Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification fuels 4.4% growth forecast for 2025: ICAEW

Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification fuels 4.4% growth forecast for 2025: ICAEW
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales highlighted that this marks a rebound from the 1.4 percent growth expected in 2024, supported by a 5.8 percent increase in the non-oil sector. Shutterstock
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Updated 04 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification fuels 4.4% growth forecast for 2025: ICAEW

Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification fuels 4.4% growth forecast for 2025: ICAEW
  • Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales said it marks a rebound from 1.4% growth expected in 202
  • OECD projects Kingdom’s GDP growth at 3.6% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s economy is forecast to grow 4.4 percent in 2025, driven by strong non-oil sector momentum and easing oil production cuts, according to the projections.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales highlighted that this marks a rebound from the 1.4 percent growth expected in 2024, supported by a 5.8 percent increase in the non-oil sector. 

Similarly, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development projects Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product growth at 3.6 percent in 2025 and 3.8 percent in 2026. 

ICAEW emphasized the non-oil sector as a key growth driver across the Gulf Cooperation Council, with industries like tourism, real estate, and finance at the forefront.

Regional outlook

GCC economies are expected to grow at an annual rate of 4 percent over the next five years, more than double that of advanced economies. 

Scott Livermore, ICAEW’s economic advisor, said: “The GCC’s projected 4 percent growth in 2025 highlights the success of the region’s diversification efforts amid global challenges.” 

He added: “Managing capacity constraints in these high-growth sectors and navigating global uncertainties will be critical to sustaining long-term economic stability.”

Strong investments in construction, tourism, and infrastructure, coupled with rising oil production from 2025, are anticipated to bolster growth. 

Saudi Arabia’s economy is undergoing a significant transformation, with Vision 2030 spearheading efforts to reduce oil dependence and diversify economic activities.

Reforms, including regulatory changes and infrastructure investments, are strengthening non-oil industries and attracting both domestic and foreign investments. This transformation is positioning the Kingdom for long-term economic stability, supported by growing oil production and a thriving non-oil sector.

The GCC region is also projected to experience robust growth, driven by government-led diversification initiatives that are accelerating economic expansion.

According to an ICAEW report, the regional Purchasing Managers’ Index remains in expansionary territory, indicating sustained momentum in non-energy sectors. This growth is expected to result in a 4 percent expansion in industries such as tourism, real estate, and finance in both 2024 and 2025.

These developments highlight the successful implementation of strategies aimed at reducing oil dependence and fostering sustainable, diversified economic growth across the region.

Oil production recovery 

ICAEW projects that Saudi Arabia’s oil production will rise by 3.4 percent in 2025, recovering from 2024’s production cuts, which reduced output to around 9 million barrels per day.

This rebound is expected to boost GDP growth in oil-dependent economies such as Kuwait and Oman. However, the region faces challenges from the global shift toward cleaner energy and the development of renewable projects, which add complexities to long-term oil strategies. 

OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have been withholding a combined 5.86 million barrels per day of oil output — around 5.7 percent of global demand — through a series of cuts initiated in 2022 to stabilize the oil market.

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Dec. 5, with expectations of extending the current output cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025 to maintain market support.  

Inflation and interest rates

ICAEW anticipates that interest rates in the GCC, which have been aligned with the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, will continue to ease into 2025.

After two years of aggressively tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, GCC countries lowered rates by 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November. 

While this easing of interest rates is expected to stimulate lending, it has also contributed to rising real estate prices, as lower borrowing costs make it easier for individuals and businesses to secure financing. 

However, the effects on the real estate market and corporate lending have been mixed. The lower rates have fueled increased demand, particularly in major cities like Riyadh, which has led to higher property prices and rents.

In Saudi Arabia, rental prices have been a key driver of inflation, particularly as the growing population and urbanization have intensified the demand for housing. As a result, inflation is forecast to rise from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 2.3 percent in 2025, with rents expected to remain a significant contributor, according to ICAEW.

State Street Global Advisors forecasts a “soft landing” in 2025, with the economy growing gradually without a sharp downturn, balancing inflation control with sustainable growth. This scenario aims to avoid major negative impacts such as high unemployment or a sharp decline in consumer spending.

Debt levels and fiscal flexibility

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is projected to persist, with ICAEW estimating a shortfall of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2024. However, the country's low government debt levels provide flexibility to fund key Vision 2030 initiatives and infrastructure projects.

The Kingdom’s 2025 budget, approved in early November, forecasts revenues of SR1.18 trillion and expenditures of SR1.28 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SR101 billion. 

These deficits are within manageable, planned levels, strategically designed to support the government’s expansionary spending on key projects aimed at diversifying the economy.

Saudi Arabia also maintains a strong credit rating from international agencies, reflecting its fiscal stability and investor confidence, which bolsters its capacity to finance these expansionary projects. 

