Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump

Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump
People buy groceries at a Walmart Superstore in Secaucus, New Jersey, on July 11, 2024. (AP/File)
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Updated 10 November 2024
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Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump

Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump
  • In returning Trump to power, tens of millions of Americans expressed their confidence that he can restore the low prices and economic stability they recall from his first term
  • Inflation has since plummeted and is nearly back to normal. Yet Americans are frustrated over still-high prices

WASHINGTON: Fed up with high prices and unimpressed with an economy that by just about any measure is a healthy one, Americans demanded change when they voted for president.
They could get it.
President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to topple many of the Biden administration’s economic policies. Trump campaigned on promises to impose huge tariffs on foreign goods, slash taxes on individuals and businesses and deport millions of undocumented immigrants working in the United States.
With their votes, tens of millions of Americans expressed their confidence that Trump can restore the low prices and economic stability they recall from his first term — at least until the COVID-19 recession of 2020 paralyzed the economy and then a powerful recovery sent inflation soaring. Inflation has since plummeted and is nearly back to normal. Yet Americans are frustrated over still-high prices.
“His track record proved to be, on balance, positive, and people look back now and think: ‘Oh, OK. Let’s try that again,’ ” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former White House economic adviser, director of the Congressional Budget Office and now president of the conservative American Action Forum think tank.
Since Election Day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has skyrocketed more than 1,700 points, largely on expectations that tax cuts and a broad loosening of regulations will accelerate economic growth and swell corporate profits.
Maybe they will. Yet many economists warn that Trump’s plans are likely to worsen the inflation he’s vowed to eradicate, drive up the federal debt and eventually slow growth.
Trump policies could boost inflation
The Peterson Institute for International Economics, a leading think tank, has estimated that Trump’s policies would slash the US gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — by between $1.5 trillion and $6.4 trillion through 2028. Peterson also estimated that Trump’s proposals would drive prices sharply higher within two years: Inflation, which would otherwise come in at 1.9 percent in 2026, would instead jump to between 6 percent and 9.3 percent if Trump’s policies were enacted in full.
Last month, 23 Nobel-winning economists signed a letter warning that a Trump administration “will lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.”
“Among the most important determinants of economic success,” they wrote, “are the rule of law and economic and political certainty, and Trump threatens all of these.’’
Trump is inheriting an economy that, despite frustratingly high prices, looks fundamentally strong. Growth came in at a healthy 2.8 percent annual rate from July through September. Unemployment is 4.1 percent — quite low by historic standards.
Among wealthy countries, only Spain will experience faster growth this year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast. The United States is the economic “envy of the world,” the Economist magazine recently declared.
The Federal Reserve is so confident that US inflation is slowing toward its 2 percent target that it cut its benchmark rate in September and again this week.
Americans are deeply unhappy with prices
Consumers, though, still bear the scars of the inflationary surge. Prices on average are still 19 percent higher than they were before inflation began to accelerate in 2021. Grocery bills and rent hikes are still causing hardships, especially for lower-income households. Though inflation-adjusted hourly wages have risen for more than two years, they’re still below where they were before President Joe Biden took office.
Voters took their frustration to the polls. According to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide, 3 in 10 voters said their family was “falling behind’’ financially, up from 2 in 10 in 2020. About 9 in 10 voters were at least somewhat worried about the cost of groceries, 8 in 10 about the cost of health care, housing or gasoline.
“I don’t think it’s either deep or complicated,’’ Holtz-Eakin said. “The real problem is the Biden-Harris team made people worse off, and they were very angry about it, and we saw the result.’’
The irony is that mainstream economists fear Trump’s remedies will make price levels worse, not better.
Tariffs are a tax on consumers
The centerpiece of Trump’s economic agenda is taxing imports. It’s an approach that he asserts will shrink America’s trade deficits and force other countries to grant concessions to the United States. In his first term, he increased tariffs on Chinese goods, and he’s now promised much more of the same: Trump wants to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60 percent and impose a “universal’’ tax of 10 percent or 20 percent on all other imports.
Trump insists that other countries pay tariffs. In fact, American companies pay them — and then typically pass along their higher costs to their customers via higher prices. Which is why taxing imports is normally inflationary. Worse, other countries usually retaliate with tariffs on American goods, thereby hurting US exporters.
Kimberly Clausing and Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute have calculated that Trump’s proposed 60 percent tax on Chinese imports and his high-end 20 percent tariff on everything else would impose an after-tax loss on a typical American household of $2,600 annually.
The economic damage would likely spread globally. Researchers at Capital Economics have calculated that a 10 percent US tariff would hurt Mexico hardest. Germany and China would also suffer. All of that depends, of course, on whether he actually does what he said during the campaign.
Deportations would rattle the US job market
Trump has threatened to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, potentially undermining one of the factors that allowed the United States to tame inflation without falling into recession.
The Congressional Budget Office reported that net immigration — arrivals minus departures — reached 3.3 million in 2023. Employers needed the new arrivals. After the economy rebounded from the pandemic recession, companies struggled to hire enough workers, especially because so many native-born baby boomers were retiring.
Immigrants filled the gap. Over the past four years, 73 percent of those who entered the labor force were foreign born.
Economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project found that by raising the supply of workers, the influx of immigrants allowed the United States to generate jobs without overheating and accelerating inflation.
The Peterson Institute calculates that the deportation of all 8.3 million immigrants believed to be working illegally in the United States would slash US GDP by $5.1 trillion and raise inflation by 9.1 percentage points by 2028
Big tax cuts could swell the federal deficit
Trump has proposed extending 2017 tax cuts for individuals that were set to expire after 2025 and restoring tax breaks for businesses that were being reduced. He’s also called for ending taxes on Social Security benefits, overtime pay and tips as well as further reducing the corporate income tax rate for US manufacturers.
The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that Trump’s tax policies would i ncrease budget deficits by $5.8 trillion over 10 years. Even if the tax cuts generated enough growth to recoup some of the lost tax revenue, Penn Wharton calculated, deficits would still increase by more than $4.1 trillion from 2025 through 2034.
The federal budget is already out of balance. An aging population has required increased spending on Social Security and Medicare. And past tax cuts have shrunk government revenue.
Holtz-Eakin said he worries that Trump has little appetite for taking the steps — cuts to Social Security and Medicare, tax increases or some combination — needed to bring the federal budget meaningfully closer to balance.
“It’s not going to happen,” Holtz-Eakin said.


