JERUSALEM, 15 October 2004 — Israel could end up on a collision course with the European Union and face sanctions like apartheid-era South Africa unless the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved, a confidential government report warns.
The document, a 10-year forecast prepared by Israel’s Foreign Ministry, predicts that the Jewish state could become increasingly isolated internationally as the EU grows more influential, political sources said.
The report says that if the recently expanded 25-nation bloc can set aside internal differences and forge a unified foreign policy, it could “harm Israeli interests” by cutting into the clout wielded by the United States, Israel’s chief ally.
“This could put Israel on a collision course with the European Union,” the report says. “Such a collision course holds the risk of Israel losing international legitimacy and could lead to its isolation in the manner of South Africa.”
The report, drawn up in August by Foreign Ministry analysts and meant for use within government circles, reflects growing Israeli worries about the threat of international sanctions that could turn Israel into a pariah state.
Israel’s relations with the EU have long been strained over what it sees as favoritism toward the Palestinians in their conflict with the Jewish state. But the situation has deteriorated further in the face of European criticism of Israel’s military crackdown in Palestinian areas and the vast barrier it is building largely inside the occupied West Bank.
For its part, Israel has complained of what it sees as growing anti-Semitism in Europe and inadequate efforts to combat it.
Israel prefers to deal almost exclusively with Washington on Middle East diplomacy. President George W. Bush is seen as the most pro-Israel US leader ever, having agreed the Jewish state should be allowed to keep swathes of occupied land and bar the return of Palestinian refugees under any final peace deal.
But Palestinians have always insisted on a European role, seeing them as more sympathetic to their cause than Washington. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon threatened in July to freeze the EU out of Middle East peacemaking after EU states backed a UN General Assembly resolution demanding that Israel heed a World Court ruling calling on it to tear down its West Bank barrier.
On Wednesday, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana unveiled a four-point plan to revive Middle East talks, offering new assistance to the Palestinians and warning Israel its aid was at risk if it did not cooperate.
Meanwhile, Palestinian leaders at the United Nations have begun pushing for sanctions against Israel, citing as a model the anti-apartheid boycotts against South Africa that began in the 1970s. But the United States, which wields a veto in the UN Security Council, has made clear that it would block any such effort.