Across the GCC, most countries are expected to maintain manageable debt levels, with sovereign wealth funds and other financial tools helping bridge budget gaps. 

According to State Street Global Advisors, the GCC’s economic diversification efforts have led to a significant increase in fixed income issuance, with outstanding bonds surpassing $1.35 trillion by September, more than tripling since 2019.

Notable growth in local currency bonds, sukuk, and green bonds reflects the region’s commitment to economic diversification and sustainability.

GCC bonds have outperformed the broader JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, offering lower volatility and drawdowns compared to other emerging market bonds, making them attractive to investors, according to their report.  

Capital market expansion

The GCC is undergoing a significant transformation in its capital markets, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront.

According to State Street Global Advisors, GCC equities have outperformed the broader emerging markets index over the past decade, despite global challenges. This outperformance is attributed to the region’s economic resilience and successful diversification efforts.

GCC equities also exhibit a low correlation with oil prices and both developed and emerging markets, offering distinct sectoral exposure. The stability of dollar-pegged currencies further reduces currency risk, making GCC equities an attractive investment in volatile global markets.

Saudi Arabia’s stock market has grown to become the seventh-largest globally, reflecting the strength of the real economy.

Key reforms in the sector, including new regulatory frameworks, have increased liquidity and market accessibility.

Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the expansion of local equity offerings have been pivotal milestones. Additionally, the introduction of sukuk and green bonds has diversified the investment landscape, drawing international investors.

The ongoing integration of Saudi capital markets with global markets, coupled with Vision 2030 reforms, has positioned the Kingdom as an attractive destination for international investors, signaling a shift toward greater economic diversification and sustainability.


Al-Habtoor Group plans Lebanon comeback, pending security guarantees

Al-Habtoor Group plans Lebanon comeback, pending security guarantees
Updated 42 sec ago
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Al-Habtoor Group plans Lebanon comeback, pending security guarantees

Al-Habtoor Group plans Lebanon comeback, pending security guarantees
  • AHG chairman emphasizes the importance of stability for future growth

RIYADH: Al-Habtoor Group is moving forward with plans to reopen its five-story mall in Beirut and relaunch the Habtoorland amusement park in Jamhour, contingent on Lebanon’s government delivering the promised security and stability measures.

In an interview with Arab News, AHG Chairman Khalaf Al-Habtoor emphasized that restoring the mall and amusement park remains a key priority for the group. However, these initiatives depend entirely on the assurances of safety and governance from Lebanon’s new leadership.

“We have a different management now overseeing the mall. They are waiting only for the implementation of plans by the president and the prime minister. I fully believe in the president, even though we haven’t met, and I believe in the prime minister,” Al-Habtoor stated.

On Jan. 9, Lebanon elected former army commander Joseph Aoun president, and on Jan. 13, appointed Nawaf Salam, the chief judge of the International Court of Justice, prime minister.

Al-Habtoor expressed his belief that the newly installed leaders possess the potential to unite the country and initiate the critical reforms needed for Lebanon’s economic revival.

Despite Lebanon’s long-standing political instability, including the devastating Beirut Port explosion, AHG has kept its facilities operational, ensuring that its employees retained their jobs throughout turbulent times.

“We don’t close our hotels. Even when we closed (temporarily), we didn’t terminate anyone. During the war, even after the port explosion, we did not release any of our employees. We paid them their salaries because they are part of us, like a family, like partners with us,” Al-Habtoor explained.

He further highlighted the group’s long-standing commitment to Lebanon, emphasizing its role in creating jobs and fostering local development. “We have been working for a very long time in Lebanon, and we created a lot of projects to create jobs for our people there, for our families—I call them. The Lebanese are part of us.”

While acknowledging the political challenges facing the country, the AHG chairman expressed optimism about Lebanon’s future under its new leadership, stressing the importance of public support for the government’s agenda. 

“If the Lebanese people want Lebanon to compete with successful countries, they have to support the president and the prime minister. Lebanon needs a lot of work, renovation, and fixing,” he noted. 

Al-Habtoor pointed to security as the linchpin for any future investments in Lebanon. “Nobody will invest a penny unless there is 100 percent safety and security in the country,” he asserted.

The AHG chairman said if the new president and prime minister manage to establish their authority within the next three months, he will personally return to Lebanon to oversee the group’s projects.

Although AHG has explored new ventures, including the establishment of a production studio, political instability had previously delayed such plans. 

Al-Habtoor reaffirmed his commitment to reconsidering these opportunities once Lebanon’s security situation stabilizes: “I will definitely reconsider, but the country’s shift to safety and security remains priority No. 1.”

The UAE-based businessman also stressed the necessity of clean, well-vetted leadership for Lebanon’s Cabinet. “They should not let any person from another country be involved,” he emphasized.

