OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth

OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais speaking during the launch of the group’s latest report in Brazil. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares
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Updated 25 September 2024
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OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth

OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth
  • 2045 demand forecast up 3m bpd from last year’s outlook
  • OPEC extends forecast to 2050, with demand at 120.1m bpd
  • OPEC sees no peak demand, unlike BP and IEA forecasts

LONDON/RIO DE JANEIRO: OPEC has raised its forecasts for world oil demand for the medium and long term in an annual outlook, citing growth led by India, Africa and the Middle East and a slower shift to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels.

In its 2024 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday, the group sees demand growing for a longer period than other forecasters like BP and the International Energy Agency, which expect oil use to peak this decade.

“Future energy demand is found in the developing world due to increasing populations, middle class and urbanization,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais during the report’s launch in Brazil, a country with which the organization is seeking to form closer ties.

Al-Ghais’ speech in Rio de Janeiro was briefly disturbed by a protester from Greenpeace.

A longer period of rising consumption would be a boost for OPEC, whose 12 members depend on oil income. In support of its view, OPEC said it expected more push back on “ambitious” clean energy targets, and cited plans by several global carmakers to scale down electrification goals.

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” Al-Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report.

“Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready.”

OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels per day by 2045, around 2.9 million bpd higher than expected in last year’s report. The report rolled out its timeline to 2050 and expects demand to hit 120.1 million bpd by then.

That is far above other 2050 forecasts from the industry. BP projects oil use will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd in 2050. Exxon Mobil expects oil demand to stay above 100 million bpd through 2050, similar to today’s level.

OPEC has been calling for more oil industry investment and said the sector needs $17.4 trillion to be spent to 2050, compared with $14 trillion needed by 2045 estimated last year.

“All policymakers and stakeholders need to work together to ensure a long-term investment-friendly climate,” Al-Ghais wrote.




OPEC wants more investment in the oil industry. Shutterstock

Higher 2029 forecast than IEA

OPEC also raised its medium term demand forecasts, citing a stronger economic backdrop than last year as inflation pressure wanes and central banks start to lower interest rates.

World demand in 2028 will reach 111 million bpd, OPEC said, and 112.3 million bpd in 2029. The 2028 figure is up 800,000 bpd from last year’s prediction.

OPEC’s 2029 forecast is more than 6 million bpd higher than that of the IEA, which said in June demand will plateau in 2029 at 105.6 million bpd. The gap is larger than the combined output of OPEC members Kuwait and the UAE.

In 2020, OPEC made a shift when the pandemic hit oil demand, saying consumption would plateau in the late 2030s. It has begun raising forecasts again as oil use has recovered.

By 2050, there will be 2.9 billion vehicles on the road, up 1.2 billion from 2023, OPEC forecast. Despite electric vehicle growth, vehicles powered by a combustion engine will account for more than 70 percent of the global fleet in 2050, the report said.

“Electric vehicles are poised for a larger market share, but obstacles remain, such as electricity grids, battery manufacturing capacity and access to critical minerals,” it said.

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, are cutting supply to support the market. The report sees OPEC+’s share of the oil market rising to 52 percent in 2050 from 49 percent in 2023 as US output peaks in 2030 and non-OPEC+ output does so in the early 2030s. 


Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector

Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector
Updated 01 December 2024
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Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector

Tripartite deal signed to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is poised for significant growth following a new tripartite partnership designed to enhance housing finance and establish a secondary mortgage market.

Under the patronage of Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs Majid Al-Hogail a memorandum of understanding was signed on Sunday by the Real Estate Development Fund, Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co., and Al-Ahli Bank. The agreement aims to support the Kingdom’s housing sector and accelerate the development of a secondary mortgage market.

The MoU, which involves the Public Investment Fund’s fully owned SRC and Al-Ahli Bank, marks an important step in fostering closer collaboration between financial institutions. As part of the agreement, Al-Ahli Bank will continue to create mortgage portfolios, which will be refinanced through the SRC, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

This partnership is expected to fast-track the creation of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), both domestically and internationally. By doing so, it will help realize the goals of the Kingdom's housing program, promoting the development of a sustainable and integrated real estate financing system. The initiative will also contribute to expanding housing options for Saudi citizens.

