When it comes to the Kashmir dispute and the Kashmiris determining their future, President Parvez Musharraf has always been a “man in hurry.” He has repeatedly “adjusted” Pakistan’s Kashmir policy to engage India. His adjustments have been numerous: Independence is a possibility, Pakistan will prevent cross-LOC infiltration, only a solution acceptable to India, Pakistan and Kashmiris will work, a solution outside the UN Security Council resolutions can also be explored and the wishes of the Kashmiri people will have to be factored. Musharraf has somewhat changed the establishment line that normalization of ties with India would only follow a resolution of the Kashmir dispute.
Musharraf has been personally supervising the India policy — from asking Colin Powel in April last year to check if Vajpayee would take a call from Prime Minister Jamali to inducting his most trusted friend to conduct back-channel diplomacy with the Indians. He ultimately calls the shots.
On India Musharraf has been a maverick within the establishment counseling proactive thinking. He has often disagreed with others in the team on Indian intentions. He wants to try a positive approach toward India — some confidence building, some plain talking and some genuine soul-searching with his Indian counterparts to push the dialogue forward on Kashmir.
For the Indian ruling elite, he now understands, Kashmir is the toughest nut to crack. As early as the sixties in their one-on-one conversation in Murree, Ayub Khan writes in Friends Not Masters, Indian Prime Minister Nehru told him seeking a settlement on Kashmir would be politically difficult for him. That among others has been New Delhi’s refrain.
For Pakistan, whether under civil or military governments, the hardest test has been engaging India on the Kashmir dispute. Getting a commitment from the Indians to grant the Kashmiris the right to self-determination was a monumental achievement of the Liaquat Ali Khan government as well as men of the caliber of Sir Zafarullah Khan.
But that history gnaws at the core of any serious attempt at genuine Pakistan-Indian reconciliation. Musharraf appreciates this fact. He also knows that for the Kashmiris a fair settlement is a priority. There is also negotiating space that the armed struggle created for negotiations. Of the many developments and realizations that have taken place with regard to the Kashmir dispute, one is the Indian realization that force alone can’t solve the Kashmir problem for them. Serious minded Indians acknowledge that without Pakistan’s help Kashmir dispute cannot be settled. All this and still no movement, still no genuine engagement by India on Kashmir?
Musharraf realizes this. He understands the “tyranny” of the Indian political consensus over Kashmir that it is an “integral” part of Inida. He believes some within India are willing to go beyond the consensus. He believed in the former Prime Minister Vajpayee’s eagerness to move ahead as he does now in Manmohan Singh’s sincerity. Recently Musharraf talked about a solution of the Kashmir dispute involving the demilitarization of the area and a change in its status. Subsequently, perhaps to encourage Indians to substantively engage on Kashmir, the president identified some areas of possible Pakistani flexibility. The thrust of the various permutations and combinations he was putting forward was “take it forward in whichever way you want to, but please do!”
He basically identified the areas of possible “give” in Pakistan’s approach on Kashmir. The one new element he identified was joint Pakistan-Indian control of the Kashmir Valley.
Musharraf’s recent statement was significant in two respects. Since it comes from a khaki president the assumption is of establishment support for these ideas. While many are not new, elected prime ministers have been declared unpatriotic for minor deviations from the established policy. Two, any talk of joint control of the valley presupposes abundant mutual trust between the two countries. That indeed conveys an optimistic mindset for future Pakistan-India relations. Kashmir obviously belongs to no one it seems; but only to the Kashmiris.
For India and Pakistan an autonomous Kashmir can become the reason for a peaceful existence. Musharraf has taken no U-turn on Kashmir. Through his loud thinking Musharraf is merely trying to push the dialogue on Kashmir forward. The positive reaction of most Kashmiri leaders from the valley itself suggests the Kashmiris see him as their supporter.
He knows he can be on flexible ground on Kashmir; but not on a slippery slope. Indian officials are misreading his statements if they believe they indicate he is gradually abandoning support for the Kashmiris of the valley.
The solution to the Kashmir dispute is certainly not round the corner. However over the last few months Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has increasingly become more transparent and credible, with Kashmiris at its center and traditional and non-traditional diplomacy as the tool for engaging the Indians. For now this is the correct approach.
— Nasim Zehra is a fellow, Harvard University Asia Center 625 Mass Ave, Cambridge Mass.
