GAZA CITY, 18 November 2004 — Convinced that former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas is unable to unite the Palestinians, several members of the so-called “old guard” are preparing to announce their candidacy for the presidency in next January’s elections.
After four days of intense talks with all factions Abbas has failed to secure the level of support he needs to discourage others from standing.
Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have said unless the Palestine Liberation Organization is restructured to include them on the basis of a new program, they would boycott the election.
The two radical groups, especially well entrenched in Gaza, are believed to have the support of between 25 and 40 percent of the electorate.
Some of the old guard in Yasser Arafat’s Fatah organization are trying to launch the candidacy of Hani Al Hassan, one of the founding fathers of the movement. They believe that Hassan, who has been ambivalent toward peace talks with Israel, might be able to draw support from both Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Abbas has won the support of most members of the current government headed by Prime Minister Ahmad Qorei. Muhammad Dahlan, the charismatic former security chief in Gaza, who had presidential aspirations of his own, also backs him.
The biggest threat to Abbas’ candidacy could come from Marwan Barghouti, the imprisoned militant leader who is seen by many as Palestine’s “Nelson Mandela.” The Israeli authorities have said they would not release Barghouti, thus trying to kill his electoral prospects.
But Barghouti’s friends are already in negotiation with the Palestinian Authority to allow his name to figure on the ballot papers. According to several opinion polls Barghouti is the most popular political figure in the West Bank with 31 percent of support, far ahead of Abbas who receives 4 percent.
Another potential candidate is Rafiq Al-Natsha who is backed by a number of businessmen and technocrats in the West Bank. Also likely to stand is Monib Al-Masri, reputed to be the richest Palestinian businessman.
The Fatah’s young guard prefers jailed uprising leader Barghouti over elder statesman Mahmoud Abbas, the 69-year-old establishment candidate. Opposition groups would like to take advantage of this internal friction to oust Fatah as the dominant Palestinian force for the first time, though chances of that are seen as slim.
With Arafat gone, younger Palestinians — who rose to prominence fighting Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip — are considering a challenge.
They have long felt underrepresented in the main Fatah decision-making bodies, currently dominated by officials Arafat brought with him when he returned to the Palestinian territories from exile in 1994.
Also, many Palestinians consider the older generation of politicians to be tainted by corruption and out of touch with the masses.
“If the Fatah Central Committee wants to restrict choosing the Fatah candidate to itself and the Revolutionary Council, we, the young generation in Fatah, will choose our own candidate,” said Qadoura Fares, a prominent young leader.
The 16-member Central Committee and the 126-man Revolutionary Council have indicated their preference for Mahmoud Abbas.
“So far Abu Mazen is the strongest candidate within the movement,” said Palestinian Authority spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeinah, referring to Abbas by his nickname.
Fares said unless members of the younger generation have a say in the decision, they would choose to field jailed uprising leader Marwan Barghouti as their own candidate.
“There are many signs that Fatah will not agree on one candidate, because the old guard wants to limit the choice to themselves,” Fares said.
But Barghouti, 45, a fiery orator, is currently serving five life terms in an Israeli jail for his role in attacks that killed five people, and Israel has vowed to keep him there.
Splitting the Fatah vote could open the door for an independent candidate to win the election, sidelining Fatah for the first time.
Monib Al-Masri, 66, a billionaire industrialist and longtime friend of Arafat, is considering running.
He believes a successful businessman could be just what the Palestinians — who have seen their economy ruined during four years of violence — are looking for in a leader.
“A businessman knows how to succeed, to achieve goals and how to build a strong economy,” Al-Masri said. “We need a man who can take care of our economic growth.”
Al-Masri has another trump card. The popular Islamic groups, while not running their own candidates, would be eager for the opportunity to bring down Fatah by voting for an independent.
“The Islamists and the (secular radical) camp will have a chance to topple Fatah and Fatah rule by supporting an independent candidate like Monib Al-Masri,” said Palestinian analyst Hani Al-Masri, who is not related to the industrialist. Groups like Hamas and the Islamic Jihad do not plan to field a candidate for Palestinian Authority president, rejecting the interim peace deals with Israel that established the Palestinian government. However, the groups said they would not call on their supporters to boycott the election.
In the face of the possible consequences of a split, Abbas supporters hope their own rebels will back down.
“Yes, Fatah has differences and disagreements,” Abu Rudeinah said. “But at the end of the day Fatah leaders and activists are aware of their common interests and their common interest is to find one candidate and support him.”