Recent data from the Saudi Central Bank shows that banks in Saudi Arabia disbursed SR60.92 billion ($16.24 billion) in residential mortgages during the first nine months of 2024, marking a 4.88 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Of this amount, SR38.85 billion was allocated for home purchases, accounting for 64 percent of the total mortgage loans. However, the share of loans for house purchases declined slightly by 3.38 percent year on year, dropping from 69 percent in 2023.

Demand for apartments has surged in response to urbanization and demographic shifts. Apartments now account for 31 percent of all mortgages, up from 25 percent last year, with lending for apartment purchases reaching SR18.6 billion — an increase of 26.8 percent. Loans for land purchases also grew by 8.26 percent to reach SR3.5 billion, underscoring continued interest in land investment across the Kingdom.

The new partnership aims to provide liquidity in the market, ensuring a continuous flow of mortgage financing and supporting the development of the secondary mortgage market in Saudi Arabia.

At the signing ceremony, Al-Hogail also launched a new financing offer from Al-Ahli Bank, with rates starting as low as 2.59% for those interested in purchasing units under construction.

Mansour bin Madi, CEO of the Real Estate Development Fund, emphasized that the strategic partnership with SRC and financial institutions aims to improve the residential mortgage market and reduce financing costs for Saudi families. He highlighted that the initiative aligns with the objectives of the “Sakani” program and the broader real estate goals of Saudi Vision 2030.

Majeed Al-Abduljabbar, CEO of SRC, noted: “This partnership with Al-Ahli Bank is a crucial step in advancing the mortgage financing market in the Kingdom. Through this collaboration, we aim to offer innovative solutions that enhance liquidity, allowing financial institutions to provide mortgage financing tailored to market needs, while expanding property options for citizens.”

Tareq Al-Sadhan, CEO of Al-Ahli Bank, affirmed that the partnership with SRC demonstrates the bank’s commitment to fostering growth in the housing sector and contributing to the development of a dynamic secondary mortgage market. This, he added, will support Saudi Arabia’s broader economic diversification efforts.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741

Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741
Updated 01 December 2024
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741

Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,741

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Sunday, gaining 100.43 points, or 0.86 percent, to close at 11,741.74.  

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.63 billion ($1.23 billion), as 159 of the stocks advanced and 64 retreated.   

On the other hand, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 221.58 points, or 0.73 percent, to close at 30,173.12. This comes as 34 of the listed stocks advanced while 48 retreated.   

The MSCI Tadawul Index gained 11.24 points, or 0.77 percent, to close at 1,471.59.   

The best-performing stock of the day was Gulf Insurance Group, whose share price surged 8.35 percent to SR31.80.  

Other top performers included Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co., whose share price rose 4.61 percent to SR15.44, and Lazurde Co. for Jewelry, whose share price increased 4.26 percent to SR13.70.

Tamkeen Human Resource Co. recorded the biggest drop, falling 11.34 percent to SR68.

Etihad Etisalat Co. also saw its stock prices fall 3.08 percent to SR53.50.

Meanwhile, Northern Region Cement Co. also saw its stock prices dropping 1.86 percent to SR8.98.

On the announcements front, Nice One Beauty Digital Marketing Co. has announced plans to raise up to SR1.2 billion by offering 30 percent of its shares on the Saudi Stock Exchange.

SNB Capital Co. will act as the offering’s lead manager, financial advisor, book-runner, and underwriter.

EFG Hermes Saudi Arabia will join as joint financial advisors, book-runners, and underwriters. The institutional book-building period will run from Dec. 1 to 8.

According to a Tadawul statement, the price range for the offering has been set between SR32 and SR35 per share. The offering is comprised of 34.650 million ordinary shares, representing 30 percent of the company’s capital after the issuance of new shares and capital increase.

The minimum number of offer shares to be applied for participating parties is 100,000, while the maximum is 5.7 million. The participation in the book-building process is confined to the participating parties in accordance with the Instructions for Book Building Process and Allocation Method in the initial public offering issued by the Capital Market Authority. 

The final price per offer share will be determined after the completion of the book-building process, to be followed by the individual subscriber’s subscription process. The final allocation of the offer shares will be made after the end of the subscription period for individual investors.


Saudi Arabia’s Economic Council reviews outlook, approves key growth strategies

Saudi Arabia’s Economic Council reviews outlook, approves key growth strategies
Updated 01 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s Economic Council reviews outlook, approves key growth strategies

Saudi Arabia’s Economic Council reviews outlook, approves key growth strategies

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Council of Economic and Development Affairs reviewed the Kingdom’s economic outlook and strategies to address global challenges, offering recommendations to support growth and resilience.  