South Korea president declares emergency martial law

South Korea president declares emergency martial law
Updated 03 December 2024
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South Korea president declares emergency martial law

South Korea president declares emergency martial law
  • The surprise move comes as the ruling and opposition parties continue to bicker over next year’s budget bill
  • Opposition MPs last week approved a significantly downsized budget plan through a parliamentary committee

SEOUL: South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday declared emergency martial law, saying the step was necessary to protect the country from “communist forces” amid parliamentary wrangling over a budget bill.
“To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements... I hereby declare emergency martial law,” Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.
“With no regard for the livelihoods of the people, the opposition party has paralyzed governance solely for the sake of impeachments, special investigations, and shielding their leader from justice,” he added.
The surprise move comes as Yoon’s People Power Party and the main opposition Democratic Party continue to bicker over next year’s budget bill. Opposition MPs last week approved a significantly downsized budget plan through a parliamentary committee.
“Our National Assembly has become a haven for criminals, a den of legislative dictatorship that seeks to paralyze the judicial and administrative systems and overturn our liberal democratic order,” Yoon said.
He accused opposition lawmakers of cutting “all key budgets essential to the nation’s core functions, such as combatting drug crimes and maintaining public security... turning the country into a drug haven and a state of public safety chaos.”
Yoon went on to label the opposition, which holds a majority in the 300-member parliament, as “anti-state forces intent on overthrowing the regime” and called his decision “inevitable.”
“I will restore the country to normalcy by getting rid of anti-state forces as soon as possible.”


South Korean parliament votes to defy president by lifting his declaration of martial law

South Korean parliament votes to defy president by lifting his declaration of martial law
Updated 50 min 49 sec ago
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South Korean parliament votes to defy president by lifting his declaration of martial law

South Korean parliament votes to defy president by lifting his declaration of martial law
  • Hours later, parliament voted to lift the declaration, with the National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik declaring that lawmakers “will protect democracy with the people”
  • Woo called for police and military personnel to withdraw from the Assembly’s grounds