Despite these challenges, Al-Habtoor expressed hope for Lebanon’s revival under its new leadership, reflecting confidence in their sincerity and commitment to reform. 

“I have hope from these people. I believe in these genuine leaders and their honesty. If they deliver what they promised, I will be there, with my feet on the ground,” he said.

Reflecting on his personal connection to Lebanon, Al-Habtoor shared fond memories of time spent in the country. “My family and I spent a lot of time in Lebanon. We have our house in Jamhour, and we invested in many things. I have a lot of friends there. I miss them, and they miss me,” he said.

Looking ahead, AHG is also set to expand internationally, with the upcoming launch of the 200-key Al-Habtoor Palace luxury hotel in Budapest, scheduled for Feb. 3. The company is also pursuing ongoing projects in Dubai, which Al-Habtoor referred to as “the jewel of the world.”

He added that in Dubai, everyone can sleep and relax, fully assured of their safety and security. “This is what we need in Lebanon,” Al-Habtoor concluded.


Oil Updates — crude rises as US inventory decline heightens supply concerns

Oil Updates — crude rises as US inventory decline heightens supply concerns
Updated 24 min 8 sec ago
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Oil Updates — crude rises as US inventory decline heightens supply concerns

Oil Updates — crude rises as US inventory decline heightens supply concerns

SINGAPORE: Oil prices gained for a second session on Thursday, supported by worries over supply amid US sanctions on Russia, a larger-than-forecast fall in US crude oil stocks, and an improving global demand outlook.

Brent crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $82.28 per barrel by 7:46 a.m. Saudi time, after rising 2.6 percent in the previous session to their highest since July 26 last year.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $80.32 a barrel, after gaining 3.3 percent on Wednesday to their highest since July 19.

US crude oil stocks fell last week to their lowest since April 2022 as exports rose and imports fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

The 2 million-barrel draw was more than the 992,000-barrel fall analysts had expected in a Reuters poll.

The drop added to a tightened global supply outlook after the US imposed broader sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers. The new US sanction measures have sent Moscow’s top customers scouring the globe for replacement barrels, while shipping rates have surged too.

The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed hundreds of additional sanctions targeting Russia’s military industrial base and evasion schemes.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which have been curtailing output collectively over the past two years, are likely to be cautious about increasing supply despite the recent price rally, said Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston.

“The producer group has had its optimism dashed so frequently over the past year that it is likely to err on the side of caution before beginning the cut-easing process,” Johnston said.

Limiting oil’s gains, Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, according to an official.

On the demand front, global oil expanded by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first two weeks in 2025 from the same period a year earlier, slightly below expectations, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

The analysts expect oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd year-on-year in coming weeks, driven by heightened travel activities in India, where a huge festival gathering is taking place, as well as by travel for Lunar New Year celebrations in China at the end of January.

Some investors are also eying potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve before the end of the year following data on an easing in core US inflation — which could lend support to economic activities and energy consumption. 


OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day

OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day
Updated 15 January 2025
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OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day

OPEC forecasts 2026 oil demand growth of 1.43m barrels a day

LONDON: OPEC on Wednesday predicted that global oil demand in 2026 will increase at a rate similar to this year’s growth.

However, the organization lowered its 2024 demand projection for the sixth time, citing ongoing economic weakness in China, the world’s largest oil importer.

The 2026 forecast aligns with OPEC’s long-term view that global oil consumption will continue to rise over the next two decades. This contrasts with the International Energy Agency, which expects oil demand to peak within this decade as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC projected that oil demand will increase by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, a growth rate nearly identical to the 1.45 million bpd expected for this year. The 2026 forecast marks the first time OPEC has provided a projection for that year in its monthly update.

OPEC noted that transportation fuels will be the primary driver of oil demand growth in 2026, with air travel expected to continue expanding. Both international and domestic flights are expected to see steady increases, according to the report.

The report also revised its 2024 demand growth forecast down to 1.5 million bpd, compared to the 1.61 million bpd forecast in the previous month. This marks the sixth consecutive reduction for 2024, following an initial forecast of 2.25 million bpd in July 2024.

OPEC’s demand outlook remains at the higher end of industry expectations.

Earlier on Wednesday, the IEA forecasted a slower pace of global oil demand growth in 2025, predicting an increase of 1.05 million bpd.


Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University

Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University
Updated 15 January 2025
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Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University

Hexagon invests in future mining talent through partnership with King Saud University

RIYADH: Industrial technology company Hexagon has made a significant investment in King Saud University to help train the next generation of mining talent in the Middle East, according to a top official.

Speaking to Arab News on the second day of the Future Minerals Forum, which is being held in Riyadh from Jan. 14 to 16, Dave Goddard, executive vice president of mining at Hexagon, explained that the training would utilize advanced digital tools and software.

