then there is the possibility the leak came from the Pentagon itself. The post-invasion Iraq envisioned by neoconservatives assumed rosy scenarios where few troops and minimal taxpayer funds would be needed to build a model democracy that would export democracy — like a reverse domino theory — to its autocratic neighbors. Today, however, the US military finds itself engaged in a bloody insurgency campaign in a deeply fractured society. As the number of American deaths in Iraq nears 1,000, the discontent among the men and women clad in olive-green fatigues grows.
It is no secret that many members of the officer corps are displeased with the Bush administration, and resentful toward the Pentagon’s civilian leadership.
The architect of the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns, retired Gen. Tommy Franks, allegedly holds a particularly strong and negative opinion of one of the men in the center of the current controversy, Undersecretary Douglas Feith, whom he once called, “the (expletive) stupidest guy on the face of the earth.”
The State Department also has motives to embarrassing Bush at a particularly sensitive time. It is assumed by most Washingtonians that should Bush manage to win in November, Collin Powell will not return for a second shift as secretary of state. It is also no secret that Powell and his right-hand man, Richard Armitage, loathe the Pentagon neoconservatives. Powell’s multilateral approach — shared by most career diplomats — is anathema to the neocons, who outdueled the more moderate Powell on Iraq and the Middle East peace process.
Regardless of the identity of the leaker, the story and facts are already the subject of considerable debate. And because of the individuals named in the probe — William Luti, Douglas Feith, and Paul Wolfowitz — it is grist for critics of the administration who opposed both the invasion of Iraq and the Bush’s hard-line pro-Israel position on the peace process. These dissenters have long felt Bush and his neoconservative allies have charted the United States on a dangerous course, which has left the country in the unenviable position of being the most feared nation in the world.
Bush has given his critics plenty of ammunition from which to construct a number of conspiracy theories. For example, the Bush-Cheney ties to the oil industry. According to some theories, oil companies influenced the national energy plan, the invasion of Afghanistan, and decision to depose Saddam Hussein.
Another prominent conspiracy pertains to the neoconservatives, under whose sway Bush has embraced “democratic imperialism” and in word and deed proffer unprecedented support for Israel.
The conspiracies actually make sense in many cases, and have greater weight due to Bush’s puzzling appointment of scores of scandal-tainted individuals to prominent national security positions, such as Iran-Contra veterans Elliot Abrams, John Poindexter, John Negroponte, and Otto Reich. Other polarizing figures include Feith, who left an earlier stint at the National Security Council under a black cloud.
It is ultimately too early to tell the ramifications in the short or long-term for Bush, his appointees, AIPAC, or Israel. Much depends on where and to whom the investigation leads.
In the meantime, it has all the right ingredients of a perfect storm: Just enough facts and allegations to generate countless new and juicy conspiracy theories.
— David Dumke is the CEO of the American Middle East Information Network and Principal of the MidAmr Group.