SEOUL: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law late Tuesday, vowing to eliminate “anti-state” forces as he struggles against an opposition that controls the country’s parliament and that he accuses of sympathizing with communist North Korea.
Hours later, parliament voted to lift the declaration, with the National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik declaring that lawmakers “will protect democracy with the people.” Woo called for police and military personnel to withdraw from the Assembly’s grounds.
The president’s surprising move harkened back to an era of authoritarian leaders that the country has not seen since the 1980s, and it was immediately denounced by the opposition and the leader of Yoon’s own conservative party.
Following Yoon’s announcement, South Korea’s military proclaimed that parliament and other political gatherings that could cause “social confusion” would be suspended, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
The military also said that the country’s striking doctors should return to work within 48 hours, Yonhap said. Thousands of doctors have been striking for months over government plans to expand the number of students at medical schools. The military said anyone who violates the decree could be arrested without a warrant.
Under South Korean law, martial law can be lifted with a majority vote in the parliament, where the opposition Democratic Party holds a majority.
Soon after the declaration, the National Assembly speaker called on his YouTube channel for all lawmakers to gather at the Assembly building. He urged military and law enforcement personnel to “remain calm and hold their positions.
All 190 lawmakers who participated in the vote supported the lifting of martial law. Television footage showed soldiers who had been stationed at parliament leaving the site after the vote.
Earlier, TV showed police officers blocking the entrance of the Assembly and helmeted soldiers carrying rifles in front of the building.
An Associated Press photographer saw at least three helicopters, likely from the military, that landed inside the Assembly grounds, while two or three helicopters circled above the site.
The leader of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party, Han Dong-hoon, called the decision to impose martial law “wrong” and vowed to “stop it with the people.” Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 presidential election, called Yoon’s announcement “illegal and unconstitutional.”
Yoon said during a televised speech that martial law would help “rebuild and protect” the country from “falling into the depths of national ruin.” He said he would “eradicate pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional democratic order.”
“I will eliminate anti-state forces as quickly as possible and normalize the country,” he said, while asking the people to believe in him and tolerate “some inconveniences.”
Yoon — whose approval rating has dipped in recent months — has struggled to push his agenda against an opposition-controlled parliament since taking office in 2022.
Yoon’s party has been locked in an impasse with the liberal opposition over next year’s budget bill. The opposition has also attempted to pass motions to impeach three top prosecutors, including the chief of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office, in what the conservatives have called a vendetta against their criminal investigations of Lee, who has been seen as the favorite for the next presidential election in 2027 in opinion polls.
Yoon has also dismissed calls for independent investigations into scandals involving his wife and top officials, drawing quick, strong rebukes from his political rivals.
Yoon’s move was the first declaration of martial law since the country’s democratization in 1987. The country’s last previous martial law was in October 1979.


King Charles welcomes Emir of Qatar as state visit begins

King Charles welcomes Emir of Qatar as state visit begins
Updated 03 December 2024
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King Charles welcomes Emir of Qatar as state visit begins

King Charles welcomes Emir of Qatar as state visit begins
  • The emir and his wife Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al-Thani arrived at Horse Guards Parade
  • Joined by Prince William and Princess of Wales, Catherine

LONDON: King Charles and Keir Starmer welcomed Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, for a state visit to Britain on Tuesday.

The emir and his wife Sheikha Jawaher bint Hamad bin Suhaim Al-Thani arrived by car at Horse Guards Parade in London with Prince William and his wife Catherine, who was marking her return to formal state visit duties after undergoing preventative chemotherapy for cancer.

Charles, who is continuing his own treatment for cancer, and the emir inspected the 1st Battalion Welsh Guards while a military band played.

The reception was to be followed by a trip to Westminster where the emir was set to address both chambers of the British Houses of Parliament.

 


Trump says he’ll attend Notre Dame Cathedral reopening celebration in Paris this weekend

Trump says he’ll attend Notre Dame Cathedral reopening celebration in Paris this weekend
Updated 03 December 2024
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Trump says he’ll attend Notre Dame Cathedral reopening celebration in Paris this weekend

Trump says he’ll attend Notre Dame Cathedral reopening celebration in Paris this weekend
  • Trump announced that he will be among them in a post on his Truth Social site Monday evening
  • “It is an honor to announce that I will be traveling to Paris, France, on Saturday to attend the re-opening of the Magnificent and Historic Notre Dame Cathedral,” he wrote

