How Syria rebels’ stars aligned for Assad’s ouster

Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria December 8, 2024. (REUTERS)
Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria December 8, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 09 December 2024
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How Syria rebels’ stars aligned for Assad’s ouster

How Syria rebels’ stars aligned for Assad’s ouster
  • Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Doha on Sunday, said Erdogan’s effort in recent months to reach out to Assad failed and Turkiye “knew something was coming”

ISTANBUL/DAMASCUS: After 13 years of civil war, Syria’s opposition militias sensed an opportunity to loosen President Bashar Assad’s grip on power when, about six months ago, they communicated to Turkiye plans for a major offensive and felt they had received its tacit approval, two sources with knowledge of the planning said. Launched barely two weeks ago, the operation’s speedy success in achieving its initial goal — seizing Syria’s second city, Aleppo — took almost everybody by surprise. From there, in a little more than a week, the rebel alliance reached Damascus and on Sunday put an end to five decades of Assad family rule. The lightning advance relied on an almost perfect alignment of stars for the forces opposed to Assad: his army was demoralized and exhausted; his main allies, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, were severely weakened by conflict with Israel; and his other key military supporter, Russia, was distracted and losing interest.
There was no way the rebels could go ahead without first notifying Turkiye, which has been a main backer of the Syrian opposition from the war’s earliest days, said the sources, a diplomat in the region and a member of the Syrian opposition.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Rebels told Turkiye about attack plan six months ago

• Operation helped by Assad’s weakened allies and demoralized army

• Hezbollah’s withdrawal from Syria aided rebels, impacting Iranian influence

• Turkiye emerges as strong player in Syria

Turkiye has troops on the ground in northwest Syria, and provides support to some of the rebels who were intending to take part, including the Syrian National Army (SNA) — though it considers the main faction in the alliance, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), to be a terror group. The rebels’ bold plan was the brainchild of HTS and its leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, the diplomat said.
Because of his former ties to Al-Qaeda, Golani is designated as a terrorist by Washington, Europe and Turkiye. However, over the past decade, HTS, previously known as the Nusra Front, has tried to moderate its image, while running a quasi-state centered on Idlib, where, experts say, it levied taxes on commercial activities and the population.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s government, which struck a deal with Russia in 2020 to de-escalate fighting in northwestern Syria, has long opposed such a major rebel offensive, fearing it would lead to a new wave of refugees crossing its border.
However, the rebels sensed a stiffening of Ankara’s stance toward Assad earlier this year, the sources said, after he rebuffed repeated overtures from Erdogan aimed at advancing a political solution to the military stalemate, which has left Syria divided between the regime and a patchwork of rebel groups with an array of foreign backers.
The Syrian opposition source said the rebels had shown Turkiye details of the planning, after Ankara’s attempts to engage Assad had failed.
The message was: “That other path hasn’t worked for years — so try ours. You don’t have to do anything, just don’t intervene.” Reuters was unable to determine the exact nature of the communications. Hadi Al-Bahra, head of the internationally-recognized Syrian opposition abroad, told Reuters last week that HTS and SNA had had “limited” planning together ahead of the operation and agreed to “achieve cooperation and not clash with each other.” He added that Turkiye’s military saw what the armed groups were doing and discussing.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Doha on Sunday, said Erdogan’s effort in recent months to reach out to Assad failed and Turkiye “knew something was coming.”
However, Turkiye’s deputy minister for foreign affairs, Nuh Yilmaz, told a conference on Middle Eastern affairs in Bahrain on Sunday that Ankara was not behind the offensive, and did not provide its consent, saying it was concerned about instability.
Turkiye’s foreign and defense ministries did not respond directly to Reuters questions about an HTS-Ankara understanding about the Aleppo operation. In reply to questions about Turkiye’s awareness of battlefield preparations, a Turkish official told Reuters that the HTS “does not receive orders or direction from us (and) does not coordinate its operations with us either.”
The official said that “in that sense” it would not be correct to say that the operation in Aleppo was carried out with Turkiye’s approval or green light. Turkish intelligence agency MIT did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Reuters was unable to reach a representative for HTS.