In a video conference meeting, the council began by reviewing the quarterly economic report from the Ministry of Economy and Planning, which highlighted key developments in both global and national economies, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

This follows Saudi Arabia’s 2.8 percent economic growth in the third quarter of 2024, driven by strong performance in non-oil sectors, official data showed.  

The country’s non-oil sector expanded by 4.2 percent year-on-year, in line with Vision 2030’s goal to reduce dependence on oil, according to a recent report from the General Authority for Statistics. 

During the meeting, the council reviewed the Ministry of Finance’s third-quarter report on the performance of the state’s general budget for fiscal year 2024. The report provided a breakdown of financial performance through the third quarter, including indicators for revenues, expenditures, and public debt. 

The findings confirm the Kingdom’s ongoing support for development projects, its strengthening of social care and protection systems, and its commitment to implementing major initiatives under Vision 2030. 

The Ministry of Commerce also presented a report from the Permanent Committee for Price Monitoring during the third quarter of 2024, outlining the roles and tasks of the committee's participants. 

The report highlighted key developments, including global price trends, consumption patterns, and inflation indicators in the Kingdom. It also detailed consumer goods prices for the third quarter and the measures taken to ensure the availability of goods and maintain price stability. 

The meeting also covered several other topics and reports, including the National Export Strategy Project, the National Savings Strategy, and initiatives related to financial inclusion and education. 

Additionally, the council reviewed the third-quarter 2024 Real Estate Price Index, the executive summary of foreign trade for August 2024, the September 2024 Consumer Price Index report, and the Wholesale Price Index report for the same period. 

The meeting concluded with the council making necessary decisions and recommendations on all discussed matters. The council’s recommendations and decisions are set to guide the country’s economic trajectory in the coming months. 


Oman inflation at 0.8% in October: official data

Oman inflation at 0.8% in October: official data
Updated 01 December 2024
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Oman inflation at 0.8% in October: official data

Oman inflation at 0.8% in October: official data

RIYADH: Oman’s inflation rate saw a modest 0.8 percent increase in October compared to the same month last year despite price increases across several categories, according to an official report.  

The National Center for Statistics and Information analysis revealed that consumer prices for miscellaneous goods and services increased by 4.8 percent year on year, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages by 3.5 percent, healthcare by 3.2 percent, and culture and recreation by 0.8 percent.  

Restaurants and hotels also saw gains of 0.6 percent, clothing and footwear by 0.5 percent, household furniture and maintenance by 0.4 percent, and education by 0.1 percent.  

Conversely, transportation prices declined by 2.6 percent, while housing, utilities, fuel, communication, and tobacco categories remained stable.  

Breaking down the food and beverage category, vegetable prices recorded the largest increase at 8.9 percent. Fruits followed with an 8 percent rise. Dairy products, including milk, cheese, and eggs, increased by 5.4 percent. Oils and fats rose by 3.8 percent, while meat prices climbed by 2.8 percent. Sugar and confectionery saw a 2.4 percent increase. 

Processed foods increased by 1.8 percent, bread and cereals by 0.8 percent, and non-alcoholic beverages by 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, fish and seafood prices fell by 1.2 percent, partially offsetting the broader price hikes in food items.  

Broad money supply  

Data by the nation’s central bank pointed to a significant expansion in Oman’s broad money supply, which grew by 13.9 percent year on year, reaching 24.7 billion Omani rials ($64.1 billion) by the end of September.  

This growth was driven by an 18.2 percent increase in narrow money and a 12.3 percent rise in quasi-money, which includes savings deposits, term deposits in Omani rials, and certificates of deposit issued by banks, as well as margin accounts, and foreign currency holdings within the banking sector.  

Despite the overall monetary expansion, cash held by the public declined by 6.7 percent, while demand deposits surged by 25.1 percent, reflecting changing preferences in liquidity management.  

Commercial banks in Oman recorded rising interest rates during the period. The weighted average interest rate on Omani rial-denominated deposits increased from 2.453 percent in September 2023 to 2.679 percent in September this year.  

Similarly, the weighted average interest rate on loans denominated in Omani rials rose from 5.451 percent to 5.604 percent over the same period.  

