WASHINGTON, 9 September 2004 — Forecasts of John Kerry’s political demise may have been exaggerated in recent days, and he could still be clinging to a narrow lead in the US presidential race, according to a poll published on Tuesday.
The poll, by Zogby International, reflected the state of play in 20 swing states, and found that the surge in George Bush’s support there after last week’s Republican convention, was less pronounced than the double-digits suggested in two weekend polls.
Those surveys, in Time and Newsweek, triggered alarm and finger-pointing in the Democratic camp, and a reshuffle in the Kerry team. But other surveys have since suggested the Bush convention “bounce” was much smaller and the contest remains a close one.
The Zogby poll says the president has made up ground in many of the 20 battleground states, but Kerry retains a slim lead in most of them — enough to give him a majority in the electoral college, if the vote was held now.
The college, which chooses the president, is made up of 538 delegates drawn from the 50 states and Washington DC, according to population. Assigning electors according to the way each state is leaning now, the Zogby poll gives Kerry a lead of 273 to 222, down from the past two months, but a significant edge all the same.
“There’s no doubt that Bush got a bounce...but no way is he up 11 points,” John Zogby, the head of Zogby International, said.
Newsweek magazine showed the Bush with an 11 percentage point lead among registered voters, while Time magazine gave him a nine- point lead. But another survey by Gallup, CNN and USA Today showed only a one-point advantage.
The confusion may reflect the volatility that follows the impassioned speeches and allegations made at conventions. It may also be explained by different surveying methods, and some of it is simply a result of polls being taken over the Labor Day holiday weekend, when many Americans are away from home.
Charlie Cook, an experienced US election analyst, said: “To be dependent upon getting a representative sample over a holiday weekend is enough to make any pollster wince. Polling conducted this week, after people are back from Labor Day and had a chance to digest the Republican convention, will be a far better test.”
US electoral history suggests that leads established at party conventions can often dissipate in the last two frenetic months of the campaign.
The Democratic challenger in 2000, Al Gore, had a double-digit lead over Bush after the Labor Day weekend in 2000, but lost it after lackluster performances in the three presidential debates.