VULNERABLE
The rebels struck when Assad was at his most vulnerable.
Distracted by wars elsewhere, his military allies Russia, Iran, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah failed to mobilize the kind of decisive firepower that had propped him up for years.
Syria’s weak armed forces were unable to resist. A regime source told Reuters that tanks and planes were left with no fuel because of corruption and looting — an illustration of just how hollowed out the Syrian state had become.
Over the past two years morale had severely eroded in the army, said the source, who requested anonymity because of fear of retribution.
Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a Middle-East focused think-tank, said the HTS-led coalition was stronger and more coherent than any previous rebel force during the war, “and a lot of that is Abu Mohammed Al-Golani’s doing.” But, he said, the regime’s weakness was the deciding factor.
“After they lost Aleppo like that, regime forces never recovered and the more the rebels advanced, the weaker Assad’s army got,” he said.
The pace of the rebel advances, with Hama being captured on Dec. 5 and Homs falling on or around Sunday at the same time government forces lost Damascus, exceeded expectations.
“There was a window of opportunity but no one expected the regime to crumble this fast. Everyone expected some fight,” said Bassam Al-Kuwatli, president of the Syrian Liberal Party, a small opposition group, who is based outside Syria.
A US official said on condition of anonymity that while Washington had been aware of Turkiye’s overall support for the rebels, it was not informed of any tacit Turkish approval for the Aleppo offensive. The White House National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Turkiye’s role.
US President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday said that Russia’s abandonment of Assad led to his downfall, adding that Moscow never should have protected him in the first place and then lost interest because of a war in Ukraine that never should have started.
Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday noted his country’s role in weakening Hezbollah, which sources told Reuters withdrew its remaining troops from Syria on Saturday.

GAZA FALLOUT
Sources familiar with Hezbollah deployments said the Iran-backed group, which propped up Assad early in the war, had already withdrawn many of its elite fighters from Syria over the last year to support the group as it waged hostilities with Israel — a conflict that spilled over from the Gaza war. Israel dealt Hezbollah heavy blows, particularly after launching an offensive in September, killing the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and many of its commanders and fighters. The rebel offensive in Syria began the same day as a ceasefire came into effect in the Lebanon conflict on Nov. 27. The sources familiar with Hezbollah said it did not want to engage in big battles in Syria as the group focused on starting a long road to recovery from the heavy blows.
For the rebel alliance, the withdrawal of Hezbollah presented a valuable opportunity. “We just wanted a fair fight between us and the regime,” the Syrian opposition source said.
Assad’s fall marks a major blow to Iranian influence in the Middle East, coming so swiftly after the killing of Nasrallah and the damage done by Israel to Hezbollah.
Turkiye, on the other hand, now appears to be Syria’s most powerful external player, with troops on the ground and access to the rebel leaders.
In addition to securing the return of Syrian refugees, Turkiye’s objectives include curbing the power of Syrian Kurdish groups that control wide areas of northeast Syria and are backed by the United States. Ankara deems them to be terrorists.
As part of the initial offensive, the Turkiye-backed SNA seized swathes of territory, including the city of Tel Refaat, from US-backed Kurdish forces. On Sunday, a Turkish security source said the rebels entered the northern city of Manbij after pushing the Kurds back again.
“Turkiye is the biggest outside winner here. Erdogan turned out to be on the right — or at least winning — side of history here because his proxies in Syria won the day,” said Birol Baskan, Turkiye-based political scientist and former non-resident scholar at Middle East Institute.