The agreement, finalized during the forum, builds on Hexagon’s ongoing collaboration with mining ventures in the region. This follows a landmark deal in 2024 with Saudi Arabian Mining Co. to launch the region’s first-of-its-kind digital mine.

The initiative also aligns with the Kingdom’s broader efforts to position mining as the third pillar of its industrial economy.

“One of the things that’s important for us is to give back to the mining community and ensure the long-term viability of the mining industry,” Goddard said. “And the only way that happens is people retire every year, and college students come into the environment as well.”

He continued: “So, what we’ve done is we’ve made a partnership with the universities in order to provide them some digital tools that the mining companies use, so that when they graduate, and they go into industry, they are already digital natives. They already have the skills and attributes necessary to enter into the digital mining realm. And so that’s what we’re really doing: investing in the future of mining by investing in the future leaders of mining.”

Goddard also elaborated on the firm’s partnership with Ma’aden.

“We have a partnership agreement with Ma’aden, our primary customer here in Saudi Arabia. And we have a partnership with them to build a digital mine, where we’re providing the tools, materials, and software to digitalize their mining operations in order for them to be an optimal miner and a world-class miner, which they currently are,” he said.

Regarding the mining process, Goddard described it as breaking down large rocks into smaller pieces to extract valuable minerals or compounds.

“You have a mine plan that has a digital representation of what that ore looks like inside the ground, and then you have a digital representation of the truck that is carrying that mineral around, and you have a digital representation of the drill that is drilling through the material,” Goddard explained.

“When you take that software and those digitalization parameters, what you’re really doing is reflecting the real world in a digital model and allowing yourself to model an optimal process to extract that real-world material in a digital manner,” he added.

He also mentioned the company’s drill assist product, which helps equipment drill 30 percent faster than a human.

“In terms of a fleet management system, we can provide the same material flow rate using 20% fewer trucks if you use our fleet management system. So, if you think about it, there’s not only the cost savings, but there’s also an energy savings because you’re using less material,” Goddard said.

“And that energy savings correlates to less impact on the environment, a lower carbon emission, and a smaller carbon footprint. So, we help our mining customers address not only their operational challenges but also their sustainability challenges as well,” he added.

Goddard further highlighted how mining influences global wealth and standards of living.

“Knowing that the world around us would not exist without mining and the natural materials that mining provides, as the wealth of the world grows and people enjoy richer lifestyles, demand for mineral resources will increase. And we want to be in the middle of that, providing the tools necessary to optimize the extraction of those resources,” he said.

He also discussed Hexagon's approach to providing digital solutions for mining operations.

“What we have are two different portfolios,” Goddard explained. “One is a planning portfolio that allows mining companies to optimize the extraction sequence in order to maximize the material that comes out of the mine. The second portfolio is our operations portfolio, which helps them optimize equipment and material movement during the actual mining operations and extraction activities.”


Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head

Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head
Updated 15 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head

Saudi Arabia, Australia set to enhance mining ties, says business council head
  • Bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and Australia has grown significantly, reaching $4 billion
  • Business council is actively working to further increase this figure

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Australia are poised to enhance cooperation in the mining sector with the launch of an inaugural bilateral forum this year, a senior official has announced. 

Speaking on the sidelines of the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, Sam Jamsheedi, the president of the Australian Saudi Business Council and Forum, highlighted the event’s potential to boost bilateral exploration and investment opportunities in the mining industry. 

He said that the inaugural Australia-Saudi Mining Forum would take place this year, marking a significant step in enhancing cooperation between the two countries.  

“One of the main pillars of Saudi Vision 2030 is mining and resources. And one of Australia’s biggest industries is mining. This forum is dedicated solely to mining opportunities for both sides, which is also supported by both governments as well. I believe this forum would kind of ignite another cycle of boom in both nations’ productivity,” Jamsheedi said. 

Jamsheedi pointed to Australia’s strong presence at the FMF, with over 300 Australian participants attending and the country hosting its first pavilion at the event. 

He added that events like FMF are crucial to elevate and strengthen the bilateral relationship between Australia and the Kingdom.  

Jamsheedi also elaborated on the Australian Saudi Business Council and Forum’s efforts over the past two years to facilitate trade and investment between the two nations. 

“It is the official business council for both sides. Our mandate is to represent Saudi Arabian opportunities in Australia and also be the voice for Australians who come to Saudi Arabia,” he said. 

Jamsheedi added that bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and Australia has grown significantly, reaching $4 billion, with a $600 million boost in the past year due to the council’s support. 

The business council is actively working to further increase this figure, focusing on key sectors such as mining, agriculture, food and beverages, infrastructure, technology, and services. 

As Saudi Arabia aims to attract $100 billion in foreign direct investments by 2030, Jamsheedi emphasized the importance of hosting more events like FMF and raising awareness among Australian investors about the opportunities in the Kingdom.