WASHINGTON, 8 November 2004 — Encouraged by the possibility of a more moderate Palestinian leadership replacing Yasser Arafat, the Bush administration is considering a new initiative to broker peace in the Middle East.
The death of the Palestinian leader would clear away what US officials have long cited as the chief obstacle to greater involvement by the Bush administration. But even with a new face on the Palestinian leadership, significant hurdles would remain, officials stressed.
Although the White House refused to deal with Arafat because of his failure to halt attacks on Israelis, it has supported the two Palestinian Authority leaders, Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, who have emerged in recent days as Arafat’s most likely successors.
Arafat, 75, remained in a Paris hospital on Saturday. Palestinian officials held meetings in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to display unity in the absence of the man who has been their “rais,’’ or undisputed leader, for decades.
With the US election over, Arab and European allies are exerting pressure on President Bush to step up what most view as a stalled US peace effort. British Prime Minister Tony Blair said this week that a Middle East settlement should be the highest priority of Bush’s second term.
Foreign diplomats said the public and private comments of Bush administration officials even before the election had indicated that they intended to put new energy into the peace effort if they won re-election, in part to build support among Arabs for its missions in Iraq and elsewhere in the region. In his first post-election news conference, Bush vowed on Thursday that “we will continue to work for a free Palestinian state that’s at peace with Israel.’’
But US officials said that while the administration is eager for a new chance, it faces a tough task.
Arafat’s death could spark violence, and radical groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad may challenge more moderate leaders for control, officials said. In addition, the power of the Palestinian central government has waned in recent years, and moderate new leaders must show they can control the population, US officials said.
“I would warn against the perception that there’s a ripe opportunity, ready for the plucking,’’ said one US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “This is something that’s going to take time, even after Arafat’s gone.’’
The official said that to best show support for moderate Palestinian forces, US officials would move in concert with Arab and European allies, and the United Nations. US officials will be discussing the issues in a series of meetings with European and Arab leaders beginning this month.
“This kind of thing has to be done carefully, and more often with the help of the international community,’’ the official said. “US support is a double-edged sword in the Arab world, and especially in the Palestinian territory.’’ One Western diplomat, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said there had been “clear signs that the administration is now giving this a top priority.’’
For nearly two years, US diplomats have been promoting an initiative known as the “road map’’ that calls for a series of increasing concessions by each side. But both the Israelis and the Palestinians have balked at the opening steps of the process, and it is widely seen as moribund.
While Washington has not yet decided what kind of proposal to advance, diplomats said that one immediate goal would be to strengthen the Palestinian moderates, especially by encouraging Israeli concessions that are aimed at winning the new leaders greater support from their people. That effort might include economic aid to improve the lives of impoverished Palestinians.
Another immediate US objective would be to advance an international effort to give moderate Palestinians control of Gaza following Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s planned withdrawal of Israeli forces. Resistance from militant groups has prevented efforts by Palestinian allies, such as Egypt and Jordan, to strengthen the moderates.
Several senior Israeli officials have said that their government’s failure to support Abbas more when he was prime minister was a mistake that had hurt the moderates’ cause. One prominent Israeli said any new effort would require painful concessions to the Palestinians. “In the post-Arafat era, it will be much easier to resume negotiations,’’ David Kimche, a former director-general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, wrote in a commentary in weekend editions of the Jerusalem Post. “The key, however, will be our willingness to give up territory we conquered in 1967, minus the enclaves in which 70 percent to 80 percent of the settlers live. Without our acceptance of this fact, it will be as difficult to make peace with the successors of Arafat as it has been with the ‘rais’ himself.’’
A key question is whether Bush — widely considered wary of the difficult Middle East peace issue — will take a different view in the aftermath of his election victory. Some analysts have predicted that Bush will be less likely to worry that administration pressure on Israel would alienate evangelical US supporters, who are strongly pro-Israel and an important part of his political base.
If Palestinian moderates initially are successful, “there will be more pressure on the administration, and more motivation by the administration, to do more,’’ said Robert Malley, who was special assistant to President Clinton on Israeli-Palestinian issues.