Interbank lending rates for overnight transactions declined slightly, with the average falling to 4.896 percent in September compared to 5.388 percent in the same month last year.  

This shift aligns with the reduction in the weighted average repurchase rate, which decreased from 6.000 percent to 5.790 percent during the same timeframe. These movements are attributed to adjustments in monetary policy in line with the US Federal Reserve’s actions. 


COP16: A turning point for global land restoration and drought resilience  

COP16: A turning point for global land restoration and drought resilience  
Updated 01 December 2024
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COP16: A turning point for global land restoration and drought resilience  

COP16: A turning point for global land restoration and drought resilience  

RIYADH: The 16th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification is set to be a pivotal moment in the global fight against desertification and land degradation. 

Scheduled for Dec. 2-13, 2024, in Riyadh, COP16 carries the theme “Our Land. Our Future.”  

This event aligns with the 30th anniversary of the UNCCD and marks the first time its COP will convene in the Middle East and North Africa — a region acutely affected by the devastating impacts of desertification and drought. 

Why COP16 matters 

As one of the three Rio Conventions, alongside climate change and biodiversity, UNCCD plays a critical role in global environmental governance. COP16 aims to catalyze unprecedented ambition and investment to restore degraded lands and enhance drought resilience. 

The conference will focus on several key objectives:  

Scaling up land restoration: Accelerating efforts to restore 1.5 billion hectares of degraded land by 2030. 

Strengthening drought resilience: Enhancing global and national policy frameworks to better withstand and manage droughts. 

Promoting people-centered solutions: Ensuring the participation of local communities, women, and youth in land management and restoration efforts.  

“The COP16 plans to combat land degradation present exciting opportunities,” said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer of Century Financial, in an interview with Arab News. 

“Land restoration will promote job growth, encourage sustainable development, and support local economies. According to the UNCCD, every dollar invested in restoring degraded lands yields between $7 and $30 in economic returns,” he added.  

Valecha underscored the importance of collaboration in achieving these ambitious goals, stating: “The target to reforest 1.5 billion hectares will require close collaboration among experts, universities, NGOs, government organizations, and the private sector. This collaboration will strengthen knowledge transfer to local communities and grassroots organizations, making development more sustainable in the long term.”  

HIGHLIGHTS

As the hosts, Saudi Arabia is also introducing the first-ever Green Zone at a UNCCD COP, aimed at mobilizing the scientific community, businesses, financial institutions, NGOs, and the public to deliver lasting change.   

COP16 in Riyadh will host the first dual-track dialogue at a UNCCD COP, combining a negotiation track with an action agenda to address pressing environmental issues.  

The high-level segment of COP16, scheduled for Dec. 2-3, will feature ministerial dialogues on drought resilience, finance, and the impact of land degradation and drought on forced migration, security, and prosperity.  

Saudi Arabia’s hosting of COP16 highlights the region’s critical role in addressing desertification and water scarcity. 

The MENA region is one of the areas most impacted by desertification, with some areas experiencing nearly 100 percent land degradation.

‘Missed calls from the land’  

As COP16 in Riyadh approaches, the presidency announced the launch of the global campaign, “Missed calls from the land.”  

This initiative, supported by a campaign film, highlighted Saudi Arabia’s commitment as the UNCCD COP16 Presidency to raise global awareness about the urgent issues of land degradation, drought, and desertification.  

Currently, 40 percent of the world’s land is degraded, affecting 3.2 billion people. The UNCCD’s target aims to restore 1.5 billion hectares of degraded land by 2030.  

Valecha elaborated on how land restoration will have far-reaching impacts: “Restoration also improves water retention in the soil, enhances agricultural output, stimulates the livestock economy, and increases water availability for human consumption.”  

He added: “These efforts will create more green jobs, making economies more resilient in the face of climate challenges.”  

Ministerial dialogues  

COP16 in Riyadh will host the first dual-track dialogue at a UNCCD COP, combining a negotiation track with an action agenda to address pressing environmental issues.  

The high-level segment of COP16, scheduled for Dec. 2-3, will feature ministerial dialogues on drought resilience, finance, and the impact of land degradation and drought on forced migration, security, and prosperity.  

“COP16 in Riyadh is a critical moment for the international community to address land degradation, drought and desertification,” said Osama Faqeeha, deputy minister for environment and adviser to the UNCCD COP16 Presidency.  