NEW YORK: President-elect Donald Trump will attend the reopening celebration for Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris this weekend, his first foreign trip since the election.
The cathedral is set to reopen Saturday after more than five years of reconstruction following a devastating fire in 2019 that engulfed and nearly destroyed the soaring Paris landmark. The ceremonies being held Saturday and Sunday will be high-security affairs, with about 50 heads of state and government expected to attend.
Trump announced that he will be among them in a post on his Truth Social site Monday evening.
“It is an honor to announce that I will be traveling to Paris, France, on Saturday to attend the re-opening of the Magnificent and Historic Notre Dame Cathedral, which has been fully restored after a devastating fire five years ago,” he wrote. “President Emmanuel Macron has done a wonderful job ensuring that Notre Dame has been restored to its full level of glory, and even more so. It will be a very special day for all!”
The trip will be Trump’s first abroad since he won November’s presidential election. He traveled to Scotland and Ireland in May 2023, as a candidate, to visit his local golf courses.
Trump was president in 2019 when a massive fire engulfed Notre Dame, collapsing its spire and threatening to destroy one of the world’s greatest architectural treasures, known for its mesmerizing stained glass.
Trump watched the inferno in horror, along with the rest of the world.
“So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris,” he wrote on what was then named Twitter, offering his advice to the city.
“Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!” he wrote.
French officials appeared to respond shortly after, noting that “All means” were being used to extinguish the flames, “except for water-bombing aircrafts which, if used, could lead to the collapse of the entire structure of the cathedral.”
Trump also spoke with Macron and Pope Francis at the time to offer his condolences and said he had offered them “the help of our great experts on renovation and construction.”
Trump and Macron have had a complicated relationship.
During Trump’s first term in office, Macron proved to be among the world leaders most adept at managing the American president’s whims as he tried to develop a personal connection built in no small part on flattery.
Macron was the guest of honor at Trump’s first state dinner and Trump traveled to France several times. But the relationship soured as Trump’s term progressed and Macron criticized him for questioning the need for NATO and raising doubts about America’s commitment to the mutual-defense pact.
As he ran for a second term this year, Trump often mocked Macron on the campaign trail, imitating his accent and threatening to impose steep tariffs on wine and champagne bottles shipped to the US if France tried to tax American companies.
After Trump won another term last month, Macron rushed to win favor with the president-elect. He was among the first global leaders to congratulate Trump — even before The Associated Press called the race in his favor — and beat UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to the punch in delivering a congratulatory phone call.
“Congratulations, President @realDonaldTrump,” Macron posted on X early on Nov 6. “Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”
Macron and other European leaders are trying to persuade Trump not to abandon America’s support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s nearly three-year invasion. European leaders hope to convince Trump that a victory by Russia would be viewed as a defeat for the US — and for the incoming president, by extension — hoping to sell him on the need to pursue an end to the war more favorable to Kyiv than he might otherwise seek.
Trump over the weekend announced that he intends to nominate real estate developer Charles Kushner, the father of his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to serve as ambassador to France. The elder Kushner was pardoned by Trump in December 2020 after pleading guilty years earlier to tax evasion and making illegal campaign donations.
The reopening of Notre Dame will be an elaborate, multi-day celebration, beginning Saturday.
Paris Archbishop Laurent Ulrich will preside at a reopening service that afternoon, banging on Notre Dame’s shuttered doors with his staff to reopen them, according to the cathedral’s website.
The archbishop will also symbolically reawaken Notre Dame’s thunderous grand organ. The fire that melted the cathedral’s lead roofing coated the huge instrument in toxic dust. Its 8,000 pipes have been painstakingly disassembled, cleaned and retuned.
Macron will attend and address the VIP guests.
After the service, opera singers Pretty Yende, from South Africa, and Julie Fuchs, from France; Chinese pianist Lang Lang; Paris-born cellist Yo-Yo Ma; Benin-born singer Angelique Kidjo; Lebanese singer Hiba Tawaji and others will perform at a concert Saturday evening, according to the show’s broadcaster, France Télévisions.
On Sunday morning, the Paris archbishop will lead an inaugural Mass and consecration of the new altar.
Nearly 170 bishops from France and other countries will join the celebration, along with priests from all 106 parishes in the Paris diocese. The Mass will be followed by a “fraternal buffet” for the needy.
Ile de la Cité, where the cathedral sits in the middle of the River Seine, will be blocked off to tourists for the events. A public viewing area with room for 40,000 spectators will be set up along the Seine’s southern bank.


Police crack encrypted messaging service used by criminals, Europol says

Police crack encrypted messaging service used by criminals, Europol says
Updated 03 December 2024
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Police crack encrypted messaging service used by criminals, Europol says

Police crack encrypted messaging service used by criminals, Europol says
  • The messaging service called MATRIX was discovered on the phone of a criminal
  • “The messages that were intercepted are linked to serious crimes,” Europol said

AMSTERDAM: An encrypted messaging service that was used for international drug and arms trafficking has been taken down by European authorities, Europol said on Tuesday.
The messaging service called MATRIX was discovered on the phone of a criminal convicted for the murder of Dutch celebrity crime reporter Peter R. de Vries in 2021, Europol said.
A large-scale investigation by the Dutch and French authorities managed to intercept the messaging service and monitor activity for three months, leading to the deciphering of more than 2.3 million messages in 33 languages.
“The messages that were intercepted are linked to serious crimes such as international drug trafficking, arms trafficking, and money laundering,” Europol said.
“Authorities were able to monitor the messages from possible criminals, which will now be used to support other investigations.”
The main servers in France and Germany were taken down, with one suspect arrested in France and two in Spain. Homes were also searched in Lithuania, Europol said.