 


UN rights chief says transitional justice ‘crucial’ in Syria

UN rights chief says transitional justice ‘crucial’ in Syria
Updated 4 sec ago
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UN rights chief says transitional justice ‘crucial’ in Syria

UN rights chief says transitional justice ‘crucial’ in Syria
“The enforced disappearances, the torture, the use of chemical weapons, among other atrocity crimes, must be fully investigated,” Turk said
“And then justice must be served, fairly and impartially”

DAMASCUS: United Nations rights chief Volker Turk on Wednesday said transitional justice was “crucial” for Syria after the fall of Bashar Assad, during the first-ever visit by someone in his post to the country.
“Transitional justice is crucial as Syria moves forward,” the UN high commissioner for human rights said.
“Revenge and vengeance are never the answer.”
The United Nations has said Assad’s fall must be followed by accountability for him and others behind the crimes committed during his rule.
“The enforced disappearances, the torture, the use of chemical weapons, among other atrocity crimes, must be fully investigated,” Turk said, alluding notably to accusations Assad used sarin gas against his own people.
“And then justice must be served, fairly and impartially,” he said at a press conference in Damascus.
Since Islamist-led rebels seized Damascus last month, the new authorities have sought to reassure Syrians and the international community that they will respect the rights of minorities in rebuilding the country.
Turk said that, during his visit, he and the country’s new leader Ahmed Sharaa had discussed “the opportunities and challenges awaiting this new Syria.”
“He acknowledged and assured me of the importance of respect for human rights for all Syrians and all different components of Syrian society,” Turk said.
He said Sharaa also backed “the pursuit of healing, trust building and social cohesion and the reform of institutions.”
Turk also called for an easing of certain sanctions imposed on Syria under Assad’s rule.
“I... call for an urgent reconsideration of... sanctions with a view to lifting them,” he said, that they had had “a negative impact on the enjoyment of rights” of Syrian people.
Turk said he had visited Syria’s notorious Saydnaya prison and met with a former detainee, “a former soldier suspected of being a defector.”
“He told me of the cruel treatment he endured. I cannot even bear to share the stories of beatings and torture that he shared with me,” he said.

Negotiators resume talks on final details of Gaza ceasefire deal

Mourners react as they carry the body of a Palestinian infant killed in an Israeli strike, at Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital, in Gaza.
Mourners react as they carry the body of a Palestinian infant killed in an Israeli strike, at Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital, in Gaza.
Updated 5 min 26 sec ago
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Negotiators resume talks on final details of Gaza ceasefire deal

Mourners react as they carry the body of a Palestinian infant killed in an Israeli strike, at Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital, in Gaza.
  • Despite efforts to reach ceasefire, the Israeli military, Shin Bet internal intelligence agency and air force attacked 50 targets throughout Gaza over last 24 hours

