Americans go to the polls tomorrow while the world holds its breath, wondering who will lead the “only superpower” for the next four years. But does the American voter have a real choice?
Cynics and others who, for a variety of reasons, regard the democratic system with suspicion, claim that elections in all Western democracies, especially the United States, do not offer a genuine choice. If, by choice, one means wiping the slate clean and starting all over, democracies don’t do that. That is the business of revolutions. In a democracy, elections are seldom about complete change of course. They are about choosing new captains to guide the ship of state with greater prudence or boldness, as the case may be, and to avoid dangerous waters. In that sense tomorrow’s American election does offer a greater choice than four years ago.
Although President George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, come from the same privileged group, they do represent different views of the present and the future. Bush represents the traditional, conservative America of the hinterland. His supporters are the mainly white, Christian traditionalist Americans of blue-collar workers, farmers, suburbanites, small shopkeepers and businessmen. Bush also attracts a majority of Asians, especially those from China and Korea.
Kerry, on the other hand, represents the America of big cities and states open to the outside world. One could say that Democrats are found wherever there is water: The two coasts, the areas along the great lakes and cities close to the country’s large rivers. This is the America of downtowns, rusting industries, blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Arabs and other minorities. In fact nearly half of Kerry votes are expected to come from those minorities.
Bush is determined to use the United States’ power to reshape the world in what he and those close to him see as the country’s interest, especially by removing what he regards the centers of threat to American security. Kerry offers a more cautious approach, seeking a lower profile, and says he would make the US more of an international team player. Bush and Kerry are also poles apart when it comes to issues of culture. Bush presents himself as a missionary while Kerry is a secular politician. Bush stands for family values while many others who are not completely a part of what is seen as the American mainstream — gays and lesbians for example — support Kerry.
All in all, Bush represents the America of Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan while Kerry hopes to revive the America of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. In theory at least, Kerry has a better chance of winning. Of the 270 Electoral College votes that any candidate needs to win, Kerry will get almost a third from just two states — California and New York. Another third will come from the rust-belt states that almost always vote Democratic. Bush, however, needs to lose only one of the states he won in 2000 and he will be defeated. He thus has a harder job getting to the magic number of 270.
Nevertheless, the beauty of free elections is that no one knows the results in advance. The best result is to have a clear winner on the morning after the election. The worst is a fishtail result that could run into weeks, if not months, of legal disputes.