In a press release, he added: “From food and water insecurity to climate change, conflict, instability, and forced migration, how we treat our land has a profound impact on lives and livelihoods around the world.” 

As the hosts, Saudi Arabia is also introducing the first-ever Green Zone at a UNCCD COP, aimed at mobilizing the scientific community, businesses, financial institutions, NGOs, and the public to deliver lasting change.   

“At the same time, we are engaging policymakers from around the world in a range of high-profile discussions to deliver decisive multilateral action. This dual-pronged approach is vital to accelerating the land restoration and drought resilience initiatives our planet and its people so desperately need,” said Faqeeha.

FAO’s central role  

The Food and Agriculture Organization will play a key role at COP16, reflecting its commitment to sustainable land management and food security. Abdul Hakim Elwaer, FAO’s assistant director-general, emphasized in remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat the organization’s active participation, including leading discussions on transforming food systems and coordinating thematic days like Food Day and Governance Day.  

Valecha tied land restoration directly to food security, emphasizing: “Land restoration is crucial for ensuring we have enough food for the future. Sustainable methods like agroecology and regenerative agriculture can improve soil health, reduce carbon emissions, and boost productivity, creating robust food supply chains that adapt to climate change.”  

Strengthening drought resilience  

Building resilience to drought will be a key focus of COP16, emphasizing the role of policies and technologies, with Valecha advocating for proactive measures. 

“To improve drought resilience, a comprehensive framework is needed. This includes identifying vulnerable areas, implementing early warning systems, and enacting policies to prevent water overuse,” he said.  

“Measures such as promoting drought-resistant crops and establishing drought management funds will provide essential protection for affected communities,” Valecha added. 

The integration of local and indigenous knowledge into these efforts is equally vital.   

Valecha said: “Indigenous communities, as key stakeholders in land restoration, possess deep understanding of their ecosystems. Their involvement can significantly reduce deforestation rates, as seen in countries like Nepal and regions in the Americas.”  

A regional and global impact  

Saudi Arabia’s hosting of COP16 highlights the region’s critical role in addressing desertification and water scarcity. 

The MENA region is one of the areas most impacted by desertification, with some areas experiencing nearly 100 percent land degradation. COP16 will provide an opportunity for regional countries to showcase their resilience strategies and contribute to shaping global policies.  

“The Gulf and MENA region, owing to its demographics, have been at the center of environmental challenges,” said Valecha. “However, initiatives such as drought and disease-resistant crop varieties by GCC nations demonstrate the region’s commitment to combating these challenges.”  

Moreover, COP16 will offer a platform to showcase innovative solutions, from advanced land management practices to cutting-edge technologies in water conservation.  

Youth and community engagement  

For the first time, COP16 will see Saudi Arabia host a Green Zone alongside the formal Blue Zone program. This inclusive public space will promote environmental awareness through family-friendly and cultural activities. 

The emphasis on inclusivity is central to COP16, with forums and training sessions for youth, women, and indigenous communities. The Green Zone will host discussions on sustainable land stewardship while featuring workshops, exhibitions, and interactive art installations.  

Valecha highlighted the potential of youth engagement at COP16: “Selected youth negotiators will participate in the Youth Negotiators Academy, equipping them with skills to advocate for actionable policies. These efforts promote intergenerational dialogue and foster solutions for sustainable livelihoods.”  

“Globally, women account for nearly 50 percent of agricultural labor in small-scale farming. Gender-inclusive policies across the value chain are critical to the success of restoration initiatives,” said Valecha. 

Innovative solutions and partnerships  

COP16 is expected to unveil groundbreaking initiatives, with Valecha anticipating significant developments. He added: “The conference could lead to the establishment of financing mechanisms and restoration funds. Cross-border partnerships can help maintain the Land Degradation Neutrality target and prevent further degradation of land resources.” 

Valecha emphasized the critical role of the private sector in achieving COP16’s goals, highlighting the potential contributions of international financial institutions and private companies. He pointed to favorable loans, green bonds, and funding for sustainable practices such as no-till farming and rotational grazing as key areas of support.  

He also stressed that public-private partnerships are vital for scaling up land restoration efforts. 

A call to action  

As COP16 commences, the world stands at a crossroads. This conference is not just a meeting but a call to action — a chance to turn ambition into tangible solutions for land, livelihoods, and the planet’s future.