DOHA/CAIRO/JERUSALEM: Negotiators in Qatar resumed talks on Wednesday hoping to hammer out the final details of a complex, phased ceasefire in Gaza aiming to end a conflict that has inflicted widespread death and destruction and upended the Middle East.
Officials from mediators Qatar, Egypt and the US as well as Israel and Hamas said on Tuesday that an agreement for a truce in the besieged Palestinian enclave and the release of hostages was closer than ever.
But a senior Hamas official told Reuters late on Tuesday that the Palestinian group had not yet delivered its response because it was still waiting for Israel to submit maps showing how its forces would withdraw from Gaza.
During months of on-off talks to achieve a truce in the devastating 15-month-old war, both sides have previously said they were close to a ceasefire only to hit last-minute obstacles. The broad outlines of the current deal have been in place since mid-2024.
If successful, the planned phased ceasefire could halt fighting that has decimated Gaza, killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, displaced most of the enclave’s pre-war population of 2.3 million and is still killing dozens of people a day.
That in turn could ease tensions across the wider Middle East, where the war has fueled conflict in the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, and raised fears of all-out war between Israel and Iran.
Israel launched its assault in Gaza after Hamas-led fighters stormed across its borders on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, Israeli forces have killed more than 46,700 Palestinians in Gaza, according to health officials in the enclave.
Palestinians were once again hoping the latest talks would deliver some relief from Israeli air strikes, and ease a deep humanitarian crisis.
“We are waiting for the ceasefire and the truce. May God complete it for us in goodness, bless us with peace, and allow us to return to our homes,” said Amal Saleh, 54, a Gazan displaced by the war.
“Even if the schools are bombed, destroyed, and ruined, we just want to know that we are finally living in peace.”
Under the plan, Israel would recover around 100 remaining hostages and bodies from among those captured in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel that precipitated the war. In return it would free Palestinian detainees.
The latest draft is complicated and sensitive. Under its terms, the first steps would feature a six-week initial ceasefire.
The plan also includes a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza and the return of displaced Palestinians to the north of the enclave.
The deal would also require Hamas to release 33 Israeli hostages along with other steps.
The draft stipulates negotiations over a second phase of the agreement to begin by the 16th day of phase one. Phase two includes the release of all remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers.
Even if the warring sides agree to the deal on the table, that agreement still needs further negotiation before there is a final ceasefire and the release of all the hostages
If it all goes smoothly, the Palestinians, Arab states and Israel still need to agree on a vision for post-war Gaza, a massive task involving security guarantees for Israel and billions of dollars in investment for rebuilding.
One unanswered question is who will run Gaza after the war.
Israel has rejected any involvement by Hamas, which ran Gaza before the war, but it has been almost equally opposed to rule by the Palestinian Authority, the body set up under the Oslo interim peace accords three decades ago that has limited governing power in the West Bank.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa said on Wednesday that the Palestinian Authority must be the sole governing power in Gaza after the war.
Israeli attacks
Despite the efforts to reach a ceasefire, the Israeli military, the Shin Bet internal intelligence agency and the air force attacked about 50 targets throughout Gaza over the last 24 hours, Shin Bet and the military said in a statement on Wednesday.
Israeli strikes killed at least 13 Palestinians across the enclave. Those included seven people who were in a school sheltering displaced families in Gaza City, and six others killed in separate airstrikes on houses in Deir Al-Balah, Bureij camp and Rafah, medics said.
Families of hostages in Israel were caught between hope and despair.
“We can’t miss this moment. This is the last moment; we can save them,” said Hadas Calderon, whose husband Ofer and children Sahar and Erez were abducted.
Israel says 98 hostages are being held in Gaza, about half of whom are believed to be alive. They include Israelis and non-Israelis. Of the total, 94 were seized in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel and four have been held in Gaza since 2014.


Israel struck Gaza ‘humanitarian zone’ almost 100 times, BBC analysis finds

People mourn Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in the Gaza Strip, January 15
People mourn Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in the Gaza Strip, January 15
Updated 41 min 34 sec ago
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Israel struck Gaza ‘humanitarian zone’ almost 100 times, BBC analysis finds

People mourn Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in the Gaza Strip, January 15
  • Naval, aerial attacks hit stretch of land housing more than 1m Palestinians
  • ‘Heavy fire is recurrent in this area despite Israel’s unilateral ‘humanitarian designation,’ says aid official

LONDON: The Israeli military hit its own designated “humanitarian zone” in Gaza 97 times since May, analysis by the BBC has shown.
Israel established the area in October 2023, and told Palestinians in Gaza to relocate there for safety.
It was later expanded to include the urban centers of Khan Younis and Deir Al-Balah.
Despite intending to “keep innocent civilians out of harms way,” Israeli forces struck buildings within the zone 97 times since May 2024, according to BBC Verify.
The area covers a significant and densely populated strip of land on the Mediterranean Sea.
More than 1 million people — many living in tents — are believed to be living inside the Israeli-imposed zone, humanitarian groups have said.
Since the new year, Israel has carried out at least 22 strikes in the area.
The 97 strikes since last May have killed 550 Palestinians.
Israeli military officials have acknowledged 28 of the attacks, and the BBC said it could not confirm that all 97 are the result of Israeli operations.
In a statement to the BBC, the Israeli military said that it was targeting Hamas fighters in the “humanitarian zone.”
It accused Hamas of international law violations, using civilians as human shields and launching rockets from the zone.
Gavin Kelleher, Gaza access manager for the Norwegian Refugee Council, told the BBC that Israel had conducted “near daily” strikes inside the zone, using naval vessels and drones.
“Heavy fire is recurrent in this area despite its (Israel’s) unilateral ‘humanitarian’ designation,” he added.
“The Israeli military appears keen to maintain the illusion of a ‘humanitarian zone’ that remains a certain size, yet that zone can be subject to ‘evacuation orders’ at any time and be targeted.”
One resident in the zone, Khaled Abdel Rahman, told the BBC that fear was “dominating the lives” of Palestinians in the area.
“We were displaced to Khan Younis because it was designated as a safe zone, but in fact we find nothing here but insecurity,” he said.
Due to Israel’s ban on foreign media operating in Gaza, BBC Verify used Palestinian and Israeli social media channels to document the strikes.
Researchers analyzed more than 300 photos and videos posted from the “humanitarian zone” since May.
The deadliest strike in the area came on July 13, and killed more than 90 Palestinians, Gaza’s Health Ministry, medics and first responders said.
Nine strikes hit within 100 meters of buildings belonging to Al-Aqsa Hospital complex in Deir Al-Balah.
Four struck within 150 meters of Khan Younis’ Nasser Medical Complex.
The Israeli military told the BBC that the attacks were launched “against terrorists and terror infrastructures including rocket launchers, weapons warehouse and manufacturing sites, operational apartments, underground infrastructure, operational headquarters and terrorist hideouts.”


