For years, analysts and political pundits alike have been predicting Yasser Arafat’s demise. And for just as long, the Palestinian strongman has managed to prove them wrong. But news that the world’s most prominent terrorist-turned-statesman may be seriously ill has reopened concerns about the future of Palestinian politics.
There is indeed ample cause for concern. Whether now or later, Arafat’s departure from the political scene is certain to be bumpy.
Ever since his triumphant return to the Palestinian territories a decade ago, Arafat has put a premium on monopolizing power. He has accomplished this by elevating cronies to key governmental posts and systematically avoiding the nomination of a serious political successor.
It’s not to say that potential post-Arafat leaders don’t exist. A handful of political figures — Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and Gaza military strongman Mohammed Dahlan — are viable candidates to assume the Palestinian Authority’s top post. But none is likely to match Arafat’s popular appeal on the Palestinian street.
Nor do they have the political legitimacy to replicate Arafat’s unique status in Palestinian politics: President of the PA, chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization and head of Fatah, the PLO’s main political faction.
All this means that multiple succession crises, and battles for control over the PLO and Fatah, as well as the PA, could engulf the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Arafat’s absence also could reopen the major fault line in Palestinian politics — the struggle for power between the PLO’s old guard and the indigenous population of the West Bank and Gaza that waged the first intifada, which began in late 1987. In fact, the political tug of war between these two factions has been under way for some time, generally away from the public eye. Arafat’s departure could change all that, allowing rivalries to erupt into the open. If that happens, something like civil war in the West Bank and Gaza is not out of the question.
More worrying, the biggest beneficiaries of the post-Arafat era might be the most radical elements in Palestinian politics. After years of misrule, the Palestinian areas are poverty-stricken and underdeveloped. Cronyism and corruption have ravaged the Palestinian economy, and social services have all but disappeared.
As a result, radical Islamist groups such as Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have become the principal providers of education, medicine and other social services neglected by the PA, making them contenders for an assumption of power in the event of a succession crisis.
Palestinian policymakers are scrambling to prevent such an eventuality. Former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas already is deputy chairman of the PLO. Top officials appear to have nominated a ruling triumvirate of political heavyweights to take Arafat’s place — Abbas, Qurei and the chairman of the Palestinian National Council, Salim Zaanoun. Whether such quick fixes can prevent the PA’s slide into chaos is unknown.
Arafat’s absence may bolster hopes for a durable peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Leading Israeli politicians already have indicated they would be willing to negotiate with Arafat’s successor, provided that person commits to fighting terrorism.
Just as easily, however, Israel soon may be confronted with a much more ominous scenario: The emergence of a failed or rogue territory on its borders. In fact, policymakers in Tel Aviv have already begun planning for this. This year, the Israeli military carried out war games designed to simulate the passing of the PLO chairman and the likely results, from possible power grabs by Hamas and the PIJ to the eruption of an all-out Palestinian civil war. And Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s controversial proposal to withdraw from Gaza, recently approved by the country’s Parliament, is at least in part intended to insulate Israel from any chaos that might occur after Arafat’s demise.
These precautions underscore an unavoidable truth: The era of an Arafat-dominated Palestine is rapidly coming to a close. What will follow is anybody’s guess.
Like Israel, the United States should hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