Turkish prosecutors target the Istanbul Bar Association

Turkish prosecutors target the Istanbul Bar Association
Updated 15 January 2025
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Turkish prosecutors target the Istanbul Bar Association

Turkish prosecutors target the Istanbul Bar Association

ISTANBUL: Turkish prosecutors have filed a lawsuit against the Istanbul Bar Association for “terrorist propaganda” over its calls for a probe into journalist deaths in Syria, the country’s main lawyers association has said.
“The Istanbul public prosecutor’s office has begun legal action to remove Istanbul Bar Association president Ibrahim Kaboglu and his executive board,” Turkish Bar Association head Erinc Sagkan wrote on X late Tuesday.
The lawsuit was filed several weeks after the Istanbul Bar Association demanded an investigation into the deaths of two journalists from Turkiye’s Kurdish-majority southeast who were killed in northern Syria.
Nazim Dastan, 32, and Cihan Bilgin, died on December 19 when their car was hit by what the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said was a “Turkish drone strike” during clashes between an Ankara-backed militia and the SDF, a US-backed group of mainly Kurdish fighters.
Turkiye sees the SDF as a terror group tied to the PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency on Turkish soil.
The pair worked for Syrian Kurdish media outlets Rojnews and the Anha news agency, and the strike denounced by the Turkish Journalists’ Union.
The Turkish military insists it never targets civilians but only terror groups.
At the time, the Istanbul Bar Association issued a statement saying “targeting members of the press in conflict zones is a violation of International Humanitarian Law and the Geneva Convention.” It demanded “a proper investigation be conducted into the murder of two of our citizens.”
Prosecutors immediately opened an inquiry into allegations of “making propaganda for a terrorist organization” and “publicly spreading false information” on grounds the two journalists had ties to the PKK.
The Istanbul Bar Association denounced the lawsuit as having “no legal basis” and said its executive council was “fulfilling its duties and responsibilities in line with the Constitution, democracy and the law.”
Turkish Bar Association head Sagkan said: “Although the methods may change, the only thing that has remained constant for the past half century is the effort by the government’s supporters to pressurise and stifle those they see as opponents.”


UNRWA chief vows to continue aid to Palestinians despite Israeli ban

UNRWA chief vows to continue aid to Palestinians despite Israeli ban
Updated 15 January 2025
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UNRWA chief vows to continue aid to Palestinians despite Israeli ban

UNRWA chief vows to continue aid to Palestinians despite Israeli ban

OSLO: The UN’s Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA will continue to provide aid to people in the Palestinian territories despite an Israeli ban due to be implemented by the end of January, its director said Wednesday.
“We will ... stay and deliver,” UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini told a conference in Oslo. “UNRWA’s local staff will remain and continue to provide emergency assistance and where possible, education and primary health care,” he said.